Search
Flash Comment
0
0
US: Export sector powers on
Wed, Sep 3 2008, 06:58 GMT
by Peter Possing Andersen, Signe Roed-Frederiksen
Overview: The August ISM index stayed basically unchanged at
49.9 in line with our and consensus expectations. The index continues to indicate
that strong exports should provide the US manufacturing sector with resilience
against a weak domestic economy. The price index declined further to 77.0 in
August from 88.5 in July reflecting the easing price pressures from raw
materials.
Details: The details of the survey were mixed. New
orders rebounded to 48.3 from 45.0 in July, pushed up by export orders which
continue to show strength, rising to 57.0 from 54.0 in July. Production moved basically
sideways while inventories jumped to 49.3 from 45.0, indicating that the
current strength in production is likely to fade over the next few months. Customer
inventories took a jump as well, rising to 49.3 from 45.0 while employment fell
slightly to 49.7 from 51.9.
Prices Paid declined more than expected
to 77.0 down from 88.5 on easing price pressure from raw materials, especially
oil. Supplier deliveries declined to 50.3 from 55.1 supporting our view that
the recent months’
high index readings should not be seen as a sign of rising delivery times due
to general capacity pressure, but rather a reflection of tight global commodity
markets.
We read the significant increase in the
inventory index, which was not matched by a corresponding increase in new
orders, as a signal of further weakness ahead. Manufacturing production has
been on a weak trend in recent months, contradicting the signals we get from
the ISM headline. In our view, some of the divergence is likely explained by a
relatively larger representation of businesses related to the export sector in
the ISM survey compared to the sector’s importance for overall US manufacturing production.
Assessment & Outlook: Going forward, we continue to favour a
scenario in which the ISM will move lower over the coming months, as domestic
demand weakens further and global demand fades. However, lean inventories and a
strong export sector are likely to keep the ISM index from collapsing. We are
looking for a bottom around 47 within the coming months.
Published on Wed, Sep 3 2008, 07:02 GMT
Archive
- USA: Bernanke ready to take further steps
Published On Tue, Dec 2 2008, 11:27 GMT - FOMC: The sound of whirring rotors
Published On Tue, Nov 25 2008, 16:49 GMT - Russia: Gradual rouble devaluation is wrong strategy
Published On Tue, Nov 25 2008, 10:01 GMT - Hungary: Risky move by MNB
Published On Mon, Nov 24 2008, 16:12 GMT - Denmark: Budget slipping into the red
Published On Mon, Nov 24 2008, 15:33 GMT
Danske Bank
| Holmens Kanal 2-12, DK-1092 Copenhagen
http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
  Contact the broker/FDM Open a demo account  |  Contact the broker/FDM Open a demo account |  Contact the broker/FDM Open a demo account |  Contact the broker/FDM Open a demo account |  Contact the broker/FDM |
FXstreet.com will give you a 3 months membership as soon as minimum rebates have been generated (€150 for private trader/ €300 for corporate trader)
[Read Premium full description]
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2008 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.