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Forex Currency Outlook
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Loonie Climbs off it's cloud
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 09:20 GMT
by Economic and Strategy Team
- The last thing the euro zone needs is an appreciating currency. As a result of the reversal of the safe-haven effect on the greenback begun a few months back, the euro remains over-valued in trade-weighted terms.
- In addition to Ireland having its credit rating downgraded recently by Standard & Poor’s, the ECB’s firepower is petering out again: Money-supply growth in Europe has just reached a 12-year low.
- Given that the U.S. leading economic indicator is back in positive territory for the first time in 22 months and some forecasters expect real GDP to begin growing again in the third quarter, the chances of seeing a repeat of the 2004 scenario are good. Accordingly, the dollar should begin to realign with the euro when the Fed starts hiking rates again.
- May’s bionic loonie has finally dipped a couple of notches to more reasonable levels. The recent cooldown in commodity prices should keep the Canadian dollar in check over the coming months. On the assumption that oil prices will hover around US$60 a barrel, the loonie should hold closer to $0.85 than to $0.90 in the months ahead.
- Canadian exporters can therefore heave a sigh of relief and should seize the opportunity to do some currency hedging for their international transactions before the eventual global recovery sets the loonie on a sustainable uptrend.
Published on Mon, Jul 13 2009, 09:24 GMT
Archive
- Job gains in offing: greenback's reversal as well?
Published On Thu, Nov 5 2009, 10:39 GMT - USD awaiting signal from Fed
Published On Mon, Oct 5 2009, 14:49 GMT - Greenback set to firm up?
Published On Mon, Aug 31 2009, 16:24 GMT - The recovery has yet to be fully factored in by the consensus of analysts
Published On Wed, Aug 12 2009, 16:48 GMT - Loonie Climbs off it's cloud
Published On Mon, Jul 13 2009, 09:20 GMT
National Bank of Canada
| 1100 University, 11th floor Montreal (Québec) H3B 2G7
http://www.nbc.ca/ | info@nbc.ca
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements about the 2009 Economic and Financial Outlook. Such statements are subject to risk and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors, including legislative or regulatory developments, competition, technological change and economic conditions in Canada, North America or internationally. These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers should not rely unduly on National Bank of Canada’s forward-looking statements. This presentation may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of National Bank.Related reports
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