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US: Consumer confidence declines further

Wed, Apr 30 2008, 08:17 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk

KBC Bank


next report will be published on monday may 05, 2008

US consumer confidence as measured by the conference board dropped to 62.3 in April from an (upward revised) 65.9 in March. The present situation index again showed a steep decline from 90.6 to 80.7. The expectations index improved slightly from 49.4 to 50.1. Lacklustre business and job conditions but also rising gasoline prices cause consumers to make a more negative assessment on the economy.


EMU: Spanish and Belgian CPI confirm lower German inflation data

Following the downward surprise in the German inflation data, the Spanish and Belgian CPI declined too in April. In Spain, the headline inflation rate fell from 4.6% Y/Y in March to 4.2% in April and in Belgium from 4.39% to 4.15%. All together, these inflation data suggest that today’s flash CPI may come out at 3.3% or even 3.2% from 3.6% last month.


Other: UK CBI distributive trades report collapses

In the UK, the CBI distributive trades report showed that a balance of 26% of the retailers said that volumes were down compared to a year ago, the weakest since November 2005 and compared to an expected 3%. Also next month sales are expected to fall. The CBI attributed part of the weakness due to the timing of Easter, which fell in April last year, and to the wet weather compared to last year. Looking at the sector in detail, household goods reported the weakest sales balance, which suggests that the downturn in the housing market is having an effect on consumer spending. In this context, the fall in the mortgage approvals to a record low at 64K and the slowing in net lending secured on dwellings in March does not bode well for the outlook for consumer spending and for the UK economy in general.

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This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

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