In July, the empire state manufacturing index surprised on the upside of expectations as the headline index rose from -9.41 to -0.55, while the consensus was looking for a figure of -5.0. The detail show that both new orders (5.89 from -8.15) and shipments (10.97 from -4.84) rose to positive territory, but also number of employees (- 20.83 from -21.84) and average workweek (-19.79 from -21.84) improved. Delivery time, inventories and unfilled orders dropped somewhat in July, while both prices paid (10.42 from -5.75) and prices received (-8.33 from -12.64) increased. It is an encouraging sign that new orders are expanding for the first time since September 2008.

US industrial production fell for the eight consecutive month in June. On a monthly basis, industrial orders fell by 0.4% M/M, while a decline by 0.6% M/M was forecasted and the previous figure was downwardly revised from -1.1% M/M to -1.2% M/M. The breakdown shows that the decline was again driven by the manufacturing sector (-0.6% M/M) partially due to auto plant closures. But also mining (-0.5% M/M) dropped, while utilities rose by 0.8% M/M. metric

In June, consumer prices rose by 0.7% M/M broadly in line with the consensus estimate. On a yearly basis however, prices dropped by 1.4% Y/Y (from -1.3% Y/Y). The details show that most of the increase in the monthly figure was energy related (7.4% M/M). Core CPI, excluding food and energy, fell slightly from 1.8% Y/Y to 1.7% Y/Y. In the coming months, the annual inflation rate might drop somewhat further, but fears for deflation eased.


EMU: CPI falls in negative territory in June

In June, the final figure of euro zone CPI confirmed the first estimate of -0.1% Y/Y. On a monthly basis however, consumer prices rose by 0.2% M/M, perfectly in line with expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, unexpectedly dropped from 1.5% Y/Y to 1.4% Y/Y. The details show significant declines in energy (-11.8% M/M), transport (-4.8% M/M), communication (-1.0% M/M) and housing (-0.5% M/M), but also food prices (-0.2% M/M) dropped in June. Prices of alcohol, tobacco (4.4% M/M), miscellaneous (2.1% M/M), hotels, restaurants (1.9% M/M) household equipment (1.8% M/M) and health (1.4% M/M) rose significantly.


Other: UK jobless claims surprise again on the downside

In the UK, jobless claims rose by 23 800 in June, while the consensus was looking for in increase by 41 300. Also the previous figure was downwardly revised from 39 300 to 30 800. The ILO unemployment rate, on the contrary, came out above expectations rising from 7.2% to 7.6%, while a figure of 7.4% was forecasted. After the massive job losses in February, UK unemployment figures came out constantly below expectations adding to the signs that the worst of the UK recession might be behind us.