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EMU: ZEW economic outlook improves further

Wed, Jan 21 2009, 08:29 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk

KBC Bank  |  View company's profile


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The headline ZEW economic outlook index rose a stronger than expected 14 points in January to -31 from -45.2. It was the third consecutive monthly improvement since the index bottomed in October (at 63). The index remains clearly below the series average of 26.5. The ZEW said that the German stimulus package and the ECB rate cut might have behind the improvement. The less important current situation index is still falling; in January to -77.1 from -64.5 in December. The ZEW index has lost some of its importance for markets, as its correlation with the IFO business sentiment index broke down.


Other: UK inflation drops sharply in December

December CPI fell by 0.4% M/M, the largest monthly drop since April 1992, but nevertheless far above the consensus estimate for a decline by 0.9% M/M. On a yearly basis, inflation slowed to 3.1% from 4.1% previously. The uncertainty about the CPI was due to the temporary VAT cut to 15% from 17% headline figure and its passing to customers. Core CPI dropped to 1.1% Y/Y from 2% Y/Y previously, undercutting expectations for a more modest decline to 1.3% Y/Y.


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This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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