In the week ended January 30, initial claims surprised again on the upside of ex-pectations. Initial claims rose by 8 000 from an upwardly revised 472 000 to 480 000, while a figure of 455 000 was forecasted. Also continuing claims, which are re-ported with an extra week lag, surprised on the upside. In the week ended January 23, continuing claims rose marginally from a revised 4 600 000 to 4 602 000, while markets were looking for a figure of 4 581 000. Claims in California are still at ex-traordinary high level due to the backlog problem which has not yet been worked-off. Nevertheless, ahead of the payrolls report, this causes nervous-ness.
In the US, factory orders rose by 1.0% M/M in December, while the consensus was looking for an increase by only 0.5% M/M. The November figure was slightly down-wardly revised from 1.1% M/M to 1.0% M/M. The breakdown shows that both dura-ble and non-durable orders rose by 1.0% M/M. Ex-transportation, factory orders rose by 1.2% M/M. The inventory/shipments ratio dropped from 1.32 to 1.29, its lowest level since November 2008.
EMU: German factory orders disappoint in December
In December, German factory orders dropped by 2.3% M/M, while the consensus was looking for a slight increase (by 0.2% M/M). Last month’s figure was already upwardly revised from 0.2% M/M to 2.7% M/M. The details show that both intermedi-ate (-3.2% M/M) and capital (-2.5% M/M) goods declined sharply, while consumer goods rose significantly (1.8% M/M). The fourth quarter German factory orders are disappointing after strong orders in the second and third quarter and might indicate that the recovery is losing steam.
