Danske Bank regularly surveys Danish opinion on adopting the euro. For a long time, our polls have suggested that any future vote on Denmark.s participation in EMU would be a very close race. During the autumn, however, we have seen a swing towards the Yes side . since October, the Yes camp has thus had a fairly strong lead. This lead has narrowed slightly in December to 6.1% versus 8.3% in November, though.

Our December poll showed that 43.8% of Danes asked would definitely vote Yes to Danish EMU participation, while 38.0% would be certain No voters. Add to this that 7.8% are undecided but lean towards a Yes, while 7.5% of those polled indicate that they might vote No, and we have a relatively strong 6.1% point lead to the Yes camp.

The swing towards the Yes side coincides with the strong escalation of the financial crisis in the autumn. In October, turmoil in the financial markets, among other things, prompted the central bank to gradually increase the yield spread to Euroland. This was at a time when the Danish economy was heading for a serious deceleration and the housing market came to a standstill. The swing towards the Yes side should therefore be viewed against a backdrop of the consequences of the Danish go-it-alone approach to EMU becoming very evident and tangible during the autumn.

The policy statement presented by the government when it took office paved the way for putting Denmark.s EU opt-outs to a referendum within the term of the current parliament . ie, by autumn 2011. However, the policy statement says noting about the timing of a future referendum. Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen has called for a hearing on the euro issue on 22 January. The hearing may be used as leverage for a referendum later in the spring. Alternatively, the referendum might be held in 2010 . as the political agenda in autumn 2009 will be packed with the Copenhagen climate conference and local government elections.