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US: ADP employment report beats all expectations
Thu, Jul 31 2008, 07:44 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk
The ADP employment report showed US employment increasing by 9 000 in July, while a fall of 60 000 was expected. The employment gain was driven by an improvement in the service providing sector (74 000) and small-size businesses, while manufacturing (-49 000) and goods-producing sector (-65 000) showed a decline. Residential construction, one of the hit hardest by the recent problems, showed a more modest drop (16 000), though it was the twentieth consecutive monthly decline. The other sector hit hard, employment in financial activities, rose 4 000 during July. Assuming that government payrolls rise about 15 000 in July, the payrolls for July would report a rise of 24 000, while the consensus estimate is at -75 000. But in the recent months (exception made for the last month) the correlation between the ADP and the payrolls report has loosened considerably and it is unlikely that the payrolls show a rise of 24 000.
EMU: Economic confidence at lowest level since 2003
The EU economic confidence index dropped to 89.5 in July, after a revised 94.8 in June, reaching its lowest level since March 2003. Looking at the details, all subindices were lower. Consumer confidence extended its fall coming out at -20 after - 18 in June. Industrial confidence declined from -5 to -8, while services confidence fell sharply (1 from 9) after a slight increase in June. Overall, labour market conditions deteriorated, but also orders en exports came out lower. Prices were again higher, but rising at a slower pace. These very weak data, with employment showing signs of deterioration, raise concerns that growth will come out even lower than expected and a serious downturn is around the corner. The EU business climate indicator came out 0.34 lower at -0.21.
Belgium CPI accelerated in July, coming out at 5.91%Y/Y after 5.80% Y/Y in June, the highest level since July 1984. Together with German CPI results, it indicates that euro zone CPI may be again 4.0% Y/Y in July with risks for a 4.1% Y/Y increase.
Published on Thu, Jul 31 2008, 10:27 GMT
Archive
- US: manufacturing ISM shows deepening recession
Published On Tue, Dec 2 2008, 08:30 GMT - EMU: CPI inflation falls sharply in November
Published On Mon, Dec 1 2008, 08:15 GMT - EMU: Economic sentiment falls to 16-year low
Published On Fri, Nov 28 2008, 08:39 GMT - US: durables show that firms are slashing sales
Published On Thu, Nov 27 2008, 08:30 GMT - US: Third quarter GDP contracts by 0.5%
Published On Wed, Nov 26 2008, 08:48 GMT
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