University of Michigan consumer confidence dropped for the second consecutive month in November. The headline index fell from 70.6 to 66.0, while a marginal improvement was forecasted. The breakdown shows deterioration in both the economic conditions (69.6 from 73.7) and economic outlook (63.7 from 68.6). The jobless rate which jumped above 10%, to a 26-year high, is weighing on consumer sentiment in the United States.
In September, the US trade balance showed a significant widening in the deficit, while the consensus was looking for only a slight increase. The trade deficit expanded from a revised $30.8B to $36.5B, while the consensus was looking for a deficit of $31.8B. Looking at the details, exports rose for the fifth consecutive month (by 2.9% M/M), while imports increased by 5.8% M/M. Excluding petroleum, the trade deficit rose from $14.3B to $15.9B, which indicates that the expanding deficit was only partially oil-related. This outcome suggests a slight downward revision in third quarter GDP.
EMU: euro zone economy climbs out of recession
In the third quarter, the euro zone economy climbed out of recession after five consecutive quarters of negative growth. According to the advance estimate, euro zone GDP expanded by 0.4% Q/Q, slightly below the consensus estimate of 0.5% Q/Q. National details showed that growth in Germany and France accelerated, while Spanish GDP stayed in negative territory for the sixth consecutive quarter. Next month, we will receive the breakdown, which will give us a more complete view.
