European Market Update: USD softer on reserve management adjustment chatter; OECD revises its 2009 GDP view upward for its members for the first time in two years


ECONOMIC DATA

- (AS) Austrian Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v -0.5%e, Y/Y: -10.8 v -14.3% prior

- (IT) Italian Jun Consumer Confidence: 105.4 v 104.7e

- (IT) Italian Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -2.8%e

- (NO) Norwegian Apr Unemployment Rate: 3.1% v 3.3%e

- (EU) Eurozone April Current Account: -€5.9B v -€7.0B prior, Current Account NSA: -€9.2B v -€4.0B prior

- OECD May Economic Outlook: Revises its 2009 GDP for member countries to -4.1% from -4.3% prior view; first upward revision in 2 years

- (SA) South African May CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 8.0% v 7.9%e

- (UK) YouGov: UK June CPI expectations 2.0% v 1.6% in May

- (UK) CBI June Distributive Trades: -17 v -17 prior


SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

- European equity markets opened to a broadly positive level following strong Asian and pre-market trading. Asian equity gains snapped two sharply negative sessions with traders commenting that short covering could account for some of the buying. European bourses opened positive following a large flow of equity news throughout the European morning. In sector performance, Oracle's post-market report out of the US buoyed tech and software names with German [SAP.GE] posting strong gains along with Cap Gemini [CAP.FR] and Alcatel [ALU.FR]. Within the FTSE, miner and basic resource names continued the rally out of the Australian bourse with Rio [RIO.UK], Anglo [AAL.UK], and Eurasian [ENRC.UK] moving higher. A further sector upgrade for UK commercial retail names out of Credit Suisse lifted those names, specifically Hammerson [HMSO.UK]. Negative sentiment could not be kept out equity bourses, however, and initial gains were paired by 3:15EST with all major indexes moving into the red. Healthcare and retail names led the sector declines, disappointing earnings out of large ticket retailers Kesa Electric [KESA.UK] precipitated continued retailer declines. Declines persisted through the 3:00EST hour and into 4:00EST. European bourses bounced around their lows past 4:15EST and began a slow upward trend on little fresh equity news. Markets began expecting comments out the ECB regarding its first 12-month refi operation. Comments out of the OECD at 4:30EST rallied equity markets sharply as the organization raised its member 2009 GDP target to a -4.1% from a previous -4.3%. Significantly, the OECD called for further ECB rate cuts and continuation of low levels for a considerable time. As expected, tech, basic resources and financials bounced on these comments. Equities again looked to pair their gains but new Euribor lows, with reductions in the 1, 3 and 6-month figures pushed equities to new highs. At 5:19EST the ECB released its 12-month refi results, announcing that €442.24B (ahead of expectations) had been allotted, equities pushed higher. The export heavy DAX lead the upward drift at +0.75%, the CAC at +0.50% and the FTSE lagging at +0.10%. Trading volumes through the European morning remained slightly muted, breaking a week that had been trending in line with moving averages.

- In specific equity news: Siemens [SIE.GE] reaffirmed its 2009 growth target as first given on April 29, with total profits expected to exceed €6.6B v €6.1Be. K+S [SDF.GE] cut its 2009 and 2010 global potash sales forecast. Worldwide sales in 2009 are now seen at 40M tons v 50M tons prior. Worldwide sales in 2010 are seen at 50M tons v 60M ton prior view. RWE [RWE.GE] reaffirmed its FY09 outlook, dividend payout to be 50-60% of recurring net €450M, efficiency enhancement targets remain on-line, and the company is seeking to extend savings to €1.2B by 2012. In addition, the EU cleared RWE to acquire Essent, with certain conditions. Commerzbank [CBK.GE] reiterated its FY2012 operating profit forecase of more than €4B v €4.8Be and ROE around 12%. The company's Q2 results have so far been mixed, with business in private client services still low. Commerzbank does not expect an operating profit in CEE regional operations. MAN's [MAN.GE] CEO said Q2 truck volumes should be comparable to Q1, noting that he is not seeing any real signs of improvement. Air France [AF.FR] has closed on €661M a convertible bond auction. Kesa Electricals [KESA.UK] reported a FY09 pretax loss of £81.8M (incl items) v £70.1Me, R £4.95B v £4.9Be. Stagecoach Group [SGC.UK] reports a FY09 pretax profit of £196.4M v £174.4M y/y and revenue of £2.10B v £1.8B y/y. Inchcape [INCH.UK] said five-month sales have fallen 22.6% in constant currency terms (-16% in GBP terms). The Wall Street Journal wrote that SAB Miller's [SAB.UK] market share is threatened by Heineken NV and Diageo PLC, who plan to begin South Africa operations in the next few months. In the US, the DoE formally granted $5.9B in new US loans to Ford, and $1.6B in loans to Renault's [RNO.FR] partner, Nissan. EADS [EAD.FR] rival Boeing is reportedly in discussions to compensate Asian customers over 787 Dreamliner delays. Schaeffler is delaying a full merger with Continental [CON.GE], according to Manager Magazine. Volkswagen would see that Porsche [PAH3.GE] Automobil would have an autonomous status under the VW unbrella, according to FT Deutschland. ENI [ENI.IT] declared force majeure on Brass River crude oil exports (Nigeria). Sulzer [SUN.SZ] is planning further cost cuts of up to CHF100M and cut 1,400 jobs ( about 11% of workforce), for a CHF55M charge.

- In speakers: the ECB's Gonzalez Paramo commented that the ECB would wait and see effect of new measures and reiterated the view that confidence remained the main challenge for the economy. Spain must be precise on budget exit strategy as the economy was no longer in 'free fall' but was still falling. (GE) German Fin Min Steinbureck commented that seeks to cut borrowing to €40B by 2014 and to comply with Maastricht Stability pact (deficit at 3% of GDP) by 2013 or 2014. Note: earlier this month Steinbureck confirmed that new borrowing for 2010 is expected at €90B, with a deficit of 4% of GDP in 2009, 6% in 2010, and below 3% of GDP in 2013 BoJ's Nakamura commented that current financial conditions remained severe. He noted that it was too early to either end or even extend extraordinary policies. When the time does come to end the extraordinary measures it must be done in a way that would not surprise the markets. BOJ might end unusual measures when market recovers 'significantly'. He commented that the recent decline in long-term yields seemed to be occurring on receding optimism. BoJ Shirakawa commented that Japan's economic decline has likely bottomed but it would continue to support economy with downside risks in mind OCED commented on their member states and noted that Current FX rates are not affecting economic recovery, though strong JPY was hurting Japan. The weak USD was not a concern and that the Chinese Yuan would need an adjustment in long term. Chinese Govt has room for more fiscal stimulus in 2010. It noted that by 2011 Govts could start to unwind stimulus programs. OECD was not concerned over deflation or inflation issues and that rise in yields was due to normalization and not inflationary fears. The OECD did note that out of control budget deficits could lead to "blowout" in bond yields. On budgets; OECD preferred spending cuts to curb deficits rather than tax hikes. Preferable that Central banks keep interest rates to as close to zero as possible. ECB has room to cut rates further and should act quickly. ECB and BoJ should announce intentions to keep interest rates low World Bank forecasted 2009 Russia GDP -7.9%, jobless rate at 13%, Inflation reaching 11-13%.

- In currencies: The USD began the European session on a soft note as Eastern European names were seen as 'aggressive' Euro buyers and this seemed to correspond with comments made yesterday by Russian Deputy PM Shuvalov in which he noted that its Central bank (CBR) was working on new steps to diversify currency reserves. EUR/USD traded as high as 1.4138 before consolidating. The OECD report on growth among its current members seem to help the USD steady a bit. The OECD raised US 2009 GDP view to -2.8% v -4% prior while cutting Euro-Zone's 2009 GDP view to -4.8% v -4.1% prior. The report also commented that ECB had room to cut rates further and should act quickly in doing so. OECD added that both the ECB and BoJ should announce intentions to keep interest rates low for a period of time. The EUR/USD tested 1.4060 as the morning wore on. Dealers also reported good demand from Middle Eastern players for GBP-related pairs. GBP/USD re-approached the 1.6600 area before retreating and EUR/GBP moved lower to 0.8500.

- In fixed income: with equities bid, Government bonds have been on a weaker footing for most of the European session. However, news that banks, in the belief that rates are unlikely to fall further, had taken advantage of the ECB's first offering of 12 month funds more enthusiastically than expected provided a boost to short dated issues and sent the German yield curve steeper, with 2s10s currently back above 200bps. (European Banks borrowed €442B worth of 1 year funds at 1%, more than circa €300B expected) After opening offered, Gilts have managed to remain in positive territory with some slight steepening in the UK yield curve . Three month Euribor fixed at a new low of 1.195%.


NOTES

- USD maintains a soft tone into FOMC meeting with reserve management adjustment allegedly behind the move.

- IMF may increase its 2009 and 2010 GDP estimates for most of Asia, excluding India and China, by about 1 percentage point

- China's northern province of Liaoning, Asia's largest iron ore deposit has been discovered containing reserves of more than 3B metric tons.

- Japan's exports continued to tumble in May

- Japan's Cabinet Office is expected to forecast an approximately 1% expansion in the country's real GDP for 2010. This would be the first time in 3 years that the government projects economic growth

- China ordered local banks to avoid accelerating loan growth at the end of months and quarters

- Fed to start to hint at an exit strategy. Fed to repeat its commitment to "exceptionally low" rates for an extended period?

Looking Ahead

- (PD) Polish Interest Rate Decision: 25bps cut to 3.50% expected (current Base Rate is 3.75%)

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 19th: No expectations v -15.8% prior

- 8:30 (US) May Durable Goods Orders: -0.9%e v 1.9% prior, Durables ex Transportation: -0.5%e v 0.8% prior

- 9:30 (BR) Brazil May Current Account: -$1.14Be v $146M prior

- 9:30 (UK) Boe's King, Bean, Fisher, Sentence, Barker, Haldane testify at Treasury select committee

- 10:00 (US) May New Home Sales: 360Ke v 352K prior, M/M: 2.3%e v 0.3% prior

- 11:30 (IT) ECB's Bini Smaghi speaks in Rome

- 13:00 (US) US to sell $35B in 5y Notes

- 14:15 (US) FOMC Rate Decision