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European Market Update

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Risk appetite regains composure aided by upward GDP revisions

Tue, Sep 22 2009, 10:17 GMT
by Trade The News Staff

TradeTheNews.com

European Market Update: Risk appetite regains composure aided by upward GDP revisions; USD hits fresh 2009 lows against Euro and CHF pairs ahead of G20 summit

ECONOMIC DATA

- (SZ) Swiss SECO releases Sept Economic Forecasts; Raises GDP outlook for 2009, 2010 period

- (FI) Finland Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 8.3%e

- (SZ) Swiss Aug Trade Balance (CHF): 1.8B v 2.2B prior

- (SA) South Africa Aug CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.4%e

- (DE) Danish Consumer Confidence Indicator: -1.1 v -2.0e

- (TA) Taiwan Aug Unemployment Rate: 6.1% v 6.0%e

- (IT) Italian Q2 Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.7%e

- (HK) Hong Kong Aug CPI - Composite Index Y/Y: -1.6% v -0.5%e

- (HK) Hong Kong Q2 Balance of Payments: $143.1B v $68.9B prior, Current Account: $46.1B v $43.0B prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

- In equities news overnight: European markets look set to recover their losses from yesterday's session. Markets have trended broadly higher following a positive open that followed a mixed Asian session. With Japanese markets closed for public holiday again, Asian trading remained thin. Comments out of the Asian Development Bank, raising its 2009 GDP targets for China and India provided equities some running room ex-China. Chinese markets for the third straight session traded lower, closing down more than 2%. European sector performance was mixed, with all major sectors trading in the green. Oil and gas names led the Eurostoxx50, basic resource and mining names on the FTSE100 and mixed Industrials led the way on the DAX. Volume levels have remained light through the European morning.

-In individual equities: Cadbury [CBRY.UK] CEO: Possible Kraft merger makes "some strategic sense" - WSJ. Says company investors say "in absence of higher value, stay focused." || WPP Group [WPP.UK] CEO: Group is continuing to look for cost cutting options in the short term period -FT. || ITV [ITV.UK] ITV network license no longer sustainable by 2012 - OFCOM. Says the Channel 3 regional network licenses could be in deficit to the tune of £38-£64 million by 2012. Ofcom's response says that new funding will be required if regional news on Channel 3 is to be maintained. || Imperial Tobacco [IMT.UK] Overall performance and financial position is in line with management's expectations. Trading trends outlined in the Interim Management Statement on 23 July 2009 have continued. The Altadis integration is progressing well and is on track to deliver the expected synergies. || JD Sports [JD.UK] Reports H1 Net £7M v £6M y/y, Rev £324M v £289.9M y/y; 6-week LFL sales +0.8%. || Air France [AF.FR] Trimming long haul capacity 1.8%; overall capacity to decline 2% over winter season. Reducing medium haul capacity 2.9% y/y. || Sanofi-Aventins [SAN.FR] Awarded new order for swine (H1N1) flu vaccine from the US Govt. New order for approx 27M doses; bringing total to approx 75M. || Accor [AC.FR] Announces sale of 158 F1 hotel properties for €272M. Operation to reduce net debts by €187M in FY09. Operation will add €130M to cash reserves, have €5M net positive impact. || Heidelbergcement [HEI.GE] Determines capital measures; Sets offer price at €37/shr to rase €2.25B (41% of market cap). Reminder: On Sept 14 -Offering 62.5M in new common shares (50% of share outstanding). Action to be taken as part of broad refinancing program. Shares will be offered on 2 for 1 basis. || Deutsche Wohnen [DWNI.GE] To issue 55.4M new shares (2.1x shares outstanding) at €4.50/share. Shareholders will be able to acquire 21 shares for each 10 shares held. To use some of the proceeds to reduce the liabilities of the Deutsche Wohnen Group. || ABB Group [ABBN.SZ] Chairman: Demand is still subdued, confident current cost savings program will be sufficient. Current cost savings targets are put at $2B. Have seen positive effects from stimulus programs in China, still awaiting new orders from US. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Weber commented that the recent Euro price action was not out of line in respect to the with Euro-zone data versus other regions. The central banker then reiterated the standard ECB line on rates and growth.

Weber again noted that the 1.0% interest rates were currently at an appropriate level and that it was too early to exit "extremely loose" monetary policy. He did note that once the economy recovered, the ECB has an obligation to decisively counter long-term inflation risks and liquidity build-up. ||Polish Central Banker Skrzypek commented that there was a serious risk that the country's Debt-to-GDP ratio could exceed 55%. He noted that the Polish GDP needed stimulation || Polish Central Banks Noga commented that he saw Poland's Q3 GDP registering a positive reading and Q4 GDP seen around +1%. Noga noted that interest rate increases could be possible around the summer of 2010. He forecasted CPI moving back towards the 2.5% target by mid-2010 period but conceded it might take longer than prior estimates. He noted that further rate cuts in 2009 are unlikely || IMF commented that the Russian Ruble currency was fairly valued based on current level of oil prices. The IMF saw a 'fairly rapid economic recovery in H2 and reiterated that Russia's 2010 GDP was seen at up 1.5% || Moody's noted that there were some stabilization in Latvia and Hungary (and Iceland) but the situation was far from recovery || Italy raised its 2009 GDP forecast to -4.8% from -5.2% prior; it also amended its 2010 GDP to +0.7% from +0.5% prior || Swiss Gov't raised its GDP view for both 2009 and 2010 period. SECO now sees 2009 GDP -1.7% v -2.7% prior; 2010 GDP +0.4% v -0.4% prior view in June. The Swiss Gov't maintained its 2009 Unemployment view at 3.8% and improved its 2010 Unemployment seen at 5.2% v 5.5% prior || Chinese Min reiterated the official Gov't view that industries were at critical phase of recovery and that it was too early to remove stimulus

- In Currencies: The USD against entered the European morning on wobbly legs and under renewed pressure following the comments from the Canadian PM and Russian Deputy PM on Monday. The USD still the favored carry trade funding currency The Asian Development Bank raising its GDP for both China and India provided the backdrop of improved risk appetite during the session. The G20 meeting set for Sept 24th/25th also gained in significance as the issue of imbalances could provide the way for more bearish USD momentum. ECB's Weber provided a rare FX observation when he commented that recent currency market behavior was not out of line with Euro-zone economic data compared to other regions. The EUR/USD tested above the 1.4800 level for its best level in almost 12 months. USD/CHF tested 1.0230 for 14 months lows (July 2008 levels).

- The JPY currency was firmer for most of the session as dealers continue to try to figure out where Japan's Fin Min Fujii (and the new Japanese Gov't) stands on FX policy

- In Fixed Income: Government bonds are weaker this morning in Europe as equities and currencies enjoy a risk revival.
Bunds have suffered under the weight of supply, with the Netherlands selling €2B in a variety of DSL's and Italy selling €2B in a reopening of the 2025 BTP. And the Bundesbank set a 2.5% coupon on the new 5y Bobl, of which up to €7B is expected to be auctioned off tomorrow. Ahead of the Treasury's $43B 2y Note auction, the existing 2y Note hit an overnight high yield above 1%, with the new notes trading about 5bps cheap in the when issued market. The 10-year note tested 3.50% and the Long Bond briefly reached 4.26%. In corporates, Anlgo American launched a €750M 4y , with pricing indicated at 180bps over swaps, whilst KPN has come to market with a €700M 15y as part of a refinancing operation.
Finally, Aussie insurance name QBE is planning a 6y GBP offering, with price talk at 330bps over Gilts.

- In Energy: Saudi's ARAMCO CEO stated that he saw little chance of pumping oil from fields that were idled next year because the recovery in global demand had not started . he did not see a major shift in demand unless the economic recovery accelerates. Saudi Arabia had idled about 4M bpd (33% of total production capacity). || Iranian nuclear head stated that Iran had created new generation of centrifuges ||

- In the papers: FT opinion piece noting that "G7 should deal with the dollar" as the article noted that a dollar collapse would have grave consequences for the world. According to the article coordinated intervention has worked in the past in currency markets and should be considered again for the dollar by the G-7 nations. The opinion piece noted that officials at the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ have warned about developments in the currency markets.

NOTES

- Asian Development Bank (ADB): Raises 2009 China growth est to 8.2% from 7%; Raises India 2009 growth est to 6% from 5%

- Swiss government has raised its GDP forecasts

- Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC has reduced its stake in Citigroup to below 5% from 9%

- ECB's Weber: currency market behavior not out of line with Euro-zone economic data

- Expectations rising that G20 will call for gains in other currencies to help reduce global trade imbalances

- USD hits fresh 2009 lows against Euro and Swiss franc pairs

Looking Ahead

- 7:45 (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales

- 8:00 (PD) Poland Aug Core Inflation M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior, Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.9% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Jul Retail Sales M/M: 0.7%e v 1.0% prior, Less Autos: 0.1%e v 1.0% prior

- (SA) South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) Rate decisions: No change expected, current Base Rate is 7.0%

- 8:55 (US) Redbook weekly retail sales

- 10:00 (US) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 16e v 14 prior

- 10:00 (US) July House Price Index: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior

- 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell 2.5B in 5-year FRN and 2.0B in 20-year bonds; to sell 30-year Inflation-linked

- 13:00 (US) Treasury's $43B 2 year note auction

- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Aug Unemployment rate: 6.0% expected versus 6.1% prior

- 16:30 (US) API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

- 17:00 (US) Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence: No estimate versus -49 prior

Published on  Tue, Sep 22 2009, 10:21 GMT