In the week ended October 17, initial claims surprised on the upside of expectations rising by 11 000, from an upwardly revised 520 000 to 531 000, while a figure of 515 000 was expected. Continuing claims, which are reported with an extra week lag, dropped by 98 000, from an, upwardly revised 6 021 000 to 5 923 000, while the consensus was looking for an outcome of 5 970 000. Although the initial claims disappointed somewhat, the trend is still downward as the four-week moving average dropped from 533 000 to 532 250 and this week’s initial claims might also be distorted as the week included the Columbus Day Holiday.
In September, US leading indicators surprised somewhat on the upside of expectations rising by 1.0%, while an increase by 0.8% was forecasted. The previous figure was however downwardly revised from 0.6% to 0.4%. The breakdown shows slight increases in average workweek (-0.06%) and building permits (-0.03%), while all other components increased. The index rose now for the sixth consecutive month, with significant increases in consumer expectations and jobless claims, providing further evidence that the US economy is recovering.
In August, the US FHFA house price index showed an unexpected decline. On a monthly basis, house prices dropped by 0.3% M/M, while the consensus was looking for an increase by 0.3% M/M. This is the first decline in four months, but we wouldn’t pay too much attention to it as the data are rather outdated.
Other: UK retail sales disappoint again in September
In the UK, retail sales came out flat on a monthly basis, while the consensus was looking for an increase by 0.5% M/M. The previous figure was however upwardly revised from 0.0% M/M to 0.1% M/M. Looking at the details, food stores dropped by 0.1% M/M, while non-food stores came out flat. In the non-food sector, weakness was based in textile, clothing & footwear (-0.5% M/M), while non-specialised stores rose by 0.5% M/M. The data indicate that consumers are still reluctant to spend on clothing and food due to high unemployment.
