European Market Update: Verbal currency intervention by Far East monetary authorities helps USD recovery from multi-month lows; energy and metals reverse session gains; UK PMI Services moves above the 50 level; Euro-Zone Q1 GDP stays at record low readings


ECONOMIC DATA

- (ID) Indonesian Central bank cuts Reference Rate by 25bps to 7.00%, as expected

- (NO) Norway May PMI: 41.0 v 42.0e

- (SP) Spain May Services PMI: 39.1 v 42.3 prior

- (SW) Sweden Q1 Current Account: SEK53.2B v SEK63.6B prior

- (IT) Italian May PMI Services: 43.1 v 43.0e

- (FR) French May Final PMI Services: 48.3 v 47.6e

- (GE) German May Final PMI Services: 45.2 v 46.0e

- (EU) Euro-Zone May PMI Services: 44.8 v 44.7e; PMI Composite: 44.0 v 43.9e

- (SP) Spain May Consumer Confidence: 63.8 v 61.9 prior

- (UK) May PMI Services: 51.7 v 49.5e

- (EU) Euro-zone GDP Q/Q: -2.5% v -2.5%e; Y/Y: -4.8% v -4.6%e


SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

- European equity markets opened on a mixed note, just as they closed on Tuesday's session. On Tuesday, markets did rally sharply following US pending home data following a broadly negative session. The CAC and FTSE closed moderately negative, with the DAX moderately positive on Tuesdays close. Despite a strong Asian trading session following surprise GDP figures out of Australia, the FTSE opened to the downside with the CAC and DAX moderately positive. Continental gains were erased in erratic trading with the CAC and DAX moving in and out of negative territory. Equity movers were dominated by news flow, rather than sector or macro news with Bouygues [EN.FR] trading lower on disappointing Q1 earnings in France and Amlin [AML.UK] trading lower on rights placement news to fund a former Fortis unit acquisition in London. Industrials, miners and financial names traded mixed following a wave of analyst actions to the up and downside driving trading action. Markets fluctuated for the first 30min of trading before selecting a downward trajectory past 3:30EST with the FTSE -1.0% and the CAC and DAX -0.3-0.5%. Markets continued trending downward into 4:00EST, taking a brief lift past 4:30EST as the UK PMI services for May came in above 50 for the first time since April 2008. This lift was cut short by action in the currency market as a joint Asian-gov statement in support of the USD, soon followed by a Chinese note supporting US Treasuries halted the multi-day dollar skid. Commodities, including oil and gold turned negative as the USD index ticked up and European equity markets resumed their downward march by 5:00EST.

- In individual equities: Amlin [AML.UK] acquired Fortis Corporate insurance for €350M, placing 23.5M shares (about 5% of shares outstanding). SportsBet [SBT.UK] reported a Q3 pretax £8.3M v £8.4Me, Rev £43.8M v £42.7Me, and announced 3.1M share issue. Bouygues [EN.FR] reported a Q1 net profit €160M v €160Me, down from €225M y/y; It lowered 2009 forecast for Rev to €31.3B vs €31.7B prior. Weakness in HSBC [HSBA.UK] is being attributed to chatter that a Saudi investor is selling its stake. Back on June 2 there were reports that Saudi investor al-Sanea might need to sell down its £2B stake. [BMW.GE] reported May total US sales 22,993, -27.7% y/y (v 19,362 m/m). Daimler [DAI.GE] Reports Mercedes Car division May US Sales 16,303; -33.4% y/y (v 15,910 m/m). Porsche [PAH3.GE] reported May US sales of 2,796 units, -29% y/y (v 2,044 m/m). VW [VOW.GE] reported May US sales of 19,568, -12.4% y/y (v 16,289 m/m). Deutsche Bourse [DB1.GE] reported May average daily volume at 11.8M v 12.8M y/y (-8% y/y), May Eurex 7.4M v 9.3M y/y, May ISE 4.4M v 3.5M y/y, and total May trades at €111.9B v €167.9B y/y.

- In speakers: a Joint statement was issued by Indian, South Korean, Japanese Monetary authorities, who noted that any US sovereign rating cut would have little impact on their respective FX reserve policy and that there were no alternative to USD as reserve currency. The ECB's Nowotny stated that the ECB staff projections to be released on Thursday would not provide "good numbers" and commented that there would be "massively negative" GDP for 2009 and zero GDP growth seen in 2010. He noted that negative inflation (not deflation) to persist in Europe for a "few months". ECB's Mercier commented that a negative deposit rate was technically possible but noted the ECB did not want to give the market such a signal at this time. Central Bank was reviewing asset-backed securities as collateral . He noted that that 'technically' negative interest rates have existed in both Japan and Switzerland. Reportedly Chinese Central Bank sees US Treasury holdings as 'partnership' -unconfirmed source. Chinese State Council stated that the foundation for economic recovery was not solid, global crisis has not yet reached a bottom. The Cabinet noted that unemployment rate continues to incrase while the rate of job growth was shrinking . BoJ's Kamezaki commented that it was too early to discuss exit strategies from its unconventional actions. Would exit temporary policies only when market fully stabilizes and labels the markets as still unstable. Fiscal health will be the key factor in determining proper L/T rate decisions, which should be in line with economy and prices. Increase in JGB supplies are seen as only one reason behind recent rise in yields. The BOJ member saw an economic recovery in near term, but the long term outlook continued to remain uncertain. The Japanese economy continues to deteriorate and its downside risks remain high. Polish Central Bank Head Skrzypek commented that the recent macroeconomic data has been more optimistic, and that Poland technically was not in crisis . he noted that Poland could sustain economic growth in 2009 Russian Presidential Aide Dvorkovich commented that Russia to have stability in H2 of year and that a potential second wave of crisis can be avoided Indonesian Deputy Central Banker stated that it saw the Rupiah currency appreciating further on the back of increased capital inflows into the country. Inflation outlook and Rupiah currency allows scope for interest rate cuts. German Auto VDIK reportedly considering raising 2009 sales outlook to 3.4-3.5M units.

- In currencies: USD and JPY currencies began the European morning maintaining a soft tone on rising risk appetite as oil and metals maintained their uptrend. European dealers were taking note of the positive Australian GDP reading earlier today as the main catalyst for the renewed rising risk appetite . EUR/USD hits fresh 5 month highs above 1.4335. Dealer chatter that the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) was again seen selling Euros at 1.4330 area capped the session gains. Comments from ECB's Nowotny about dismal staff projections at tomorrows policy meeting weight upon the initial enthusiasm of risk appetite and the Euro commenced its retracement process. The USD gathered momentum following a joint statement by Indian, South Korean, Japanese Monetary Authorities in which any potential US sovereign rating cut would have little impact on their respective FX reserve policy. They also stressed that there were no alternatives to USD as a reserve currency. EUR/USD proceeded slumped to 1.4212 from the 1.4285 level. GBP/USD fell 100 pips to 1.6545. Major commodities reversed their earlier gain on the back of the advancing USD. NYMEX crude probed the $69/barrel before dipping below the $68 handle while spot gold tested $990/oz prior to the 'verbal intervention' to retrace below $981/oz.
Weak Euro-Zone GDP helped to maintain the weight in European currency pairs (EUR, CHF, and GBP) against the USD.

-In Fixed Income: A pullback in equities and strong auction results have combined to create a favorable market for Government bonds this morning in europe. Germany sold €3.34B in 30y Buxls in an auction covered 2.2 times, well above the 1.2 prior, whilst the UK sold £3.5B in 10y Gilts with healthy results. The German yield curve has fallen off its steepest levels, with 2s10s currently at 221bps, having tested a EUR lifetime high above 225bps in early trade. 2s10s in Gilts are right at record levels around 272bps, whilts Treasuries continues to exhibit a flattening bias with better buying the belly and longer parts of the curve. Yields on the 10y Note and the Bund have moved back below 3.60%, with 10y Gilts back below 3.80%. Three month Euribor fixed steady at 1.26%

- I n Energy: Norway Fin Min: Assessing oil funds active management


NOTES

- Verbal USD intervention by Far East monetary authorities buys the dollar some time; BIS seen selling Euros at 1.4330 level

- Chinese Central Bank sees US Treasury holdings as 'partnership' with US

- European Service PMIs are mixed, UK climbs above the 50 level

- Russia May services PMI hits 7 month high of 46.6. and the RUB tests the 30.50 level.

- BoJ: Mainly watching downside risks to economy and prices.

- Australia defies the wrath of the global recession as it GDP stays positive.

- Chinese Commerce Ministry say Foreign trade facing "unprecedented difficulties"

- Looking Ahead: Focus now turning to the US jobs data

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 29th: No expectations v -14.2% prior

- 7:30 (US) May Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No expectations v 47.0%

- 8:15(US) May ADP Employment Change: -525k expected v -491k prior

- 10:00 (US) ISM Non-manufacturing Composite: 45.0 expected v 43.7 prior

- 10:00 (US) Apr Factory Orders: 0.9% expected v -0.9% prior

- 10:00 (UK) BoE to buy back Gilts in 5-10y maturity bracket

- 10:00 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before house Budget committee in Washington

- 10:15 (US) Fed coupon purchase of Notes maturing between May 2016- 2019

- Key European Central Bank decisions on Thursday (BOE and ECB)

- European parliamentary elections on Thursday