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US: Michigan consumer confidence deteriorates further

Mon, Nov 16 2009, 08:38 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk

KBC Bank  |  View company's profile


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University of Michigan consumer confidence dropped for the second consecutive month in November. The headline index fell from 70.6 to 66.0, while a marginal improvement was forecasted. The breakdown shows deterioration in both the economic conditions (69.6 from 73.7) and economic outlook (63.7 from 68.6). The jobless rate which jumped above 10%, to a 26-year high, is weighing on consumer sentiment in the United States.

In September, the US trade balance showed a significant widening in the deficit, while the consensus was looking for only a slight increase. The trade deficit expanded from a revised $30.8B to $36.5B, while the consensus was looking for a deficit of $31.8B. Looking at the details, exports rose for the fifth consecutive month (by 2.9% M/M), while imports increased by 5.8% M/M. Excluding petroleum, the trade deficit rose from $14.3B to $15.9B, which indicates that the expanding deficit was only partially oil-related. This outcome suggests a slight downward revision in third quarter GDP.


EMU: euro zone economy climbs out of recession

In the third quarter, the euro zone economy climbed out of recession after five consecutive quarters of negative growth. According to the advance estimate, euro zone GDP expanded by 0.4% Q/Q, slightly below the consensus estimate of 0.5% Q/Q. National details showed that growth in Germany and France accelerated, while Spanish GDP stayed in negative territory for the sixth consecutive quarter. Next month, we will receive the breakdown, which will give us a more complete view.


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This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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