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EMEA: October PMI slightly disappointing
Mon, Nov 2 2009, 17:22 GMT
by Lars Rasmussen
- PMI data for October, released across the EMEA region this morning, were a mixed bag. In Poland and the Czech Republic PMIs inched higher in line with the general trend in the Euro Zone area. An upward trend was also visible in South Africa, but only due to a significant downward revision of September numbers.
- Hungarian, Turkish and especially Russian PMIs declined. For Hungary and Turkey this was not overly surprising given the relative strength in PMI data over the region in last couple of months. However we are a little puzzled by the weak Russian PMI data – especially in the light of the high oil prices and the latest decline in unemployment.
While the recovery in Asia and Brazil seems to be underway, we note that Russian PMI declined quite sharply during October - signalling that Russia is (still) the weak link among the BRIC economies. Headline manufacturing PMI thus declined to 49.6 from 52.0 in September and all sub-indices fell too. Hence the Russian October manufacturing PMI print rules out a V-type industrial recovery there. We are little disappointed about the PMI data with oil prices hovering around USD 80/barrel. That said, the PMI data show that manufacturing growth in Russia (gradually) continues.
Overall we see the gradual industrial recovery being the baseline scenario for EMEA going into 2010, but the outlook is still rather fragile and the fun could easily be spoiled.
Published on Mon, Nov 2 2009, 17:28 GMT
Archive
- China: Appreciation pressure intensifies
Published On Thu, Nov 12 2009, 16:39 GMT - Baltics: on a deflationary trend
Published On Mon, Nov 9 2009, 13:42 GMT - OECD leading indicators still point to very strong growth
Published On Fri, Nov 6 2009, 13:23 GMT - EMEA markets: Correction time
Published On Tue, Nov 3 2009, 13:17 GMT - EMEA: October PMI slightly disappointing
Published On Mon, Nov 2 2009, 17:22 GMT
Danske Bank
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This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
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