European Market Update: European equities shrug off risk aversion for the time being; PMI data continues to improve


ECONOMIC DATA

- (FI) Finland May Unemployment Rate: 10.9% v 10.6%e

- (GE) German July GFK Consumer Confidence: 2.9 v 2.5ee

- (SZ) Swiss May Trade Balance: CHF2.0B v CHF2.6B prior

- (FR) French May Consumer Spending M/M: -0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -0.4%e

- (FR) French June Business Confidence Indicator: 75 v 74e; Production Outlook Indicator: -40 v -47e; Own Company Production Outlook: -18 v -27e

- (FR) French Preliminary June PMI Manufacturing: 45.5 v 44.5e; PMI Services: 47.5 v 48.6e

- (GE) German June Adv PMI Manufacturing: v 41.0e; PMI Services: v 46.0e

- (EU) Eurozone June Adv PMI Manufacturing: 40.5 v 42.1e, PMI Services: 44.3v 45.6e; Composite: 44.4 v 44.9e

- (UK) BBA Loans for House Purchase: 31.2K v 29Ke


SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

- European equity markets extended a two-day mixed open trend following expectedly mixed and muted economic and corporate sentiment. Down trading sessions in NY, Asia and Australia alluded to a lower European opening as Asian banks and miners declined significantly on continued fears of a deeper, more prolonged equity slide. Specifically, Australian equities on the ASX fell by more than -3.0% led predictably by the basic resource sector. Peripheral European markets, most notably Russia, continued their severe declines as seen on Monday with Russian banks, oil and gas and industrials plunging 10% in early trade. Vague chatter of a Chinese banking reserve requirement alteration and comments from Moody's reaffirming the US's AAA ratings challenged this negative sentiment and lifted European bourses. The DAX led the positive movement with more "less bad" statements from steel maker ThyssenKrup [TKA.GE] that mirrored statements from Salzgitter [SZG.GE] from yesterday's session. German-listed industrial and manufacturing names caught lift from these remarks, as did utility names following a sector upgrade by JP Morgan. French markets were underperformers, held down Peugeot's [UG.FR] bearish revised outlook, which negatively affected the pan automotive sector. Equity bourses moved off their opening lows and trended positive through the 3:00EST hour. Commentary out of BoE economist Dale, who reiterating previously known information regarding the remaining purchases left in the reverse Gilt auction program (provisionally set to end in July), followed by back-to-back moderating comments from Siemens [SIE.GE] and SAP [SAP.GE] sent markets rapidly south. This progression snapped and then rapidly reproached after the 4:30EST UK BBA loans for home purchase release for May. That figure showed continued improvement (ahead of expectations) and helped rally equity markets, specifically financial names that had largely underperformed. ECB speak at 4:40EST extended the equity uplift and the CAC, DAX and FTSE reentered positive territory. Past 5:00EST, the CAC and DAX printed new session highs on trading volumes that were for the second consecutive session ahead of averages.

- In individual equities: ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] reaffirmd its forecast for a FY09 loss of "mid range to upper three digit million euro" v loss €754Me (as given on 5/12). SAP's [SAP.GE] CFO said visibility is "very limited" for 2009 and beyond; to carefully manage cost base this year. Reiterates plans for targeted acquisitions to expand presence in markets. BASF [BAS.GE] Exec: Expected to see a decline in FY09 sales compared to FY08. Expects FY09 income from ops to have an 'even greater decline.' Anglo American [AAL.UK] formally rejected Xstrata's offer, calling it "unattractive." Thomson Reuters [TRIL.UK] proposed to unify its dual-listed corporate structure and reaffirmd its FY09 guidance. Thomson Reuters PLC shareholders will receive one share in Thomson Reuters Corporation for every PLC share held. Holders of Thomson Reuters PLC American Depositary Shares (ADSs) would receive six Thomson Reuters Corporation common shares for each ADS held. Drax [DRX.UK] placed 25.5M ordinary shares (7.5% of outstanding ordinary capital), in an attempt to raise approximately £100M. Debenhams [DEB.UK] disclosed the results of its placement announced June 4th, noting that it received acceptances for 30.3% of open offer shares, remaining 69.7% allocated to placees, issue price of 80p/shr.
Chemring [CHG.UK] reported an H1 Pretax £29.9M v £40Me, Rev £233.5M v £209Me. Total Order book of £603M (+42% y/y). Bunzl [BNZL.UK] reported H1 Rev +17% y/y. Eurasian Natural Resources [ENRC.UK] said that Kazakh output levels may return to 2008 levels by 2010. Peugeot [UG.FR] guided a FY09 recurring operating loss at €1-2B v €1.3Be, stating that Q4 production to fall. Does not see liquidity risk for next year. Launches €500-575M convertible bond offering (11% of market cap). Further bond sales may be held depending on the condition of the market. Danone [BN.FR] Completed €3B rights issue, demand totalled 182% or €5.5B. Reminder back on 25 May: Plans to raise €3B in a rights offering (14.8% of market cap). Vinci [DG.FR] Awarded €323M contract for 2nd phase of Cairo subway line. Hypo Real Estate [HRX.GE] Reiterates 2009, 2010 forecasts for a loss; To cut a further 1K positions (60% of workforce). Renewable Energy [REC.NO] priced a new rights offering for 170.5M shares at NOK26.50/share.

- In speakers: the ECB's Trichet commented that fiscal credibility was necessary for confidence and stressed that governments must remain prudent. The ECB reiterated its view that an economic recovery would begin in 2010 period. The ECB's Noyer commented that budget deficits should rise strongly between 2008 and 2010 period. Countries should cut their deficits and rebalance their budgets. Growth pickup must come with consolidation of public finances. He hoped that worst period has passed for economy and noted that the crisis has proved export-led growth models were vulnerable. He confessed that disinflation has been more rapid than he expected. Noyer commented that there was no need to begin withdrawing liquidity at this time and that the ECB might ease monetary policy further only if it does not interfere with its price stability targets. BoE Economist Dale stated that the BoE was on track to purchase £125B in bonds in its quantitative program by end of July and that policy makers needed to expand the range of instruments. Corporate bond spreads have narrowed sharply; corporate bond purchases should not be judged on scale alone and that the quantity of assets out towards APF might decline. Large purchases of credit run risk of crowding out markets. He noted that inflation targets to remain key to central bank policy and that current short term rates were not well suited for managing stability. He had little idea how long BoE would need to keep interest rates low.. ECB's Bini Smaghi commented the need to keep global imbalances in check and that short term responses in crisis could skew views. New monetary facilities must prevent future crisis as lessons from the Asian crisis were not implemented. The introduction of SDR's and new reserve currencies hold the risk of worsening current global imbalances. Concerned that developing countries are seeking a less intrusive IMF and would ease financing conditions. Swiss Watch Federation commented that the markets in US continued to be worrying. It noted that Hong Kong worsened only slowly. Watches in CHF200-500 price range showed slowest decline, down -10% in May y/y. South Africa Treasurer Dept commented that it might lower its FY growth forecasts in Oct. It also noted that it was around ZAR10B behind in tax collections and not likely to achieve FY target.. Moody's Director of Sovereign Cailleteau commented that the US sovereign "AAA" rating remains solid unless Gov't was unable to bring debt back to a downward trajectory or if USD is challenged as a main reserve currency. Moody's noted that any Japanese economic rebound was likely to be sluggish and global gov't finances might be severe German think tank RWI lowered its 2009 GDP forecast to -6.4% v -4.3% prior and trimmed its 2010 GDP view of 0.2% growth versus 0.5% prior view made back in March.. S&P's analyst Karmer commented that he saw no reason for a potential bailout of EMU countries. The estimates total EMU sovereign debt seen at €2.5 trillion.

- In Currencies: Risk aversion seemed poised to remain the driver of price action as the European morning commenced by chatter that PBoC would lower reserve requirement help to sooth over concerns. The rumor seemed to stem from Earlier comments from PBoC Deputy Gov Su Ning who again stressed that the Chinese economy was not yet on a solid footing.
The USD and JPY were following the equity price action under the risk appetite/aversion scenario throughout the morning. Overall the price action is choppy but the EUR/USD continues to maintain the broad 1.38 to 1.40 consolidation phase it has exhibited since late last week and ahead of the tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Sterling was choppy against its major pairs as comments from BOE'd Dale highlighted to ceiling of the 125B quantitative easing program would be hit be the end of July and that policy makers needed to expand the range of instruments and hinted that the quantity of assets might decline. The better BBA loans for house price data helped to stem the GBP losses. The USD ending the European morning nears its session lows against the European pairs as equity markets tested their bets levels.

- In energy: OPEC President Vasconcelos stated that it remained too early for further output decisions ||Oman Oil Min commented that it sees oil prices oscillating between $60-75/bbl in 2009 . it remained in talks with Iran for 1B CF/D of gas.

- In fixed income: Treasury Official Ramanathan stated that the US was "well placed" on its 2010 funding needs but stressed the country needed a coherent and consistent debt management approach. The official noted that Bill issuance would decline as the economy recovered ||Goldman analyst comments on bond yields and 'advised' long position in 10 year Note futures and noted that long dated bonds have 'decent rally ahead'. Goldman stated that talk of potential central bank tightening was 'premature'. German Planned Q3 bill and bond sales at €84B. It raised its total 2009 planned bill and bond sales to €358B from €346B prior forecasts.. host of sovereign supply was sold this morning in Europe with mixed results. France sold €6B in a new syndicated 30y OAT, more than the €4B originally expected. Ireland also sold €6B in 10s via syndicate, whilst the Netherlands sold €1.875B in a range of DSL via the more traditional auction method. Across the channel, the UK sold £4B in 2022 Gilts with mediocre results, the auction being covered 1.69 times (below the 2,25 prior) with an above average yield tail of 1.1bps. UST's are modestly weaker across the curve in overnight trade. The the new 2y Note yields 1.217% in the when issued market, implying a roll of about 6bps at the time of writing. Three month Euribor fixed at a new low of 1.205%.


NOTES

- Crisis of confidence emerging as real data has not kept up with optimism

- Fed begins day one of two-day meeting

- US Treasury begins first leg of $104B auction this week

- ECB continues to stress that budget issues must be addressed

- Euro zone PMI series (soft data) continues to recover

- Japan's FY08 tax receipts may decline to ¥44T v ¥51T y/y thus highlighting the recession impact on revenues and governments need to perhaps issue additional bonds to cover shortfall in taxes

- USTR to announce a WTO case against China on Tuesday.

- Iran to recall its UK Ambassador for "consultations" - BBC

- Iran post election unrest continues

- European equities in positive territory while Asia was painted red. China up on chatter of potential PBoC reserve requirement cut

Looking Ahead

- 8:30 (CA) BoC's Carney to speak in Washington

- 9:00 (GE) ECB's Weber speaks in Munich

- 9:00 (BE) Belgian June Business Confidence Level: -25.3e v -27.6 prior

- 10:00 (US) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 5e v 4 prior

- 10:00 (US) May Existing Home Sales: 4.82Me v 4.68M prior, M/M: 3.0%e v 2.9% prior

- 10:00 (US) April House Price Index M/M: -0.4%e v -1.1% prior

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 2y Notes