Conference Board consumer confidence improved from an upwardly revised 26.9 to 39.2 in April, while only a slight increase was expected. Looking at the details, the present situation improved slightly (23.7 from 21.9), while the expectations sub-index showed a significant rise (49.5 from 30.2). Consumers became also less pessimistic about the labour market. Although a positive sign, consumer sentiment remains at very low levels as labour market conditions remain very fragile.

After the NY and Philly Fed, also the Richmond Fed surprised on the upside of expectations. The headline index rose from -20 to -9 in April, while the consensus was looking for an outcome of -17. The breakdown shows that both shipments (-3 from - 15) and new orders (-2 from -20) came close to positive territory. But the improvement was broad based, with also significant improvements in order backlog (-15 from -37), vendor lead time (-9 from -16) and average workweek (-7 from -30). Number of employees rose from -28 to -26. This outcome raises expectations that also the manufacturing ISM will show a significant improvement in April.

In February, S&P Case Shiller house prices came out close to expectations. On a yearly basis, house prices dropped by 18.63% Y/Y, while the consensus was looking for an outcome of -18.70% Y/Y. the previous figure was slightly downwardly revised from -18.97% Y/Y to -19.00% Y/Y. The three months annualized figure improved marginally from -26.56% to -26.28%, but still points to a further acceleration in the price declines.


EMU: German CPI slightly lower than expected

On a monthly basis, German CPI came out flat in April, while a slight increase was expected (0.1% M/M). The year-on-year figure rose from 0.4% Y/Y to 0.7% Y/Y, due to the 0.3% M/M decline in April last year, which fell out of the calculation. In the coming months however, CPI inflation is expected to continue its downward trend.


Other: CBI distributive trades show impressive rebound

In the UK, the CBI distributive trades report showed an unexpected improvement in April. Sales rebounded from -44 to 3 in April, the highest figure since January 2008. Also the volume of orders placed (-11 from -47) and sales for time of the year (-12 from -42) improved significantly. In May, sales are expected to fall back somewhat (-15) as the late timing of Easter may have influenced the figures.