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US: CNAI points to US economy entering recession
Wed, Jan 23 2008, 08:31 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk
The Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator plummet to -0.91 in December from - 0.29 in November, while the more important 3-month moving average fell to -0.67 versus -0.50 in November. According to the methodology of the indicator, the probability the economy has entered a recession is around 70%, based on the December figures. All four broad categories, employment, production, consumption & housing and sales, orders and inventories, all contributed to the fall in December.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -8 in January from -4 in December, the weakest reading since May 2007, the fourth consecutive negative reading and as it is below the 0 threshold, it indicates a contraction in activity. The shipments index fell even to -17 from -10 previously, effectively the lowest value since April 2003. Most other sub-indices were in negative territory too, even if some of them improved a bit from December. Together with the Philly Fed survey, the report suggests that the ISM survey, to be released on February 1 will remain around the current sub-50 levels (47.7 in December).
Published on Wed, Jan 23 2008, 08:34 GMT
Archive
- US: Pending home sales unexpectedly rebound
Published On Thu, Oct 9 2008, 08:59 GMT - EMU: German factory orders rebound in August
Published On Wed, Oct 8 2008, 07:57 GMT - US: Payrolls confirm recession fears
Published On Mon, Oct 6 2008, 07:54 GMT - US: Another very weak claims report
Published On Fri, Oct 3 2008, 08:02 GMT - US: Manufacturing PMI drops to lowest level since 2001
Published On Thu, Oct 2 2008, 08:15 GMT
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