• We present an updated outlook on the Polish economy taking into account the latest economic releases for July and August.
  • The outlook for the Polish economy continues to look bright. Taking into account the data on Q2 GDP growth, we have revised our growth forecasts up for this year and next on the back of a more promising outlook for investments and exports. We now expect the Polish economy to grow 3.1% y/y in 2010 and 4.6% y/y in 2011.
  • Polish external balances have improved markedly. However, there does not seem to be much further improvement in sight. Our models indicate that the Polish trade balance and current account balance should remain at current levels going forward. However, we regard the current deficit levels as sustainable.
  • We are now more optimistic on the outlook for the Polish labour market. Polish economic growth should return to trend growth around Q4 this year and the rise in unemployment should therefore be close to the peak. We now expect Polish unemployment to decline through 2011 and 2012.