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Flash Comment
Poland: Inflation inches down a bit
Wed, Oct 14 2009, 19:31 GMT
by Lars Christensen
Danske Bank A/S | View company's profile
Polish inflation inched down to 3.4% y/y in September from 3.7% in August – a bit below the consensus expectation and our expectation of 3.5% y/y. As in Hungary, the downside surprise can mostly be explained by a lower than expected rise in food prices.
Looking forward, we continue to think that Polish inflation will rise a bit in the coming month due to a minor base effect, but inflation is now unlikely to top 4%, and should come down quite a bit during 2010 to hit a low point of 2.2% in July. We now see inflation at 3.5% y/y in 2009 and 2.7% y/y in 2010.
Today’s inflation numbers should not change the outlook for monetary policy much. We expect the Polish central bank (NBP) to maintain its wait-and-see stance in monetary policy, and although the NBP still officially maintains an easing bias, there is no reason to believe that it will cut its key policy rate any more in this cycle.
Although Polish inflation surprised on the downside in September, and we expect it to inch down in the coming year, we are still somewhat surprised at the upward stickiness of inflation during the present downturn, given the sharp moderation of wage growth.
Published on Wed, Oct 14 2009, 19:33 GMT
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This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
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