Economic Data

- (RU) Russia Money Supply w/e Jul; 26th: 5.13T v 5.13T prior

- (FI) Finland May Final Trade Balance: €160M v €190M prior

- (GE) Germany Jun Retail Sales M/M: -0.9% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 1.0%e

- (HU) Hungary May Final Trade Balance: €423.6M v €428.8M prior

- (SP) Spain Q2 Unemployment Rate: 20.1% v 20.0%e

- (TU) Turkey Jun Trade Balance (TRY): -5.6B v -6.1Be

- (NO) Norway July Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.1%e

- (TH) Thailand Jun Current Account: $681M v $2.0Be; Total Trade Balance: $2.5B v $2.3B prior; Overall Trade Balance: $2.2B v -$989M prior

- (TH) Thailand Jun Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 21.3% v 18.5%e; Total Capacity Utilization: 68.6% v 67.3% prior; Manufacturing Prod Index: 216.7 v 205.8 prior

- (TH) Thailand Jun Business Sentiment Index: 52.1 v 49.9 prior

- (SW) Sweden Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.2% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.4%e

- (SW) Sweden May Non-Manual Wages Y/Y: 1.5% v1.8% prior

- (SP) Spain May Current Account: -€4.8B v -€5.2B prior

- (CZ) Czech Jun Money Supply Y/Y: 5.2% v 4.1% prior

- (IT) Italy Jun PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.6%e

- (HK) Hong Kong Jun M3 Money Supply M3 Y/Y: 3.1% v 4.4% prior

- (HK) Hong Kong Jun Budget (HKD): -0.9B v -9.1B prior

- (GR) Greece May Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.2% v -0.4% prior

- (IC) Iceland Jun Final Trade Balance (ISK): 8.7B v 8.6B prior

- (IT) Italy July Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.5%e

- (IT) Italy July Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.9% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e

- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Unemployment Rate: 10.0% v 10.0%e

- (EU) Euro Zone July CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e

- (MA) Malaysia Jun M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.8 v 8.1% prior

- (SZ) Swiss July KOF Leading Indicator: 2.23 v 2.3e

- (IT) Italy Jun Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.8%e


SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM 


Notes/Observations

- Three-month Euribor declines for the first time in 45 sessions

- Asian equity markets -0.3% to -1.5% on the back of US. Fed's Bullard concern over US recovery weighing upon global stock sentiment ahead of US GDP data

- Euro set for its first MoM gain since Nov 2009

Equities

- As of 5:30am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.7% at 2,733 ; DAX Index -.5% at 6,101; CAC-40 Index -0.6% at 3,632 and FTSE 100 Index -0.4% at 5,291

Among notable European names reporting today, EDF surprised positively on revenues which were higher than estimates. The net disappointed but this year it included charges due to provisions from the group's US activities. Overall outlook was positive with expectations for a rise in nuclear production. Similar to EDF, HeidelbergCement disappointed on the net but revenue was higher than expected. The outlook was positive as company guided FY10 revenues and earnings to rise on a yearly basis. Both names opened higher. Total beat estimates both on revenues and earnings and reported rising revenues on both downstream and upstream segments. Other metrics were also positive despite a decline in refinery throughput. Shares opened higher by less than 1%. Alcatel Lucent beat significantly the estimates on net and operating profit. The revenue came also higher than estimates at €3.81B and debt was reduced significantly over the quarter. Company maintained expectations of nominal growth in the market. The only disappointing name was Lafarge which not only missed the estimates on both net and revenues but also lowered guidance for FY10 cement demand. Shares opened down 1.9%. In UK names, British Airways managed to narrow its loss and revenues came in slightly higher than expected. The shining spot was the cargo revenue which increased by 36.7% on a yearly basis but passenger revenue declined by 3.4%. The outlook was positive for both passenger and cargo traffic. Shares opened up 1.8% after results. United Business Media opened higher by 1.1% as company reported increasing net but slightly lower revenues on a yearly basis. Company also announced it had acquired International-Baby-Maternity Products in China, hoping to expand its business in the far east.

Speakers:

- China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): China not to push hard for yuan currency to become a reserve currency

- Moodys: Spain's AAA sovereign rating may go down "a bit" but did not expect the country's rating to decline as much as Greece . The rating agency reiterated that the US needed a clear plan to tackle its debt and would watch the country's political will to curb the deficit. It would watch the US political situation over next `couple of years. It cautioned that slower US growth might hinder fiscal repair

- Japan PM Kan: Government will focus on necessary spending to stimulate economic growth and boost employment when forming the budget for fiscal 2011.

- Currencies: The USD was mixed against the major pairs on the last day of the month. The dollar managed a reprieve against the Euro with euro weakness attributed to month-end redemption flows from Spanish debt. A weak German retail sales number also weighed upon Euro sentiment. Overall dealers noted that the greenback has yet to capitalize on safe-haven flows despite the soft global equity markets. The JPY is firmer on risk aversion flows against the major pairs. USD/JPY probed the 86.20 level where is stalled ahead of the NY morning. The usual chatter of Kampo dollar bids made the round. The key level in the pair remains the 85.00 where possible central bank action might lurk. The three-month euribor rate registered its first daily decline in 45 days.

In the Papers-Geopolitical:

- The Wall Street Journal stated that despite signs of improving investor sentiment in Europe, the Euribor has remained at elevated levels. Some analysts believe the levels of Euribor signal that trouble may be ahead, while others believe that it may be a reflection of a new normal in credit markets. Note that today's 3-month Euribor fixing registered it first decline in 45 days at 0.896% against yesterday's 0.899%.

-The Financial Times reported that banks in the US are finding it easier to issue debt than their European counterparts, and as a result US banks are benefitting from improved earnings and growing investor demand for their bonds.

- IMF remarked that it supports further stimulus to maintain US recovery. The stress test on 53 US banks showed some vulnerability, mainly among smaller financial firms and firms that have high exposures to commercial property. Banks in the baseline scenario require $14.2B in capital to maintain a 6% tier 1 common capital ratio for 2010-14. Under the adverse scenario, banks need $44.6B.

- Beginning April of next year, Britain will scrap its current retirement age of 65. The new plans would not make workers continue though they would have the option to versus the current system where workers must retire at 65 unless they opt out or receive employer permission. The new plans have received wide support by workers and employer groups.

- An explosion was reported in the Thailand capital of Bangkok resulting in one fatality with several more injured. Though no group has yet taken responsibility, the incident may lead to further possibilities of civil unrest following the protests in April and May.


Looking Ahead 

- (PO) Portugal Jun Industrial Production M/M: % v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.6% prior

- (PO) Portugal Jun Retail Sales M/M: % v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.2% prior

- (BE) Belgium Jun Budget Balance (YTD): € v -€10.0B prior

- 8:00 (SA) South Africa Jun Trade Balance (ZAR): -1.6Be v -0.3B prior

- 8:15 (BE) Belgium Jun Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.6% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canada May Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior

- 8:30 (SA) South Africa Jun Budget (ZAR) 4.6be v -20.9B prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 Advanced GDP QoQ Annualized: 2.6%e v 2.7% prior; Personal Consumption: 2.4%e v 3.0% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 Advanced GDP Price Index: 1.1%e v 1.1% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.0%e v 0.7% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 Preliminary Employment Cost Index: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior

- 9:00 (CL) Chile Jun Unemployment Rate: 8.9%e v 8.8% prior

- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior

- 9:00 (IN) India weekly FX reserve

- 9:45 (US) July Chicago Purchasing Manager: 56.0e v 59.1 prior

- 9:55 (US) July Final University of Michigan Confidence: 67.0e v 66.5 prior

- 10:00 (US) July NAPM-Milwaukee: 57.0 v 59 prior

- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Unemployment Rate: 12.8%e v 12.8% prior

- 15:00 (AR) Jun Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 11.8% prior

- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Jun Budget Balance (YTD): No est v -3.8B prior

Weekend releases:

- (CH) China Jul PMI : 51.4e v 52.1 prior

- (KS) South Korea July Trade Balance: No est v $7.5B prior