European market Update: European PMI data rebounds from historic lows; Euro-Zone Industrial Orders YoY fall by record amount


ECONOMIC DATA

- (SZ) Swiss Mar Trade Balance: CHF120M v CHF720M prior; Exports M/M: -5.0% v -3.7% prior; Imports M/M: -4.6% v +2.1% prior

- (FR) French Apr Business Confidence: 71 v 69e; Production Outlook: -18 v -67e; Own-Company Production: -35 v -44e; Note: First rise in business confidence in 13 months

- (FR) French Apr Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 40.0 v 37.0e; PMI Services:46.2 v 43.7e

- (SP) Spain Mar Producer Prices M/M: -0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v -1.9%e

- (HU) Hungary Feb Retail Trade Y/Y:-3.2% v -3.6%e

- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves: $384.8B v $383.9B prior

- (GE) German Apr Advance PMI manufacturing: 35.0 v 33.0e; PMI Services: 43.5 v 42.4e

- (SW) Sweden Mar Unemployment rate: 8.3% v 8.3%e

- (TT) Taiwan Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: -26.0% v -30.2%e; Exports Y/Y: -24.3% v -28.0%e

- (EU) Feb Euro-Zone Current Account: -€8.1B v -€10.7Be; Current Account NSA : -€2.3B v -€18.2B prior

- (EU) Apr Advance Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing: 36.7 v 34.7e; PMI Services: 43.1 v 41.4e; PMI Composite: 40.5 v 38.9e

- (HK) Mar Hong Kong CPI Composite Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e

- (SZ) Apr Swiss ZEW Expectations Survey: -27.7 v -57.1 prior

- (EU ) Feb Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders M/M: -0.6% v -2.2%e; Y/Y: -34.5% v-34.8%e; YoY decline was the most since 1996 when records began


SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

- Equity markets opened to the downside following the sharp decline in US markets late in the NY afternoon. European markets had closed near their highs as the NYSE and NASDAQ rallied in the NY morning on Wednesday. These late Wednesday gains were erased on the open with some key tech and pharma equities in Switzerland and Holland providing disappointing Q1 numbers in the pre-market. Credit Suisse (CSGN.SZ) however massively outperformed in its Q1 numbers opening +5.5% in Zurich. UK retailer Debenhams' (DEB.UK) also provided strong H1 numbers pushing the UK retail sector into the green from the European open. Strong Euro zone PMI and Current Account numbers pushed markets to their then session highs with the UK moving briefly above the unchanged mark and into positive territory. Retailers still lead the way on the FTSE100 while Swiss exchanges outperformed on the back of strong volume in shares of Credit Suisse. Rumors of talks between Deutsche Bourse (DB1.GE) and NYSE Euronext (NYX) sparked further attention to consolidation in the European ECN and trade platform names, adding further pos weight to financial names. Equities accelerated their upward movements by 5:30 with the CAC40 joining the FTSE100 in positive territory.

- In specific stocks, Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] Reports Q1 profit CHF2B v CHF948Me, Rev CHF9.56B v CHF7.34Be, Q1 ROE 22.6% v -62%q/q, Q1 Tier 1 Ratio 14.1% v 13.3% q/q, Q1 Provision for credit losses CHF183 Mv CHF486M q/q. ||Debenhams [DEB.UK] Reports H1 Pretax £104.2M v £94.2Me, Rev £1.31B v £1.31Be, LFL sales -3.6% y/y, gross margin for 26 weeks up 10bps y/y. || ABB Group [ABBN.SZ] Reports Q1 Net profit $652M v $656Me, EBIT $862M v $1.35B y/y, Rev $7.2B v $7.3Be, Q1 Orders $9.15B v $10.94B y/y. || Novartis [NOVN.SZ] Reports Q1 Net income $1.96B v $1.87Be, EBIT $2.35B v $2.17Be, Rev $9.7B v $9.75Be, Q1 pharma sales $6.43B v $6.36Be. || SwedBank [SWEDA.SW] Reports Q1 Net loss SEK3.36B v profit SEK1.11Be, Op loss SEK3.36B v profit SEK1.29Be , Q1 loan losses SEK6.85B v SEK2.72Be, Tier 1 Capital Ratio 10.8% v 8.2% y/y, Taken additional SEK3.7B provisioning. || Fiat [F.IT] Reportedly, Fiat will sign letter of intent next week to purchase majority stake in Opel - Spiegel magazine. ||

- In speakers, the SNB's Roth commented that the Swiss economy had not yet bottomed out and forecasted 2009 GDP at -3.0%. He commented that 2010 GDP outlook was flat. He stated that the position of Swiss banks were 'not bad' || SNB's Hildebrand commented that the SNB to fight CHF appreciation while deflation risks persists . Raising interest rates would face political opposition.
Economic downturn taking hold in second half of year. The SNB would drain liquidity once threat of deflation subsided || UK's Darling commented that G7 discussions cover wide-range of topics.
Comment was in response whether currencies would be discussed at this weekend's G7 finance meeting in washington DC || Indonesian Central Bank forecasted 2010 GDP growth above 5% || Russia's Central Bank cuts its key interest rate by 50bps to 12.50%; it also raised bank reserves requirements by 50bps, effective May 1st. || German institutes reiterated the view that the German economy would not stabilize before mid-2010 (it revised its GDP estimates yesterday). It saw the risk of a deflationary spiral if the financial crisis deepened. It advised against any additional economic stimulus for Germany. It did note that it saw a chance that rapid pace of decline in German economy could end soon

- In currencies, the USD price action was mixed in the session. The EUR/USD entering the NY morning just off its best level and retesting the 1.3070 post Fed Quantitative easing pivot point. The overall April flash PMIs for Europe came in better than initially feared. The GBP rebounded after Wednesday post budget sell-off to move towards the 1.46 neighborhood. The JPY was a bit softer in the session. Dealers noted that toshin issue by Nomura. The issue was mostly earmarked for emerging markets (BRL, ZAR, AUD, TRY).

- In fixed income, the long end of the UK yield has borne the brunt of yesterday's UK Budget and selling has pushed the yield on the 10y Gilt above 3.50% for the first time in a month. With short dated issuance set to be comparatively light, buying has persisted in the short end of the yield curve, leading to significant steepening. 2s10s in Gilts is flirting with 220bps at the time of writing, with the record 237bps posted on 3rd March in full view. The pressure on long dated Gilts has spilled over into Bunds and Treasuries. The 10y Note ominously touched a month high in terms of yield at 2.974% in European hours, ahead of an eventful NY session, with an $8B TIPS auction, 2, 5 and 7y note announcements and NY Fed coupon purchases all on the horizon || A host of major European names announced plans to tap corporate debt markets, with HSBC notably planning a 5y euro denominated benchmark offering, Rolls Royce is looking to sell a Sterling 10y, and other offerings from Peugeot, Accor and Portugal Telecom in the works. € and Usd swap spreads have narrowed a touch after encouraging earnings from Credit Suisse, whilst 3M Euribor inched slightly higher to 1.406%.

- In energy: Iraqi Oil Ministry will ask international oil companies to submit bids for developing eight oil and gas fields at the end of June and expected to sign agreements with international companies in July. Contracts would need the approval of the Iraqi cabinet first.

- Credit Crisis: Ecuador's President Correa stated that the proposal to repurchase around $3.2B in Global 2012 and 2030 bonds at a 70% discount could be well-received by debt holders. The country has set aside funds for debt buyback. Ecuador would continue to honor its 2015 global bonds.
Government goal was to buy back all defaulted debt and would only offer buyback and no other mechanisms to restructure defaulted debt. He commented that 30 cents on the dollar was "fair" price to pay for defaulted debt.


NOTES

- Euro Zone April PMI's reported throughout the session. Overall the data was better than expectations. Dealers noted that a lot of emphasis was being placed to see whether the PMI series showed signs of stabilization and improvement.

- Mixed earning results on the financial front. Credit Suisse shows Q1 profit; Japan's Mizuho guides wider FY loss

- Looking Ahead: Key Earnings day. Some of the notable names include: ABC, AN, AVT, BG, COP, DHR, EMC, FITB, GR, HSY, LCC, LL, MAR, PM, PNC, POT, RCL, RS, RTN, STI, SVU, TMO and UPS.

- 8:30 (CA) Feb Canada Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% expected versus 1.9% prior; Y/Y: 0.2% expected versus 1.3% prior

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 640K expected versus 610K prior; Continuing Claims: 6.120M expected versus 6.022M prior

- 9:00 (BE) Apr Belgium Business Confidence: No estimate versus -28.6 prior

- 9:00 (US) Feb RPX Composite 28 day Index: No estimate

- 9:30 (BR) Mar Brazil Total Outstanding loans: No estimate versus $1.23B prior; Private Lending: No estimate versus $770M prior

- 10:00 (US) Mar Existing Home Sales: 4.65M expected versus 4.72M prior

- 10:00 (US) Fed's Braunstein testifies before House Finance Committee

- 10:15 (US) Fed's May 2012 to Aug 2013 coupon purchase

- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Monetary Policy report

- 11:00 (US) 2, 5 and 7 Y Note Announcement, $99B package expected

- 11:45 (US) Fed's Stern speaks in Washington

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $8B in 5y TIPS