In August, Conference Board’s consumer confidence rose from an upwardly revised 47.4 to 54.1, significantly above the consensus estimate of 47.9. Looking at the details, the improvement was led by an increase in the expectations sub-index (73.5 from 63.4), but also the present situation rose somewhat (24.9 from 23.3). Consumers became also less pessimistic on the labour market conditions as the labour market differential rose from -44.8 to -40.9.
In June, S&P Case Shiller house prices showed a further slowing in the pace of decline from an upwardly revised -17.02% Y/Y to -15.44% Y/Y, while the consensus was looking for a figure of -16.40% Y/Y. On a monthly basis, house prices rose by 1.39% M/M, the second consecutive increase. Also the house price index rose for the second consecutive month in June. On a monthly basis, the house price index rose by 0.5% M/M, slightly more than expected. These data provide further evidence that the US housing market might have hit the bottom and that a correction is near.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index stayed unchanged at 14 in August, while a slight increase was expected. The breakdown shows an increase in shipments (21 from 16), capacity utilization (22 from 14), number of employees (0 from -5) and average workweek (16 from 14), while new order volume (18 from 24) and wages (6 from 8) deteriorated somewhat. Nevertheless, the lower than expected outcome shouldn’t be too worrying after the impressive rebound in the previous months.
