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US: Core retail sales up for the second straight month

Thu, Oct 15 2009, 07:30 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk

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In September, US retail sales dropped by 1.5% M/M, while a decline by 2.1% M/M was expected. The August reading was downwardly revised from 2.7% M/M to 2.2% M/M. Excluding autos and gas, retail sales rose by 0.4% M/M twice as much as the forecasted. The breakdown shows that the negative headline figure was due to a sharp decline in motor vehicles and parts (-10.4% M/M) attributable to the ending of the “Cash for Clunkers” program. Also miscellaneous (-1.9% M/M), building materials (-0.2% M/M) and non-store retailers (-0.1% M/M) showed negative contributions, while furniture (1.4% M/M), gasoline stations (1.1% M/M), general merchandise (0.9% M/M), health and personal care (0.8% M/M) and food and beverages (0.7% M/M) rose significantly in September. Even after the downward revision in the August figures, the recovery in US household spending in the third quarter remains intact and provides further evidence that consumption will offer a significant positive contribution to US third quarter GDP.

EMU: IP rises for the fourth consecutive month

In August, industrial production rose by 0.9% M/M in the euro zone, while the consensus was looking for an increase by 1.2% M/M. The previous two figures were however substantially upwardly revised from -0.3% M/M to 0.2% M/M (July) and from -0.2% M/M to 0.9% M/M (June). Looking at the details, the improvement was led by durable consumer goods (5.3% M/M), but also capital goods (1.1% M/M), intermediate goods (0.5% M/M) and energy (0.5% M/M) rose, while non-durable consumer goods fell by 1.3% M/M. This is the fourth consecutive increase in euro zone industrial production, providing further evidence that the euro zone economy is climbing out of recession.

Other: UK jobless claims surprise on the downside

In the UK, jobless claims rose by 20 800 in September, while the consensus was looking for an increase by 24 500. Also the previous figure was downwardly revised from 24 400 to 23 000. The ILO unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 7.9% in August, while a slight increase was forecasted. Although better than expected, the ILO unemployment rate is at the highest level since 1995 and is forecasted to increase further in the coming months.

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Published on  Thu, Oct 15 2009, 07:40 GMT

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