European Market Update: JP Morgan earnings due before the open; risk aversion helps JPY currency firm; Realtytrac: Q2 foreclosures at record highs with unemployment cited as catalyst


ECONOMIC DATA

- (FR) French June Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.3% ; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.4%e

- (FR) French June CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.5%e

- (FR) French June CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 118.33 v 118.48e

- (HU) Hungarian May Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 2.5% v 3.4%e

- (TU) Turkish June Consumer Confidence: 85.3 v 85.0e

- (SP) Spain May House transactions Y/Y: -32.2% v -47.6% prior

- (NV) Netherlands May Retail Sales Y/Y: -8.9% v -4.0%e

- Swedish Riksbank Minutes: Reiterates that decision to cut by 25bps was not unanimous

- (IT) Italian May Total Trade Balance: €1.2B v €0.0Me; Trade Balance EU: -€248M v -€221.0M prior

- (SZ) Swiss ZEW Expectations Survey: 0.0 v 9.7 prior

- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserve USD w/e July 10th: $400.7B v $409.1B prior


SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

- Following Wednesday's significant equity gains, markets in Europe opened on a muted note with mixed trading ranges above and below the unchanged line. This subdued opening followed patterns seen in Asian trading sessions but masked the significant flow of corporate and government data. Earnings included major Pharma Novartis [NOVN.SZ], fertilizer producer Yara [YAR.NO], liquor maker Remy Cointerau [RCO.FR] and mobile phone JV SonyEricsson. In on-going sagas, Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] has reportedly withdrawn its entire iron ore and steel market research staff from mainland China, while Porsche [PAH3.GE] has stated that no final strategy agreement has been reached between Piech family and the company, Lufthansa [LHA.GE] stated that no new arrangements have been offered regarding Austrian Air buy. After a mixed open, equities sharply rallied on little specific corporate or data news at 3:15EST, this enthusiasm waxed and markets retested the unchanged line by 3:45EST in choppy trading. Italian trade balance, coming in at a +€1.18B figure sent equity markets, specifically the MIB, sharply lower as internal figures showed that both exports and imports both fell sharply m/m and y/y.
Equities printed their session lows following this data but soon showed signs of recovering. Bourses recovered to the unchanged mark and traded in a tight range for the remainder of the 4:00EST hr. By 5:00EST markets were negative across the board with oil/gas and utility sectors leading lagers as oil moved lower and threatened to break south of $61/share. Trading volume remained in-line with expected summer lows with the CAC even slightly trading above its moving average. Markets continue to eye corporate earnings, most notably Nokia [NOK1V.FH] and the financial giant JP Morgan [JPM] before the NY open.

- In individual equities: Sony Ericsson JV reported a Q2 net loss of €213M worse than the v €346M expected. Rev were also short at €1.68B compared to €1.80B expected. It Q2 Gross Margin 12% versus 8% q/q, Q2 Units shipped 13.8M (-5% q/q), Q2 APS €122 v €120 q/q, Q2 Global market share 5% v 6% q/q (a third sequential decline). Co maintains its forecast that the global handset market for 2009 will continue to contract by at least 10% from around 1,190 million units in 2008. Sales decline was due to continued challenging market conditions in all regions, particularly in Latin American markets. Novartis [NOVN.SZ] Reported Q2 Net $2.04B roughly in line with $2.1B expected, Rev $10.5B also in line with $10.4B consensus. Reaffirmed FY09 Group net sales growing at a mid-single-digit rate in local currencies. Pharmaceuticals net sales are now expected to expand at a minimum high-single-digit rate in 2009, also in local currencies. Underlying growth in operating and net income to record levels in 2009, however, could be more than offset in reported results by currency-related losses. Remy Cointreau [RCO.FR] Reported Q1 Rev €138.6M versus €149.9M y/y. Confident it is able to withstand difficult market environment. To propose dividend of €1.30/shr at AGM. 3-month sales of liqueurs and spirits -5.3% y/y, champagne -39.4% y/y, congnac -4.5% y/y. Will continue focus on core brands, premium labels. Alstom [ALO.FR] Reported Q1 Rev €4.8B slightly above the €4.57Bexpectations. The total backlog, at €46.6B, represents around 29 months of sales on 30 June 2009. Lufthansa [LHA.GE] See continued risks to losses in H1 on the back of rising fuel costs. Overall negative trends from the beginning of 2009 are seen as continuing. Medium term aim will be to reduce workforce by 20% in line with cost savings operations (€1B through 2011). Majority of these cutbacks are seen to take place in Germany. Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Reportedly firm has pulled all iron ore and steel research workers from China. Company has declined to provide any comment on the reports. Shire [SHP.UK] Received fast track designation for Velaglucerase Alfa. Co has received Fast Track designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for velaglucerase alfa, its enzyme replacement therapy in development for the treatment of Type I Gaucher disease. Shire is working with the FDA to determine subsequent steps and timing for the filing of its NDA. Autonomy [AU.UK] Reports Q2 Pretax $89.6M v $50.8M y/y, Rev $195M v 125.6M. CEO: Despite the continued uncertainty in the markets, we remain cautiously optimistic.We are seeing, for example with our recent significant legal hold license deal, the second of the three waves of regulatory technology investment. Petrofac [PFC.UK] JV Awarded Abu Dhabi integrated gas development contract worth an estimated $1B. The $2.1B, 48-month lump-sum contract which is due to commence in August 2009 is for the construction of the 4th NGL train at the Ruwais complex in Abu Dhabi. Fresnillo [FRES.UK] Provided production update: Silver production at 9.6M tons +6.7% y/y. Quarter gold production at 68K tons, remains confident of achieving its full year 2009 production target levels. Annual wage negotiation was successfully concluded at Ciénega mine, completing all negotiations with the Unions for the year 2009. LSE [LSE.UK] Plans to launch a new market for the trading of corporate bonds targeting retail investors - FT. LSE also plans to expand its over-the-counter derivatives clearing business. Furthermore, the company may expand into equity derivatives.
Raiffeisen [RIBH.AS] Seeking to raises €1.25B in new capital (approx 3% of market cap). To raise €650M in hybrid Tier 1 debt. Ferrovial [FER.SP] The last remaining bidding consortium for London's Gatwick Airport is refusing to raise its £1.4B bid - FT. BAA wants £100M more than the group led by Manchester Airport Group and Canadian infrastructure fund Borealis is willing to pay. Magnitogorsk [MAGN.RU] Reports Q2 Steel product output 1.92M tons v 2.07M tons q/q. Q2 Hot Rolled steel output -13% q/q. Q2 Cold rolled steel output +47% q/q. Stopped semi-finished product sales in H1 to focus on high value products. Electrolux [ELUXB.SW] Reports Q2 Net SEK658M v SEK565Me, Rev SEK27.5B v SEK27.6Be. Yara [YAR.NO] Reports Q2 Net NOK1.1B v NOK876.5Me, Rev NOK13.8B v NOK14.6Be. Guides Q3 energy costs at NOK1.6B, Q4 costs at NOK1.2B. Sees long term demand for fertilizer products remaining strong. US producers have been seen reducing current stock levels. Total inventories seen down 16% on y/y basis. Global fertilizer consumption levels seen -5% y/y (compared to 2008/2009 levels).

- In speakers: BoE's Barker commented that she expected the impact from £125B Quantitative Easing measures to be felt more powerfully in 2010. She conceded that economic conditions were stabilizing and that growth should return late this year. Polish Central Banker Noga reiterated his view that interest rates cannot be cut any further. Riksbank's Ingves commented about the July 2nd interest rate cut in Sweden. He noted that the 25bps cut to 0.25% was appropriate. Ingves also noted that the central bank could take further special measures if necessary. He noted that its labor market continued to worsen at a rapid rate and that the global economic recovery could take time to unfold. A Japanese opposition DPJ lawmaker commented that the government should not intervene in currency markets unless FX moves are abnormal. He noted that there should be no change composition of currency reserves required as its confidence in USD remains high.

- In currencies: The session was marked by quiet consolidation for the USD against the major European pairs. The EUR/USD probed around the 1.4070 level for the majorioty of the morning. The JPY was broadly firmer on some risk aversion concerns. Chatter continued to circulated that lender CIT will file for bankruptcy and aa RealtyTrac report showed a new record gains in U.S. foreclosures as the effect of job losses impact consumers ability to pay. USD/JPY back below the 93.70 level, while EUR/JPY slipped over a 100 pips to test 131.70 area.

- In energy/commodities: Fitch said that global oil refining is confronting substantial challenges. The rating agency projects a substantial weakening in funds from operations (FFO) and the credit metrics of refining companies in 2009 and 2010, driven by lower refinery utilization rates and weaker refining margins. EU Commission noted that it would declare gas emergency if it loses 10% of gas imports. The commission noted that EU states must prepare gas security risk assessments by Sept 2010

- In Fixed Income Supply: The potential demise of CIT has facilitated a bid into Treasury markets in overnight trade, bringing yields back from their highest levels of the month. Nonetheless, with the 2y Note back below 1.00%, better buying in the short end has led to further steepening of the yield curve with 2s10 above 260bps for the first time since early May.
It's a different story in Europe, where prices are modestly lower after a deluge of supply was reasonably well recieved.
France sold €7.5B in BTANs, Spain sold €2.4B in 15y Bono's - both towards the high end of expectations in terms of size, whilst the UK sold £1.25B in 23yr index linked Gilts in a mini tender, with no hiccups to report.


NOTES

All eyes on JPM earnings before the bell… IBM and GOOG after the close. BAC and C tomorrow.

- CIT readies for bankruptcy despite the $2.3B in TARP investment

- Fitch lowers New Zealand's sovereign outlook to negative from Positive; rating affirmed at AA+

- BoJ raises its economic outlook for the third straight month. Economy likely to pick up over time.

- Singapore Central Bank: Despite sharp rebound in Q2, economy likely to see slow and uneven growth

- Realtytrac: Q2 foreclosures at record highs with unemployment cited as the force behind foreclosures. 2009 filings seen at record 4M.

- UAE central bank to hold meeting with regional banks on Saudi exposure.

- China: Economic recovery is intensifying but remains below potential. GDP +7.9% on back of credit boom.


Looking Ahead

- 8:00 (PD) Polish June Avg Gross Wages M/M: 3.0%e v -3.1% prior, Y/Y: 2.9% e v 3.8% prior

- 8:00 (PD) Polish June Employment M/M: -0.2%e v -0.3% prior, Y/Y: -1.9%e v -1.7% prior

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims W/E July 11th: 553Ke v 565K prior

- 8:30 (US) Continuing Claims w/e Jul 4th: 6.85Me v 6.88M prior

- 8:30 (US) May Net Long-term TIC Flows $16.5B e v $11.2B prior

- 8:30 (US) May Total Net TIC Flows -$11.2B e v -$53.2B prior

- 8:30 (US) July Philadelphia Fed. -4.8 e v -2.2 prior

- 11:00 (US) Fed to conduct outright TIPS purchase

- 12:00 (TU) Turkish Base Rate Decision: 8.25%e v 8.75% prior

- 13:00 (US) July NAHB Housing Market Index 16 e v 15 prior