Initial claims fell 11 000 to 330 000 in the most recent week, still a rather elevated level that suggests that the trend is drifting higher. Next week’s claims will have to cope with the seasonal adjustment problems surrounding Thanksgiving holiday. Continuing claims reported with a one week lag rose marginally to 2 566 000.
Consumer sentiment edged slightly up during November, according to the Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Indeed, the headline index rose to 76.1 from a preliminary reading of 75, still the lowest in about two years though and down from 80.9 in October. The story remained unchanged though with rising energy prices and the housing slump affecting consumer’s mood and spending behaviour. Both the current conditions and the expectations sub-indices contributed to the slightly improvement throughout November, but both are still sharply below their October value (just the headline index).
The leading indicators dropped a steeper-than-expected 0.5% M/M in October, while the September reading was revised down to 0.1% M/M from 0.3% M/M previously. The report suggests, in line with other data, ongoing weakness in the US economy in the next two quarters. The 6-month change is also below the yearly change. The ratio of the coincident-to-the-lagging index, by itself a leading indicator, continued to fall.
