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USA: Preview on June's ISM
Tue, Jul 1 2008, 08:30 GMT
by Peter Possing Andersen
- • May's ISM rose to 49.6 from 48.6 in April. The increase was mainly driven by the production index and the new orders index, and can mainly be explained by strong external demand and very lean inventories.
- • All local indices have shown a declining trend this month, especially Richmond. When looking into the details we find that all local indices have shown declines in the Production and New Orders subcomponents, and only Empire and Chicago showed an increase in Employment. This reduces the overall signal from the local indices which are pointing to an ISM level of 47.9, down from 49.4. When looking at the price indices, the local indices indicate an increase of 3.4 index points.
- • Tomorrow we expect an ISM reading of 48.0 for June, which is below the consensus forecast of 48.6 but once again higher than our one-month model forecast. We still expect the ISM to weaken in the coming months due to weakening domestic demand. However, the downside compared to our model may be limited due to dynamic effects from the tax rebates, which have had an early impact on consumer demand.
Published on Tue, Jul 1 2008, 09:28 GMT
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