US retail sales rose for the second consecutive month in June. On a monthly basis, retail sales grew by 0.6% M/M, while the consensus was looking for an increase by 0.4% M/M. The improvement was led by a 2.3% M/M increase in vehicles and parts and a 5.0% M/M rise in sales at gasoline stations, while building materials and eating & drinking dropped significantly. Retail sales less autos rose by 0.3% M/M. As was also the case last month, part of the increase in retail sales was due to the rising oil price, excluding these effects, retail sales were almost flat in the previous months.

In June, producer prices rose by 1.8% M/M, twice as much as expected, while the year-on-year figure rose from -5.0% Y/Y to -4.6% Y/Y. The details showed that the increase was largely due to rising oil prices, but also core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5% M/M, due to gains in for example cars and pharmaceuticals.

In May, US business inventories declined for the ninth consecutive month. On a monthly basis, business inventories fell by 1.0% M/M, while a decline by 0.8% M/M was expected. The previous figure was downwardly revised from -1.1% M/M to - 1.3% M/M. The inventory/sales ratio dropped further from 1.43 to 1.42 and sales fell by 0.1% M/M. The positive news is that the drop in inventories is slowing somewhat.


EMU: Industrial production disappoints in May

In May, euro zone industrial production rose for the first time in nine months. On a monthly basis, industrial production rose by 0.5% M/M, while the consensus was looking for an increase by 1.5% M/M. The previous figure was however upwardly revised from -1.9% M/M to -1.4% M/M. Looking at the details, the improvement was led by a 1.2% M/M increase in capital goods, while non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.8% M/M and intermediate goods increased by 0.3% M/M. Durable consumer goods dropped by 2.9% M/M and energy fell by 0.2% M/M. The national breakdown shows that strength in Germany (3.7% M/M) and France (2.6% M/M) was offset by a weak performance of Spain (-2.9% M/M).

The German ZEW indicator showed an unexpected decline in July. The headline (economic sentiment) indicator fell from 44.8 to 39.5, while a slight increase was forecasted. The current situation index on the contrary rose marginally from -89.7 to - 89.3. Although the outcome is a bit disappointing, it was no surprise after the impressive rebound in the previous months.


Other: UK CPI falls below 2% target

In the UK, CPI inflation rose by 0.3% M/M in June, exactly matching expectations. The details show significant declines in clothing & footwear (-1.4% M/M), household services (-0.9% M/M) and seasonal food (-0.4% M/M), while household goods (1.4% M/M), auto-related (1.6% M/M), leisure goods (0.8% M/M), fares, travel costs (0.7% M/M) and personal goods & services (0.5% M/M) increased significantly. On a yearly basis, CPI dropped below the BoE target of 2.0%, while core CPI stayed unchanged at 1.6% Y/Y.