European Market Update: Moody's soothes fears over eastern Europe for now; European equities shrug off risk aversion following China trade data


ECONOMIC DATA

- (CH) China Feb M2 Money Supply Y/Y: % v 19.2%e

- (GE) German Jan Producer Prices M/M: -1.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 3.4%e

- (CZ) Czech Q4 Final GDP Y/Y: 0.7% v 1.0% prior

- (HU) Hungarian Q4 Final GDP Y/Y: -2.3% v -2.0%e

- (HU) Hungarian Feb Consumer Prices M/M: 1.0% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.8%e

- (DE) Danish Jan Current Account: Deficit DKK2.7B v Surplus DKK1.4Be; Trade Balance X Ship: DKK2.6B v DKK1.3Be

- (SW) Swedish Feb AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 4.6%e

- (UK) Jan Visible Trade Balance: -£7.4B v -£7.5Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£5.7B v -£4.4Be; Total Trade balance: -£3.6B v -£3.7Be


SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

- In equities, Lufthansa [LHA.GE] reported FY08 Net profit €599M below expectations of €712Me. Operating profit was €1.35B, inline with its guidance issued back on Feb 3rd. Revenues came in at €24.9B, slightly better than forecasts of €24.67B. The airline expects FY09 operating profit to be "distinctly positive" but considerable lower than 2008 levels and revenues to increase thanks to acquisitions. It forecasted revenues and profit increasing in 2010 if economy recovers as expected in Q3 of 2009 || Aer Lingus [AERL.UK] Reported FY08 Operating loss of €17.6M worse than the loss of €4.9M expected citing falling consumer sentiment, a restructuring and higher fuel prices for the result. Revenues were €1.36B slightly better than €1.36B forecasts.
|| Party Gaming [PRTY.UK] Reported its FY08 EBITDA $144.2M just above estimates of $141.4M. Revenues were $472.9M in line with estimates of $473M. The firm stated that it had made “good progress” in the first few weeks of 2009, even in a “highly competitive” market to the beginning of the year. || Axel Springer [SPR.GE] Reported that its FY08 Sales were up 5.8% y/y but noted a difficult advertising market in 2009 and would not be able to match its prior year results. || UBS [UBSN.SZ] Adjusted its FY08 net profit lower by CHF1.19B due to US Department of Justice settlement. It now would have a net loss of CHF20.9B for 2008 after the DOJ adjustment || JC Decaux [DEC.FR] reported its FY08 Net at €108.1M, below the expected €192M and Op profit at €236.4M, also below expectations at €309.7M. Firm will not pay FY08 dividend and stated that it expected a decline in FY09 underlying revenue with Q1 Rev falling 10% y/y. Shares have traded sharply lower following this guidance. || ArcelorMittal [MT.NV] said it does not plan to raise additional capital. || Hannover Re [HNR1.GE] Reported Q4 Net €15.8M better than the lossof €3.1M expected. The gross premiums came in at €2.02B above the €1.91B forecasts. The company reaffirmed FY09 ROE in excess of 15%. CEO Zeller commented that the 2008 loss was due entirely to investment-side problems, while underwriting business was satisfactory.

- In speakers, China's PBoC commented that companies are less worried about economic weakness in Q2 and that the entrepreneur sentiment was recovering. the PBoC bank lending index had risen sharply || Moody's commented that Russia was 'not yet on brink' of any ratings cut. Moody's stated that Russia had the ability to meet up to 18 months of its debt obligations. It did note that Russia was 'no longer in free fall' and that the 'dirty float' of its currency moves in the right direction. || Polish Ministe stated the it expected around PLN17B from EU in 2009 and would accelerate EU fund usage for investments

- In currencies, the USD and JPY exhibited some strength in the aftermath of the 'dismal' Chinese trade number and its components. Chinese exports plunged by a record last month helping to revive demand for risk aversion plays. The Sharply weaker trade data out of China have put commodity currencies on the defensive as AUD, CAD and NZD moved lower in the session. The USD retraced from its best levels after Moody's commented that Russia was 'not yet on brink' of ratings cut and the country had the ability to pay its exiting debt obligations for a period of up to 18 months helped to offset the initial impact o the China trade numbers. G20 FinMins meet this weekend but no major action expected on the currency front.

- In fixed income, the Bank of England's historic reverse gilt auction, funded with printed money, is underway, with competitive offers to due by 10:45pm GMT. The Yield on the benchmark 10y Gilt is down 2.5bps at 3.09%. German government bonds have been on a weaker footing with both supply and stronger equities to contend with. In a strong auction , the Bundesbank sold €6.3B in a new 1.25% 2y Schatz. US Treasuries have regained some ground lost yesterday, with a steeper yield curve and the yield on the 10y Note back below the 3.00% level

- In energy, an OPEC delegate commented that there was no need to hurry into new round of supply cuts if market keeps strengthening on existing curbs. Apr NYMEX crude at $45.40/barrel and little changed ahead of the NY morning. OPEC meets on March 15th to discuss possible action necessary to stabilize the oil markets || South Africa Eskom's Demers: Concerned about future supplies of coal in country. It would assess coal reserves over the next 18 to 22 months in conjunction with S. African government and would incorporate neighboring countries (last reserves assessment made back in 1987). Eskom expected coal consumption to increase up by 40% and its own consumption rising by 55% between 2008 and 2018 || Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] Reported FY08 Op Profit of £300M compared to forecasts of £312M. Revenues were £692M below consensus of £730M. For 2009, the Group is focused on progressing Phase 1 of the Jubilee project in Ghana, fast tracking the commercialization of Ugandan reserves and executing selective high-impact exploration and appraisal campaigns || Cairn Energy [CNE.UK] reportedly to issue up to 6.5M shares (about 5% of shares outstanding). Stated that it is prudent to strengthen equity capital base at current conditions.

- In credit crisis news, Japan to start purchasing stocks from banks portfolio's on Thursday, Mar 12th. Japan would start buying shares from the investment portfolios of the nation's banks from tomorrow in an effort to strengthen their balance sheets and encourage lending. The Bank's Shareholding Purchase Corp (Gov't controlled entity) will conduct the purchases of equities.


NOTES

- Dealers noting that data out of emerging countries over the last 24 hours were not spectacular. The China Feb trade balance and components were 'an eye opener' as the surplus shrunk to just under $5B compared to $28B expected. On Tuesday, Brazil Q4 GDP contracted more than forecasts at -3.6%. Also notable was Japan Jan Machine orders which fell for the fourth consecutive month.

- After Tuesday's equity euphoria, European dealers noting comments from IMF in which slow action of banks in advanced economies could 'jeopardize' expected economic recovery in 2010

- European equities managed to shrug off the initial wave of risk aversion set off by the Chinese trade data. Moody's comments on Russia sovereign rating helped session sentiment and European auto sector firm on potential merger-related rumors.

- Looking Ahead:

- 6:30 (SZ) Switzerland to sell 2.5% Notes due 2036

- 7:00 (GE) German Jan Factory Orders M/M: -2.0% expected v -6.9% prior; Y/Y: -28.3% expected v -25.1% prior

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage applications w/e March 6th: No expectations v 12.6% prior

- 8:00 (BZ) Brazil Feb IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.55% expected v 0.48% prior; Y/Y: 5.90% expected v 5.84% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Jan New Housing Price Index: -0.2% expected v -0.1% prior

- 9:00 (IT) Italy holds financial stability committee meeting

- 10:00 (US) Treasury's Kashkari testifies on TARP oversight

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $18B 2.75% 10 Notes in re-opening

- 14:00 (US) Monthly Budget Statement: -$205B expected versus -$175B prior

- (UK) Bank of England to conduct reverse Gilt auction, purchasing £2B in 2014 to 2018 Gilts