http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-11-06.htmlOECD’s leading indicators for September were released today (OECD publication). The data continue to point to very strong growth in coming quarters, but also give the first early signals that momentum may fade a bit around Q1/Q2 2010. This is broadly in line with our expectations for global growth. We expect very strong growth in Q4 2009 and Q1 2010, but a soft patch setting in around Q2/Q3 2010. For now the leading indicators continue to support risky assets, but we may soon be  readingFri, 06 Nov 2009 13:23:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-11-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-11-03.htmlIt is time for a correction in the EMEA FX markets – at least if one believes the signals from our EMEA FX Scorecard. Over the last 24 hours our Scorecard has turned negative for most of the EMEA currencies and the total score is now negative for the first time since March-April. This is an indication that we are in for a correction in the EMEA FX markets and we therefore recommend taking off some risk from the books and reducing exposure to the EMEA FX markets. Most at risk according to theTue, 03 Nov 2009 13:17:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-11-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-11-02.v02.htmlPMI data for October, released across the EMEA region this morning, were a mixed bag. In Poland and the Czech Republic PMIs inched higher in line with the general trend in the Euro Zone area. An upward trend was also visible in South Africa, but only due to a significant downward revision of September numbers.  Hungarian, Turkish and especially Russian PMIs declined. For Hungary and Turkey this was not overly surprising given the relative strength in PMI data over theMon, 02 Nov 2009 17:22:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-11-02.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-11-02.htmlBoth of China’s manufacturing PMIs improved further in October, suggesting that the Chinese recovery remains strong and might even be gaining further strength following a slowdown during Q3. This suggests GDP growth of around 12% q/q AR in Q4. So far there are no signs that the export recovery is losing steam. It increasingly looks as if stronger exports will offset the negative impact from lower public investments, when the impact from the fiscal stimulus starts to wane. Bottom line Both ofMon, 02 Nov 2009 13:04:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-30.htmlBank of Japan (BoJ) at today’s monetary meeting announced plans to scrap most of its non-conventional easing measures. In addition, BoJ published new macroeconomic forecasts. BoJ’s view of the economy remains benign and it expects deflation to prevail well into 2011. The termination of most of BoJ’s non-conventional easing measures should have little market impact, as their size is modest not least compared to ECB and Fed. Hence, unwinding the unconventional measures should be considerableFri, 30 Oct 2009 11:38:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-28.htmlThe Euroland bank lending survey shows that banks continued to tighten credit standards to both enterprises and households in the third quarter, but not by much. The situation has improved particularly strongly for lending to enterprises.  The outlook for Q4 is even better. Banks expect a slight net easing of credit standards for enterprises indicating that a turn in the tightening cycle is imminent.  The most important driving forces for the net tightening areWed, 28 Oct 2009 14:16:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-23.htmlToday we saw a batch of interesting data from Euroland – namely Flash PMIs, German Ifo and industrial new orders. The data were generally strong both on headline and detail and confirm that the recovery is on track with France pulling ahead. The PMI new orders index is currently indicating GDP growth at just below 2% q/q annualised. This is very much in line with our expectation of growth at 1.9% q/q annualised in Q3. Given the strong industrial orders data (2% m/m in August) we would not beFri, 23 Oct 2009 14:31:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-20.htmlBrazil imposes a 2% tax on foreign capital inflows toward equities and fixed-income investments. The tax will not apply to foreign direct investment, but only to “hot money” flows. Brazil’s finance minister Guido Mantega said last night that the levy will be effective as of today. We expect a negative sentiment when Brazilian markets open later today. The new tax aims to reduce the current pace of appreciation of the Brazilian real rather than to improve public revenues . In recent months theTue, 20 Oct 2009 10:32:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-14.v03.htmlAlthough September retail sales declined on the headline, the details in the report provided good news on the underlying strength in consumption. The data suggest that personal spending has been tracking slightly above 3% in Q3. In Q4 consumption growth will take a hit due to the negative backdrop from the clunkers programme. The outlook for consumption hinges on the strength of the labour market and its ability to support real income growth. We continue to expect a moderate spendingWed, 14 Oct 2009 20:01:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-14.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-14.v02.htmlChina’s exports continue to recover and imports are roaring ahead. So far there is little evidence of slower growth in China’s foreign trade data. Credit growth remained healthy in September but has nonetheless slowed substantially compared to H1 2009. However, strong import volumes for steel and iron ore suggest the activity impact from investment demand is still considerable. Imports roar ahead, exports remain on recovery path Both Chinese exports and imports soared inWed, 14 Oct 2009 19:57:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-14.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-14.htmlPolish inflation inched down to 3.4% y/y in September from 3.7% in August – a bit below the consensus expectation and our expectation of 3.5% y/y. As in Hungary, the downside surprise can mostly be explained by a lower than expected rise in food prices.  Looking forward, we continue to think that Polish inflation will rise a bit in the coming month due to a minor base effect, but inflation is now unlikely to top 4%, and should come down quite a bit during 2010 to hit aWed, 14 Oct 2009 19:31:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-13.htmlLast night, it was announced that the leader of the Latvian People’s Party, Mareks Seglins, is to resign. The People’s Party is the largest party in the Latvian coalition government. Former prime minister, Andris Skele, who has not been officially active in Latvian politics for some time, will take over as the new official leader of the party. Mr Skele yesterday said he would be ready to become prime minister again. It should be noted that Mr Skele has previously voiced support for a LatvianTue, 13 Oct 2009 07:28:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-09.htmlInflation for September fell to 0.0% y/y, representing a further drop from 0.2% y/y in August. We look for lower rates and yields as this keeps the door open for more rate cuts and it is now possible that the Czech central bank might introduce other measures to loosen monetary policy such as quantitative easing. The Czech Statistical Office has this morning published inflation figures for September. Inflation dropped to 0.0% y/y. This is in line with our forecast and the consensus forecast,Fri, 09 Oct 2009 10:16:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-08.v02.htmlECB kept policy rates on hold as expected and Trichet noted that the judgment today is very close to the judgment a month ago. Nevertheless, Trichet mentioned several upside risks and it appears that the ECB’s assessment of the economic situation is slowly becoming more positive. Trichet said that he tends to see the modest demand at the 12-month auction in September as a sign that we are progressing towards a more normal market functioning, but drew no firm conclusion. ItThu, 08 Oct 2009 16:07:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-08.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-08.htmlAs expected Lithuanian inflation picked up in September to 2.7%, from 2.6% y/y in August. This was due to higher VAT and excise duties on tobacco products. While inflation in Latvia continues to decelerate: CPI decelerated to 0.5% y/y in September down from 1.8% y/y in August.. Details Lithuania and Latvia Statistics have today published CPI inflation numbers for September. The hike in VAT and excise duties picked up Lithuanian CPI to 2.7% y/y in September. In Latvia CPI deceleratedThu, 08 Oct 2009 13:16:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-07.htmlEstonian consumer prices dropped further to -1.6% y/y in September, down from -0.9% y/y in August. The outcome was slightly lower than the consensus expectation and our forecast of -1.4% y/y. Details Statistics Estonia has today published inflation numbers for September. As was broadly expected, CPI dropped to -1.6% y/y. It seems obvious to us that the downward price pressures will prevail this year as domestic demand is expected to slow down further. Assessment & Outlook Consumer pricesWed, 07 Oct 2009 08:51:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-09-30.htmlStatistics Denmark has just released the Q2 GDP data. We had expected a contraction in economic activity of 1.7% on Q1 09 (-5.3% on the same quarter of last year), but the data showed a significantly steeper decline in GDP of 2.6% from Q1 09 to Q2 09. GDP has thus dropped by 7.2% over the past year. This is a historically severe contraction. Not least a steep decline in business investments was a drag on GDP in Q2 09, with gross fixed investments down by 10.3% from Q1 to Q2. Plus, exportsWed, 30 Sep 2009 12:54:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-09-22.htmlSouth African inflation dropped to 6.4% y/y in August, down from July’s 6.7% y/y, which was in line with the consensus expectation but slightly lower than our forecast of 6.5% y/y. Details Statistics South Africa published inflation numbers for August today. Inflation dropped to 6.4% y/y, in line with the consensus expectation. Despite the fact that inflation has moderated in recent months, it remains above the South African central bank’s (SARB) inflation target range of 3%-6%. AssessmentTue, 22 Sep 2009 15:18:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-09-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-09-16.htmlToday the Turkish Economy Minister Ali Babacan presented the Turkish government’s Medium Term Economic Programme (MTEP). Our overall assessment is that the MTEP is ambitious, but also essentially realistic. Most positive is the announcement that the Turkish government will introduce a fiscal rule to secure long-term fiscal sustainability. The legal framework for the fiscal rule will be announced in Q1 10. The Turkish government forecasts a drop in GDP of 6% this year , but forecasts GDP growthWed, 16 Sep 2009 13:22:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-09-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-31.htmlThe Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) as expected won a landslide victory in connection with yesterday’s Lower House election. DPJ won a solid majority in the Lower House, but fell short of a “supermajority” allowing it to overrule an Upper House Majority. Hence, DPJ will still be dependent on the support of a couple of smaller coalition partners in the Upper House. Most importantly, the election had a clear-cut outcome and there is little danger Japan will end up in a political paralysis likeMon, 31 Aug 2009 10:00:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-26.v02.htmlThe Polish central bank (NBP) decided to keep its key rate unchanged at 3.50% at today’s monetary policy setting meeting, which was in line with our and consensus expectation. There will be news briefing at 16:00 (CEST), explaining why the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided to keep interest rates on hold. The decision to keep rates flat was expected by most market participants. However, the NBP governor Slawomir Skrzypek reiterated recently that the Polish central bank was still on anWed, 26 Aug 2009 13:21:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-26.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-26.htmlSouth African inflation dropped to 6.7% y/y in July, down from June’s 6.9% y/y, slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 6.6% y/y and our forecast of 6.2% y/y Details Statistics South Africa published inflation numbers for July today. July’s inflation dropped to 6.7% y/y – slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 6.6% y/y and our forecast of 6.2% y/y. The main culprit was higher prices in housing and utilities, which in turn were the result of higher prices for electricity,Wed, 26 Aug 2009 12:13:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-25.htmlThe Danish Central Bank is expected to be preparing for another independent 10bp rate cut, narrowing the policy rate spread to Euroland to 35bp. Contrary to what one might have anticipated, EUR/DKK has drifted slightly lower after the latest Danish rate cut on 13 August and DKK continues to be supported by a high market spread. Timing is as always tricky as the Danish CB is very brief in its communication, but we expect the rate cut this Thursday or one of the following Thursdays (prior to theTue, 25 Aug 2009 15:23:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-24.htmlThe Hungarian central bank (MNB) has decided to cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 8% at today’s monetary policy meeting. This came out completely in line with both our and consensus expectations. We believe that today’s 50bp rate cut, which was less aggressive compared with the 100bp cut delivered at July’s monetary policy setting meeting, has to be seen in light of the less stable Hungarian forint (HUF) recently, which prevented the MNB from cutting more aggressively. The HungarianMon, 24 Aug 2009 13:30:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-18.htmlAnnualized Q2 GDP figures published today by the Statistical Office in South Africa contracted at a slower rate than in Q1. Details The South African economy contracted by 3.0% q/q (seasonally adjusted, annualised – s.a.a) in the second quarter compared to 6.4% q/q registered in Q1. The outcome in the second quarter was in line with the consensus expectation; we had expected a somewhat larger contraction. On an annual basis the South African economy contracted 2.8% y/y, which was in line withTue, 18 Aug 2009 12:37:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-13.v02.htmlPolish inflation increased to 3.6% y/y in July, up from 3.5% y/y in June – above the consensus expectation of 3.4% and our expectation of 3.5% y/y. This does not however change the outlook for monetary policy in our view; we still expect the Polish central bank to keep interest rates on hold for the rest of the year with a chance of a rate cut in Q1 2010. Polish inflation rose to 3.6% y/y in July up from 3.5% y/y in June – above the consensus expectation of 3.4% and our expectation of 3.5%Thu, 13 Aug 2009 14:55:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-13.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-13.htmlHungarian GDP fell 7.6% y/y in Q2 down from a drop of 6.7%, somewhat more than the consensus expectation of -7.1% y/y, but slightly better than our forecast of -8.0% y/y. Overall today’s GDP numbers are a disappointment and even though we see some stabilisation in the Hungarian economy we only expect a relatively fragile recovery. We now expect GDP to fall 6-7% y/y on average in 2009. The weaker-than-expected GDP numbers keep the door wide open for further monetary easing in Hungary. ThisThu, 13 Aug 2009 14:31:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-12.htmlThe Estonian Statistical Office has this morning published its flash estimate for Q2 09 GDP data. GDP decreased by 16.6% y/y, down from -15.1% y/y in Q1 09. The number was significantly better than we and consensus had expected. It looks as if the economic decline has reached the bottom. We expect to see a slightly positive development in the second half of the year. However, the base effect will play a key role. We expect GDP this year to shrink by 13-15% for the whole year. DetailsWed, 12 Aug 2009 09:04:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-11.htmlData on July’s inflation in Hungary and Romania were released this morning. Hungarian inflation rose to 5.1% y/y in July from 3.7% y/y in June, but this merely reflects the increase in VAT in July. Romanian inflation dropped to 5.1% y/y in July compared to 5.9% y/y in June. Today’s releases did not present any surprises and do not affect our expectations for the remainder of 2009. Our view on the monetary policy in Hungary and Romania is thus also unchanged and we continue to expect theTue, 11 Aug 2009 13:11:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-10.v04.htmlThe downward trend in the Baltic states price level continues: Lithuanian consumer prices decelerated to 3.0% y/y in July, down from 4.2% y/y in June. The same trend was observed in Latvia: CPI decelerated to 2.5% y/y in July, down from 3.4% y/y in June. Details Lithuania and Latvia Statistics have today published CPI inflation numbers for July. Inflation of 3.0% y/y in Lithuania was only moderately lower than our forecast and the consensus expectation. In Latvia, however, 2.5% y/y was a bitMon, 10 Aug 2009 12:37:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-10.v04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-10.v03.htmlThe Latvian Statistical Office this morning published its flash estimate of Q209 GDP data. GDP dropped 19.6% y/y down from -18.0% y/y in Q1 09. The number was better than we and consensus had expected. The development of the Latvian economy in the first half of 2009 has been slightly above our base scenario. However, the risk of a deep recession with a fall in GDP of up to 20% y/y on average this year still is high. Details The Latvian statistical office released its flash estimate on GDPMon, 10 Aug 2009 12:19:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-10.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-10.v02.htmlTurkish industrial production in June showed a strong performance. Although yearon- year growth is still deeply in the red at minus 9.7%, the monthly increase in June was significant at 7.3% m/m. Overall industrial activity has risen 30% from the latest low seen in February 2009, and is now back at the level seen in November last year. Thus, activity data back up the recent quite sharp rise in Turkish PMIs, which might suggest that the Turkish economy is not only stabilising, but is actuallyMon, 10 Aug 2009 12:16:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-10.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-10.htmlInflation for July stood at 0.3% y/y – a significant drop from 1.2% y/y in June. We look for lower rates and yields as this still keeps the door open for more rate cuts from the Czech central bank. Unemployment for July was 8.4%, up from 8.0% in June. The Czech Statistical Office has this morning published inflation for July. Inflation of 0.3% y/y surprised significantly on the downside and was much lower than our forecast of 0.7% y/y and the consensus expectation of 0.6% y/y. The CzechMon, 10 Aug 2009 10:07:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-08-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-28.v02.htmlAll five coalition parties in the Latvian government have now signed a deal to agree with the IMF on the conditions for the payout of the next instalment on Latvia’s IMF deal. This secures some calm for now, but we are worried about possible fiscal concerns later this year. There are clear indications that the support for the IMF deal from the coalition government is fragile so we advise investors to keep a close eye on political developments in Latvia as the sustainability of any deal withTue, 28 Jul 2009 12:23:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-28.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-28.htmlThe Lithuanian Statistical Office has published its flash estimate of Q2 09 GDP data. GDP dropped by 22.4% y/y, down from -13.6% y/y in Q1 09. This number is much worse than both we and consensus had expected. The development of the Lithuania economy in the first half of 2009 has so far been below our base scenario. Thus, there is a high probability that the economy could contract by up to 20% y/y overall in 2009. Overall, despite the first positive signs of a halt to the recession in globalTue, 28 Jul 2009 12:20:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-27.v02.htmlThe Hungarian central bank (MNB) decided to cut its key rate by 100bp to 8.50% at today’s monetary policy meeting. We had expected a 50bp cut - this was also the consensus expectation. We believe the positive sentiment in CEE financial markets contributed to the largerthan- expected rate cut. We expect more rate cuts to be delivered over the next three to six months – especially if HUF remains stable. The market pricing suggests roughly 80bp worth of cuts to be delivered over the next sixMon, 27 Jul 2009 14:39:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-27.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-27.htmlThe Latvian People’s Party – the biggest party in the ruling coalition – is refusing to sign a deal that would ensure support from the IMF. The failure of Prime Minister Dombrovskis (from the New Era Party) to secure the People’s Party’s backing is a serious blow and might very well be the trigger for the IMF to finally say “no” to Latvia. We do not rule out that Dombrovskis might be able to convince the People’s Party to support the IMF deal, but we would not be surprised if the IMF isMon, 27 Jul 2009 14:36:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-22.htmlThe European Commission published a Supplemental Memorandum of Understanding between the Latvian government and the EU. The MoU shows that half of the instalment of the EU loan to Latvia is earmarked for the financial sector. This leaves less money to cover the gap in the central government budget. Therefore, the Latvian government might not be able to meet its funding needs for the rest of the year unless the country gets the next instalment of its IMF loan. Yesterday the European CommissionWed, 22 Jul 2009 06:36:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-21.htmlLast night it was announced that the governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), Tito Mboweni, will step down in November. The South African government has appointed Gill Marcus as his replacement. Ms Marcus will become the first-ever female SARB governor. Ms Marcus is clearly part of the economic establishment in South Africa. She is a former ANC activist, but also a skilled policymaker – first as chairperson of the South African parliament’s Finance Committee and later as deputyTue, 21 Jul 2009 06:40:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-16.v03.htmlWage growth slowed to 2.0% y/y in June down from 3.8% y/y in May. Employment dropped by 1.9% y/y in June. The weak labour market data potentially opens the door for further monetary easing in the coming months. Real wage growth has now turned decisively negative and this is likely to put weight on private consumption in Poland in the coming quarters. The situation keeps deteriorating on the Polish labour markets. In June employment dropped by 1.9% y/y – down from -1.7% y/y in May. This was inThu, 16 Jul 2009 14:53:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/flash-comment/2009-07-16.v03.html