during in christmas holidays from dec 22 till jan 02 there will be no reports available, next full report as from jan 05, 2009
November industrial production dropped 0.6% M/M, less than the expected 0.8% M/M decline. The October figure was upwardly revised from 1.3% M/M to 1.5% M/M. The details remained very weak though as the cyclical manufacturing showed a 1.4% M/M drop, while utilities (1.6% M/M) and mining (2.5% M/M) were rising quite strongly. Looking at the manufacturing sector, durables show a 1.3% M/M decline and non-durables dropped 1.6% M/M. In the coming month, we expect to see further declines in industrial production as carmakers announced to shut down their plants during Christmas holidays.
The New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing survey showed a marginal worsening in December as the headline index dropped from -25.4 to -25.8, slightly better than the expected decline to -27. Looking at the details, new orders (-20.78 from - 22.21), shipments (-8.78 from -13.89) and number of employees (-23.4 from -28.92) improved while unfilled orders (-27.66 from -24.1) and average workweek (-26.6 from -25.3) improved. Interestingly, both prices paid (-7.45 from 20.48) and prices received (-11.70 from 6.02) fell below zero for the first time this cycle, suggesting prices are now declining in the early stages of production. Although business confidence is still deteriorating, the underlying picture stabilizes, which might indicate that some bottoming in sentiment, albeit at rock bottom lows, may be in the offering.
The NAHB housing market index stayed unchanged at the record low of 9 in December, while the consensus was hoping for a slight improvement. The current sales dropped from 9 to 8 and sales expectations fell to 16 (from 18). The NAHB said the deepening economic turmoil, deteriorating job market and ongoing flow of foreclosed homes continued to negatively impact sales conditions.
