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Flash Comment
FOMC: moving closer to an inflation target
Thu, Feb 19 2009, 10:30 GMT
by Peter Possing Andersen, Signe Roed-Frederiksen
Danske Bank A/S | View company's profile
Overview: The most interesting part of Bernanke's speech and the FOMC minutes for the January 27-28 meeting was the information that the committee will release longer-run forecasts for PCE inflation, GDP growth and unemployment in addition to its projections for the next three years. Longer-run estimates for PCE inflation can be regarded as the Fed's implicit inflation target with the minutes stating that "most participants judged that 2% would be consistent with the dual mandate". Addressing the possibility of the Fed buying up longer-dated treasury securities, Bernanke did not mention this as an option in his speech. Nor do FOMC minutes suggest such purchases are imminent.
Details: Committee members extended their forecast horizon to include a long-term (5- to 6-year) period probably because they recognized that longer-range objectives would not be reached over the next three years, even assuming "appropriate monetary policy". Most members thought the appropriate longer-term inflation rate to be between 1.7% and 2% while "most participants judged that 2% would be consistent with the dual mandate". The central tendency of the longer-run projection on GDP growth was relatively downbeat at 2.5-2.7% compared with a 4.8-5.0% range in the case of unemployment.
Published on Thu, Feb 19 2009, 10:33 GMT
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This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
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