European Market Update: IEA raised its global oil demand forecast for the first time in 10 months; No currency discussions expected at weekend G8


ECONOMIC DATA

- (US) RealtyTrac: US May Foreclosure Activity 321.5K v 342K (-6% m/m), +18% y/y (third highest on record)

- (FR) French Q1 Final Non-farm Payrolls: -1.2%% v -0.9% prior

- (CZ) Czech Apr Final Industrial Output Y/Y: -22.1% v -23.0%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 2.1% v -9.0% prior

- (HU) Hungarian May Consumer Prices M/M: 1.5% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v3.1%e

- (RU) Russian May Producer Prices M/M: 0.6% v 2.3%e; Y/Y: -6.5% v -6.7%e

- (SW) Swedish May CPI - Headline Rate M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.5%e

- (SW) Swedish May CPI- Underlying Inflation M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e; CPI Level: 299.45 v 299.46e

- (SW) Swedish May AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 4.7%e

- (EU) ECB June Monthly Report: Reiterates that economic growth set to resume in mid-2010 period. Risks to inflation are 'broadly balanced' and that current interest rates of 1.0% are 'appropriate.

- IEA monthly report raised global crude oil demand by 12K to 83.3M bpd; first increase in 10 months; Global oil supply at 83.7M bpd, down 210K bpd

- (UK) BoE Quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey: 1-year CPI expectations at 2.4% v 2.1% q/q

- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Jun 5th: $409.5B v $401.1B prior

- European equity markets continue to search for a direction this morning. Having traded in a funk more or less since May 7th, erratic equity behavior on the open epitomized the lack of clear momentum. Asian equities took a strong boost past 20:00est following Japan's Q1 final q/q GDP read coming in 'less bad' than expected at -3.8%. This reading sent Japanese markets above the 10K handle and US S&P futures sharply higher. The positivity carried into the European pre-market with futures opening higher, looking to continue yesterday's positive session. Gains proved illusionary and as Asian equity markets slipped from their best levels, Euro futures, aided by weak earnings out of Club Med [CU.FR]. Home Retail [HOME.UK] and Premier Farnell [PFL.UK] slipped into the red. On the open, the CAC, DAX and FTSE opened down, the CAC40 showed the largest declines at Vallourec [VK.FR] traded -6%. As with every other recent trend, this movement was not to last. A recovery in capital good shares, following a pre-market call out of Goldman Sachs, led an equity recovery with the industrial heavy DAX turning positive by 3:15EST. Markets again slipped negative across the board in high volatility leading up to 4:00EST. 4:00EST saw the release of the ECB's monthly report showing little change from the group. The IEA's monthly report at the same time showed the first demand increase for oil in 10-months. This comment and its implications for a recovery in economic activity rallied markets. The FTSE and CAC printed their first positive readings while the DAX traded as high as +0.40%. European equity markets continued this linear upward trend through the 4:00EST hr, recovery in commodity and energy futures underscoring a mining and industrial up lift. German IFW comments regarding a -6% 2009 GDP and slight recovery in 2010 followed expectations and previous guidance. Markets stabilized and slipped off their best level past 5:15EST as traders began looking to the NY morning and US data including retail sales and continuing job claims.

- In individual equities: Air France's [AF.FR] CEO said the company has a complete lack of economic visibility for this year, although plane financing improving slowly. The company is still in the process of finding financing for A380s, and expects to receive its first A380 in October. The CEO aslo said he is not convinced that the failure of a speed probe led to last week's crash of flight 447. Premier Farnell [PFL.UK] reported Q1 Pretax profit £9.0M v £24.0M y/y, Op profit £13.5M v £24.2M y/y, Rev £204.3M v £199.3M y/y, GM 39.4% v 39.3% q/q. Home Retail Group [HOME.UK] Provides interim statement: Reports 13 week Argos LFL -2.8% y/y, Homebase LFL +3.7% y/y. 13-wk Argos sales £937M (+0.9% y/y), Gross Margin -0.75% y/y, 13-wk Homebase sales £465M (+5.8% y/y), Gross Margin -0.25% y/y. lackRock's $13B acquisition of Barclays Global Investors is likely to be announced by as early as Thursday, according to the WSJ. EADS [EAD.FR] denied press reports that it is mulling grounding its entire A330/340 fleet, insiting that the planes are safe. STM Microelectronics's [STM.FR] CEO said he expects to achieve sales target within 6 to 12 months; bottom was hit in Q1. Sees quarterly revenues between $2.3B to 2,4B; net cash flow at 6%-7% of sales. There were reports that Banco Santander [SAN.SP] would sell €2B worth of preferred shares (approx 3% of market cap). Preferred shares to yield 5.75% through July 2010, then fall to 4.75%.
Magnitogorsk [MAGN.RU] Reports Q1Net loss $110M v loss $55Me, EBITDA $99M v $166Me, Rev $965M v $910.5Me.
Production of crude steel and commercial products in Q1 2009 grew by 26% and 24% accordingly. EBITDA margin of the parent company equaled to 19.4% in Q1 2009. The Debt/Equity ratio as of March 31, 2009 was x0.2. Debt level of MMK Group is the lowest among the largest Russian peers: total debt stands at $1.694B, net debt at $775M.

- Speakers: ECB Noyer commented that the increase in unemployment would impact consumption but that declining prices combined with gov't stimulus operations would increase purchasing power. He noted that the IMF's special drawing rights (SDRs) cannot replace currencies for reserve purposes. ECB's Orphanides reiterated that price stability remains the cebtral bank's main mandate, but ECB is not blind to other policy goals. German Deputy Fin Min Asmussen stated that the upcoming G8 Finance Minister meeting in Italy this weekend would not discuss either FX or monetary policy. Rather, the meeting would focus on exit strategies from stimulus measures. He noted that there are the first signs for global economic stabilization but that high uncertainties to remain in financial markets. IMF was now more optimistic on US and Asian economies; and noted that any European recovery would lag the US upturn. He cautioned that the timing of a sustained recovery remained unclear. Must expect unemployment to rise. Lastly, he reiterated the german govt's 2009 GDP view of -6.0% and +0.5% in 2010. Germany Think tank IFW Institute forecasted 2009 German GDP -6.0% y/y, 2010 GDP +0.4% y/y (in line with government's current view). It expected ECB to cut rates to by 25bps to 0.75% at some point later this year and to start 'slowly' raising rates in Q4 2010.

- In currencies: The USD remained largely range-bound in the session and its price action continues to reflect the overall sentiments of the commodity direction. The EUR/USD began the session near the hourly pivotal level of 1.4050 and found some minor strength on the back of several ECB comment. ECB's Noyers SDRs comment. Noyer noted that the : IMF's special drawing rights (SDRs) unlikely to replace currencies for reserve purposes. However, the IEA monthly report saw global oil demand rise for the first time in 10 months and the resulting firmer oil price ebbed away at the USD. The higher UK quarterly inflationary expectations survey helped precious metals recover from earlier negative territory and added additional pressure on the greenback. Lastly German comments that no currency discussion at the weekend G8 meeting also weighed upon the USD sentiment. Nonetheless the EUR/USD maintaining the 1.3950 to 1.4050 range seen over the last day. EUR/GBP tested fresh 6-month lows near 0.8510. Manchester United deal to receive £80M to release Chistiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid highlighted the price movement in the cross.

- In Fixed Income: With the IEA raising its demand forecast for the first time in 10 months and the subsequent boost to risk appetite, Bunds and Gilts are unsurprisingly weaker this morning. The yield on the 10y Gilt is hovering around at its highest levels since November 2008 around 3.98%. The UK sold £725M in 2047 linkers with respectable results whilst Italy auctioned off just over €8B in a range of BTPs including a €4.8B in a new 5 year with the sale attracting decent bidding.
|||Treasuries have firmed up in overnight trade, with lower yields across the board and a touch of bull flattening in the yield curve. The yield 10y Note has fallen by about 2bps to 3.93%, and ahead of its second reopening the yield on the Long Bond is about 1.5bps lower at 4.75%.

- In Energy: The IEA monthly report saw its first increase in demand in 10 months. Global oil supply declined by 210K bpd to 83.7M bpd. Latest price moves in oil are not justified by fundamentals alone. The report raised non-OPEC supply forecast to 170K bpd to 50.5M bpd while reducing OPEC stocks forecast by 200K bpd to 27M bpd. It noted that May compliance with prior output cuts at 74% compared to 76% back in Apr. May floating oil storage was80M to85M bbl compared to 110-115M bbl a month ago. The OECD oil stock cover fell to 62 days v 62.4 days m/m. IEA noted that OPEC output cuts are having a bigger impact on markets as refining demand increases.

- Credit Crisis: FT reiterated a story that Spain was planning a €9B rescue fund that would target troubled savings banks.
The fund would be launched this month. The plan would allow the Bank of Spain to take control of banks that face problems and could borrow to leverage itself tenfold and so deploy up to €90B to finance re-capitalization and mergers. On Apr 20th, El Economista reported that Spain was seeking to create a €90B financial sector fund. On May 14th El Mundo reported most of the fund to be financed with Treasury backed debt and would be aimed at smaller savings banks (cajas) rather than big banks. ECB financial stability expert Dejan Krusec stated that, the ECB feared another banking crisis in 2010 if the recession dragged on. He noted that if there was a quick V-shaped recovery, the banks would be strong enough to weather the downturn, but if this is U-shaped the banks will have problems." |||


NOTES

- German Dep Fin Min: No currency discussions at weekend G8 meeting in Italy

- Brazil is not attempting to weaken the USD, does not benefit from a weaker USD.

- Economist Nouriel Roubini compares current Lativan currency crisis to that of Argentina in 2000/01. Rating agency Moody's noted that such a devaluation would likely to be avoided in the near term

- IEA raised its global oil demand forecast for the first time in 10 months

- Headwinds? The higher yield backdrop into raises concerns about the impact of higher mortgage rates to any US economic recovery

- RBNZ kept rates steady at 2.50%

- Looking Ahead: Focus on U.S. weekly jobless and retail sales today

- 8:00 (IC) Iceland May Unemployment rate: No estimate versus 9.1% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Q1 Capacity Utilization Rate:71.5% expected v 74.7% prior

- 8:30 (US) May Advance Retail Sales: 0.5% expected v -0.4% prior, Retail Sales less Autos: 0.2% expected v -0.5% prior

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jun 6th: 615k expected v 621k prior, Continuing Claims w/e May 30th: 6.78M expected v 6.735M prior

- 10:00 (US) Apr Business Inventories: -1.0% expected v -1.0% prior

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $11B 30y Bonds in reopening