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Forex Currency Outlook

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ECB presses interest rate button

Wed, Jul 9 2008, 15:58 GMT
by Economic and Strategy Team

National Bank of Canada


• The latest move by the ECB has lifted the real key rate in Europe to +25 basis points against -200 in the United States. However, we do not believe that the European monetary authority will need to tweak the real rate any higher. The ECB has drifted a good distance away from real indicators and may be seriously jeopardizing growth in the process.

• The current EUR/USD exchange rate has factored in an overly aggressive increase in European interest rates, which should work against the euro in the short term.

• The current world economic slowdown, together with a probable decline in world oil prices, is likely to bring about a major reversal in long and short positions in the CAD market.

• The loonie could thus break out of the narrow bracket it has been confined to since the beginning of the year and trade at a lower range between 93 and 98 cents U.S.


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