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Forex Currency Outlook
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Greenback set to firm up?
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 16:24 GMT
by Economic and Strategy Team
- After some 20 months of downturn, there is at last a light on the horizon for the United States and confirmation that economic recovery is under way. With the end of the financial crisis near, we believe the financial markets will soon cease to trade the USD as a function of risk aversion or appetite and get back to basics, focusing on the cyclical backdrop to the U.S. economy.
- The keystone of our currency scenario is an imminent return to job creation in the United States, which will force the financial markets to price in key-rate hikes by the Fed. Despite the colossal budget deficit, these cyclical forces should be enough to give the USD a second breath, at least over the short term.
- The Canadian dollar’s recent appreciation seems to be slightly exaggerated as it is out of line with the price of certain key commodities exported by Canada. The portion in excess of fundamental factors is attributable to capital inflows from abroad driven by the loonie’s popularity at the international level.
- The expected upward movement in the USD should drive the loonie down slightly, as the 2-year yield spread between Canada and the United States reverses for the first time since 2007. We expect the loonie to dip back just below the US$0.90 mark over the next two quarters.
Published on Mon, Aug 31 2009, 16:29 GMT
Archive
- Job gains in offing: greenback's reversal as well?
Published On Thu, Nov 5 2009, 10:39 GMT - USD awaiting signal from Fed
Published On Mon, Oct 5 2009, 14:49 GMT - Greenback set to firm up?
Published On Mon, Aug 31 2009, 16:24 GMT - The recovery has yet to be fully factored in by the consensus of analysts
Published On Wed, Aug 12 2009, 16:48 GMT - Loonie Climbs off it's cloud
Published On Mon, Jul 13 2009, 09:20 GMT
National Bank of Canada
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This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements about the 2009 Economic and Financial Outlook. Such statements are subject to risk and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors, including legislative or regulatory developments, competition, technological change and economic conditions in Canada, North America or internationally. These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers should not rely unduly on National Bank of Canada’s forward-looking statements. This presentation may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of National Bank.Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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