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EMU: Italian wage growth accelerates

Tue, Sep 2 2008, 07:30 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk

KBC Bank


Italian wages surprised on the upside in July, rising by 0.7% M/M and 4.3% Y/Y, up from 0.3% M/M and 3.6% Y/Y previously and the highest since October 1997. Wages are already on the rise for some time. In July 2007, they increased by only 1.8% Y/Y. The rise was broadly based and includes both services and manufacturing. With Italian growth currently (Q2) flat, these wage figures do point to second round effects and will spook the ECB. Also other EMU countries reported rising wage growth.


Other: UK manufacturing contracted for the fourth consecutive month

In the UK, manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded in August, coming out at 45.9 against 44.3 in July. Most of the rebound was due to a sharp increase in output (48.7 from 43.2), but also new orders (42.7 from 40.6), new export orders (46.4 from 46.3) and employment (43.8 from 43.8) improved. Stocks of purchases, quantity of purchases, backlogs of work and finished goods stock deteriorated. Although the manufacturing PMI came out higher than expected, this is the fourth month in a row the report is showing a contraction and may confirm the announcements from Prime Minister Brown and Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling that the UK economy is heading for a recession.

UK mortgage approvals still moved slightly lower in July to 33 000 from a revised 35 000 previously, a new record low, and 71% lower on the year. This should weigh on prices in the next month. However, on a slightly more positive note, net lending on dwellings rose marginally to 3.2 B £ from 3.1 B £ in June, the first rise in seven months.


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