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Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3112 after falling to 1.3052 in early trading brought about on worries over the Spanish deficit. Later in the day the markets rose on new of a positive German ZEW report, the euro began to climb but was stopped midway when US retail sales were released exceed market expectations.
Investors are now positioning themselves for the FOMC decision and minutes due later in the day on Tuesday. There was little news from Europe today, with states and a few indications
Van Rompuy claims that the conclusion of a debt relief program for Greece was the strongest evidence yet that the continent is getting its debt crisis under control.
German investor sentiment jumped sharply in March to its highest level since June 2010. The ZEW, said its sentiment indicator rose to 22.3 from 5.4 in February
Spain will implement further budget cuts requested by EU — Spain says EU “largely accepted” its arguments for leniency on targets.
US Retail sales climbed to a five-month high in February, as rising gasoline prices weren’t enough to choke off demand for cars, clothing and other goods. The Commerce Department said Tuesday that retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1%.
Economic Data March 13, 2012 actual v. forecast
| JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) | -1.70% | 0.4% | 1.8% |
| GBP | RICS House Price Balance | -13% | -14% | -16% |
| AUD | Home Loans (MoM) | -1.20% | -0.1% | 2.1% |
| AUD | NAB Business Confidence | 1 | 4 | |
| JPY | Interest Rate Decision | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| EUR | French CPI (MoM) | 0.40% | 0.40% | -0.4% |
| HUF | Hungarian CPI (YoY) | 5.90% | 5.8% | 5.5% |
| CHF | PPI (MoM) | 0.80% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| SEK | Swedish CPI (YoY) | 1.90% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| GBP | Trade Balance | -7.5B | -7.8B | -7.2B |
| EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 22.3 | 10.5 | 5.4 |
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | 11 | 3.8 | -8.1 |
| USD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) | 0.90% | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| USD | Retail Sales (MoM) | 1.10% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
Economic Calendar March 14, 2012
10:30 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus 1.9% 2.0%
10:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 6.0K 6.9K
The Average Earnings Index measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.
11:00 EUR CPI (YoY) 2.7% 2.7%
11:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.7% -1.1%
11:00 EUR Core CPI (YoY) 1.6% 1.5%
This is a triple report covering all of the eurozone. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
13:30 USD Current Account -114.0B -110.0B
The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports the data can have a sizable affect on the USD.
13:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 0.6% 0.3%
The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.
15:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy
Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)
Mar 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Mar 14 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Mar 14 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Mar 14 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21
Mar 14 18:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds
Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction
Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt
Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction
Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22
EUR/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
USD/JPY Forecast Fundamental Analysis
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)
USD/JPY is trading close to the open of 82.23, currently sitting at 82.19 after a crazy morning of trading. Investors anticipating the BoJ decision and statements pushed the Yen as high as 82.48 and as low as 81.97 but after a short time the markets leveled close to the open and have stayed within the channel.
Japan, like the rest of the world is awaiting the Fed decision and statements late Tuesday afternoon.
JUST RELEASED
”Overseas economies still have not emerged from a deceleration phase on the whole but some improvement has recently been observed in the U.S. economy and the sluggish European economy has stopped deteriorating,” the central bank said. The BoJ kept key rates and also announced it would increase the amount of loans available through its growth supporting facility by 2 trillion yen ($24.35 billion)
Economic Data March 12-13, 2012 actual v. forecast
| 8:00 | EUR | German WPI (MoM) | 1.00% | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 10:00 | EUR | Italian GDP (QoQ) | -0.70% | -0.7% | -0.7% | |
| 11:30 | EUR | German 6-Month Bubill Auction | 0.053% | 0.076% | ||
| 12:00 | ALL | OECD Composite Leading Indicators | 100.9 | 100.6 | 100.5 | |
| 16:30 | USD | 3-Month Bill Auction | 0.095% | 0.080% | ||
| 19:00 | USD | Federal Budget Balance | -231.7B | -229.3B | -27.4B | |
| 22:45 | NZD | FPI (MoM) | 0.60% | 0.0% | ||
| Mar. 13 | 0:50 | JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) | -1.70% | 0.4% | 1.8% |
| 1:01 | GBP | RICS House Price Balance | -13% | -14% | -16% | |
| 1:30 | AUD | Home Loans (MoM) | -1.20% | -0.1% | 2.1% | |
| 1:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence | 1 | 4 |
Upcoming Economic Events that effect the AUS, NZD and the JPY
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 4.20%
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index measures the change in the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. On the index, a level above 100.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.
00:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 1.3 -6.1
The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing Conditions Index measures business sentiment in manufacturing. The data is derived from a survey of large Japanese manufacturers. It is a key indicator of the strength of the Japanese economy, which relies heavily on the manufacturing industry. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; a level below indicates worsening conditions. This survey may help to predict the Bank of Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index which is generally released about a week later.
05:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) 2.1% 2.0%
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
06:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report
The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective
13:30 USD Current Account -114.0B -110.0B
The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports the data can have a sizable affect on the USD.
13:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 0.6% 0.3%
The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.
15:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy
Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)
Mar 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Mar 14 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Mar 14 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Mar 14 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21
Mar 14 18:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds
Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction
Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt
Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction
Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22
USD/JPY Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
GBP/USD Forecast Fundamental Analysis
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is currently at 1.5729 after the greenback was strong in early trading, pushing the pound down to 1.5642; the GBP seems to be rebounding as investors position themselves for the news from the Fed.
There was very little available news today, Germany reported an above expectations ZEW sentiment and US retail sales came in above forecasts.
Van Rompuy claims that the conclusion of a debt relief program for Greece was the strongest evidence yet that the continent is getting its debt crisis under control.
A closely-watched gauge of German investor sentiment jumped sharply in March to its highest level since June 2010. The Mannheim-based Center for European Economic Research, or ZEW, said its sentiment indicator rose to 22.3 from 5.4 in February
Spain will implement further budget cuts requested by EU — Spain says EU “largely accepted” its arguments for leniency on targets — Spain could start discussing how to implement further cuts Tuesday.
US Retail sales climbed to a five-month high in February, as rising gasoline prices weren’t enough to choke off demand for cars, clothing and other goods. The Commerce Department said Tuesday that retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1%
Economic Data March 13, 2012 actual v. forecast
| JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) | -1.70% | 0.4% | 1.8% |
| GBP | RICS House Price Balance | -13% | -14% | -16% |
| AUD | Home Loans (MoM) | -1.20% | -0.1% | 2.1% |
| AUD | NAB Business Confidence | 1 | 4 | |
| JPY | Interest Rate Decision | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| EUR | French CPI (MoM) | 0.40% | 0.40% | -0.4% |
| HUF | Hungarian CPI (YoY) | 5.90% | 5.8% | 5.5% |
| CHF | PPI (MoM) | 0.80% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| SEK | Swedish CPI (YoY) | 1.90% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| GBP | Trade Balance | -7.5B | -7.8B | -7.2B |
| EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 22.3 | 10.5 | 5.4 |
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | 11 | 3.8 | -8.1 |
| USD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) | 0.90% | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| USD | Retail Sales (MoM) | 1.10% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
Economic Calendar March 14, 2012
10:30 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus 1.9% 2.0%
10:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 6.0K 6.9K
The Average Earnings Index measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.
11:00 EUR CPI (YoY) 2.7% 2.7%
11:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.7% -1.1%
11:00 EUR Core CPI (YoY) 1.6% 1.5%
This is a triple report covering all of the eurozone. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
13:30 USD Current Account -114.0B -110.0B
The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports the data can have a sizable affect on the USD.
13:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 0.6% 0.3%
The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.
15:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy
Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)
Mar 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Mar 14 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Mar 14 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Mar 14 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21
Mar 14 18:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds
Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction
Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt
Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction
Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22
GBP/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
USD/CHF Forecast Fundamental Analysis
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CHF trading at 0.9198 after the USD piqued earlier on positive retail sales data, the Swissie began to move up as investors began to think about the FOMC decision and minutes. Although the market does not expect a rate change, the minutes might give some indication as to what to expect from the Feds in the near term.
Otherwise there was little news in the markets, the ZEW consumer sentiment came back much over forecast.
Spanish deficits became the focus for the EU.
Economic Data March 13, 2012 actual v. forecast
| JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) | -1.70% | 0.4% | 1.8% |
| GBP | RICS House Price Balance | -13% | -14% | -16% |
| AUD | Home Loans (MoM) | -1.20% | -0.1% | 2.1% |
| AUD | NAB Business Confidence | 1 | 4 | |
| JPY | Interest Rate Decision | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| EUR | French CPI (MoM) | 0.40% | 0.40% | -0.4% |
| HUF | Hungarian CPI (YoY) | 5.90% | 5.8% | 5.5% |
| CHF | PPI (MoM) | 0.80% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| SEK | Swedish CPI (YoY) | 1.90% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| GBP | Trade Balance | -7.5B | -7.8B | -7.2B |
| EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 22.3 | 10.5 | 5.4 |
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | 11 | 3.8 | -8.1 |
| USD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) | 0.90% | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| USD | Retail Sales (MoM) | 1.10% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
Economic Calendar March 14, 2012
10:30 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus 1.9% 2.0%
10:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 6.0K 6.9K
The Average Earnings Index measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.
11:00 EUR CPI (YoY) 2.7% 2.7%
11:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.7% -1.1%
11:00 EUR Core CPI (YoY) 1.6% 1.5%
This is a triple report covering all of the eurozone. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
13:30 USD Current Account -114.0B -110.0B
The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports the data can have a sizable affect on the USD.
13:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 0.6% 0.3%
The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.
15:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy
Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)
Mar 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Mar 14 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Mar 14 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Mar 14 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21
Mar 14 18:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds
Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction
Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt
Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction
Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22
EUR/CHF Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
