• Kick-off. Today is Black Friday, which traditionally marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season in the US. This is when many retailers go from being “in the red” to “in the black” for the first time in the year, since they generate up to one quarter of their annual sales in the final weeks.

  • Disappointment. But ringing cash registers or even a bumper holiday season are not in the cards this year either. The National Retail Federation expects sales to decline for the second year in a row. Rising unemployment, high job insecurity, falling incomes and an oppressive debt burden should curb US consumers’ holiday shopping spirit.

  • Strain. On top of that, this year’s holiday season will also become a drag on the labor market at the end of the year. Instead of the usual 550,000 holiday hires, only just over half this number will be hired this year. That is at least suggested by the close correlation with sales expectations (cf. chart below). As a result, seasonally-adjusted employment will post strong declines in the final two months of this year (pages 2-5).

  • Hope. Since, however, considerably fewer holiday hires will have to be laid off again than the seasonal factors "expect", there will be a countermovement early next year. The nonfarm payrolls could then increase for the first time in two years – also the census will generate an additional, albeit only temporary, impulse.

  • Further topics:

    – Italy: Top position in the EMU growth league not sustainable (page 6).

    – Crude oil in short supply again as early as next summer (page 9).

    – Data outlook: ECB press conference to move center stage; US purchasing managers to become more cautious (page 12).

    – Market outlook: Bonds supported; EUR to strengthen again (p. 20).