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US: Consumer confidence extends rebound
Wed, Oct 1 2008, 07:43 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk
Consumer confidence extended its rebound in September coming out at 59.8 while the consensus was seeking for a modest decline. The August figure was upwardly revised from 56.9 to 58.5. Expectations improved (60.5 from 54.1) while the present situation deteriorated (58.8 from 65.0) and also labour market conditions worsened. It is however important to note that the cut-off date for the survey was September 23 which might indicate that this figure does not fully reflect the effects of the latest turmoil in financial markets.
The S&P Case Shiller house price index fell 16.3% Y/Y in July after falling 15.9% Y/Y in June, while the consensus was looking for a more modest decline of 16.0% Y/Y. The three-months annual figure improved further from -10.03% to -8.56% in June and is now clearly above the low (-24.9%) reached in March. Although the index is still falling, the month-on-month declines became smaller which indicates that some stabilization might be around the corner.
Chicago PMI surprised again on the upside coming out at 56.7 in September, while a figure of 53.0 was expected. Looking at the details, production (71.4 from 63.4) and employment (49.1 from 39.2) rose sharply, while new orders (53.9 from 60.2), order backlog (54.9 from 63.0) and inventories (37.7 from 52.2) dropped. Prices were broadly unchanged (80.7 from 80.6). Regional PMI surveys came out mixed in September, but manufacturing ISM, released today, might paint a more accurate picture. The Chicago PMI results go against most, if not all other data about the economy and thus should be approached cautiously.
EMU: Inflation slows for the second straight month
The euro zone CPI estimate came out in line with the expectations at 3.6% Y/Y in September, after 3.8% Y/Y in August. This is the second straight drop after inflation peaked at 4.0% Y/Y in July, which might soften the ECB stance on inflation and bring a rate cut closer. We are looking forward to the ECB press conference on Thursday to see whether the lower inflation rate and tensions on financial markets have an impact on their view.
In Germany, the number of people unemployed fell more than expected in September, declining 29 000 after 39 000 in August. Jobs created stayed unchanged at 39 000 in August and vacancies increased from 1 000 in August to 6 000 in September, which indicates that companies are still hiring new workers. The unemployment rate fell from an upwardly revised 7.7% in August to 7.6% in September. German economy has held up for long and this is reflected in a still strong labour market. The recent deterioration of the economy should be reflected in a weaker labour market in the next months.
Published on Wed, Oct 1 2008, 07:47 GMT
Archive
- US: manufacturing ISM shows deepening recession
Published On Tue, Dec 2 2008, 08:30 GMT - EMU: CPI inflation falls sharply in November
Published On Mon, Dec 1 2008, 08:15 GMT - EMU: Economic sentiment falls to 16-year low
Published On Fri, Nov 28 2008, 08:39 GMT - US: durables show that firms are slashing sales
Published On Thu, Nov 27 2008, 08:30 GMT - US: Third quarter GDP contracts by 0.5%
Published On Wed, Nov 26 2008, 08:48 GMT
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