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US: ISM preview for April

Fri, May 1 2009, 07:33 GMT
by Peter Possing Andersen, Signe Roed-Frederiksen

Danske Bank A/S


  • March’s ISM figure rose slightly to 36.3 from 35.8 in February. Although the composite rose only marginally, the report included stronger details, as new orders rose from 33.1 to 41.2, while inventories dropped from 37.0 to 32.2. The improved orders-inventory balance bodes well for April’s release. The prices index rose slightly from 29.0 to 31.0.
  • The readings from the local indices have been very positive this month, with improvements in all regions. Overall the local indices have improved by 4.6 index points from 35.6 to 40.1, suggesting a significant improvement in the April ISM. The local price indices suggest only a minor pick-up in the ISM price index to 32.6 in April from 31.0 in March.
  • For April, we expect a significant increase in the ISM index to 40, which would be a positive surprise compared to the consensus median forecast of 38.4. There could even be some slight upward risk to our estimate.
  • Going forward, we still expect to see a continued recovery in the ISM as production is ramped up to match the pace of demand. This should take place over the coming three to six months as inventory destocking is completed.

Published on  Fri, May 1 2009, 07:37 GMT


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