• Home ::
• Fundamental ::
• Analysis Reports ::
• European Market Update

European Market Update

IMF hints are negative global growth for 2009

Tue, Mar 10 2009, 12:17 GMT
by Trade The News Staff

TradeTheNews.com  |  View company's profile

Vote:

974200e5-c889-40d7-b040-bd10ac3da41b

0

0

• Send
• Print
• Add To
• Rss

European Market Update: Citi says having best quarter since 2007; USD weighed down by pending supply glut; IMF hints are negative global growth for 2009

ECONOMIC DATA

- (CH) China Feb Vehicle sales 827K (+25% y/y), first advance in four months

- (GE) German Feb Final CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e

- (GE) German Feb Final CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e

- (GE) German Jan Trade Balance: €8.5B v €9.5Be; Current Account:€4.2B v €9.2Be

- (GE) German Jan Imports M/M: -0.8% v -3.5%e; Exports M/M: -4.4% v -4.0%e

- (FR) French Jan Industrial Production M/M: -3.1% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -13.8% v -11.9%e

- (FR) French Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: -4.1% v -1.3%e; Y/Y: -16.5% v -15.6%e

- (FR) French Jan Trade Balance: -€4.5B v -€3.0Be; Central Govt Balance: -€8.1B v -€56.5B prior

- (DE) Danish Feb CPI M/M: 1.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.2%e

- (SW) Swedish Jan Industrial Production M/M: -2.5% v -2.0%e; Y/Y: -22.9% v -19.0%e

- (IT) Italian Jan PPI M/M: -0.8% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -0.4%e

- (NO) Norwegian Feb CPI M/M; 0.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.1%e

- (NO) Norwegian Feb CPI Underlying M/M;1.1 % v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.5%e

- (NO) Norwegian Producer Prices incl Oil M/M: -2.3% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.2% v 3.9% prior

- (UK) Jan Industrial Production M/M: -2.6% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: -11.4% v -9.9%e

- (UK) Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: -2.9% v -1.4%e; Y/Y: -12.8% v -11.7%e

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

- In equities, European Aeronautic Defense & Space Co [EAD.FR] reported FY08 net profit of €1.57B, better than the €1.23B consensus expectations. EBIT was €2.8B above €2.18B consensus. Revenues were in line with forecasts at €43.3B versus €41.37B estimates. EADS reported a Q4 net profit of €490M, beating consensus of a loss of €160M. It expects FY09 revenues to be roughly in line with FY08 level but sees its EBIT (ex items) falling in 2009, but says it will remain "significantly positive."
Airbus is expected to receive 300-400 gross orders this year and its order book stands at €400B, up 18% y/y. The firm did note that the order book was being challenged by market deterioration. The CFO commented that deliveries of Airbus commercial 300 series aircraft during 2009 could be below those of 2008. the firm has backlog of orders for 2009 and 2010. || E.On [EOAN.GE] reported a FY08 Adj Net of €5.6B above the €5.17B forecasts. Revenues came in at €86.75B better than estimates of €79.72B. The company noted that the economic crisis would take a toll on its business as it will likely lead to lower power and gas demand. The company plans to cut spending by €6B and noted it would allocate €10B per year form 2009-2011, in which 1/3 of spending to be used to modernization of its facilities. || Yesterday the FT reported that Barclays [BARC.UK] said its financial records would be subjected to intense Treasury examination if it decided to enter the APS. Additionally, Barclays Capital has agreed to acquire the Bear Wagner Specialists LLC unit currently held by JPMorgan Chase. || HSBC [HSBA.UK] held a press conference to discuss its big capital raise. A spokesperson for the bank said January was a good trading month and that the bank would raise HK lending to HK$4B. Furthermore, it stated that the rights issue was fully underwritten and that the bank remained well capitalized. HSBC reiterated that it was not seeking government support and that the cap raise will bring tier 1 cap to 10%. The bank plans to being dividend payments in 2010. || Weir Group [WEIR.UK] reported FY08 Op profit at £185M compared to the £181.4M expected, with revenues at £1.35B, ahead of the £1.31B expected. Weir stated that the firm's order book is significantly stronger than year-ago levels but net debt increased to £239.9M is well above last year. || Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] said it does not intend to merge with Postbank, saying that the two entities will maintain their own strategies. || Antofagasta [ANTO.UK] reported a FY08 net of $1.71B, above forecasts for $1.03B. Revenues were $3.37B, below consensus for $3.5B. The company said would pay a final dividend of $0.536/share. It sees a sharp deterioration in the global economic environment, which is likely to continue well into 2009. For 2009, copper and molybdenum production were expected to be 433,000 tons and 8,100 tons, respectively. || Sodexho [SW.FR] acquired India's Radhakrishna Hospitality Services Group; terms were not disclosed. The parties are expected to close the transaction before the summer of 2009. || Roche's [ROG.SZ] CEO Schwann stated that the firm had continued to perform strongly in first two months of 2009 . Its operating profit was better than management's expectations and the CEO remains confident regarding the full-year outlook

- In speakers, the ECB's Bini Smaghi said that if the situation worsens, the ECB is ready to cut rates further, "even to zero." He noted that cutting interest rates to zero would be appropriate if the economy was threatened by deflation. || The IMF's Strauss Kahn said global GDP growth would slow below zero in 2009, making the global outlook "the worst in our lifetime." The IMF said that the world was in a "great recession." || The Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned US naval activities, noting that the widely reported incident occurred when a US ship violated international law. China called on the US to halt illegal activities. || The ECB's Weber said the German economy would be hit harder and longer than previously expected by the global market crisis. Financial turbulence is still providing downside risks to Germany's growth outlook. Falling demand has impacted the economy and Weber expects to see a few months of negative inflation this year (which he said should not to be confused with deflation). || Polish Central Banker Czekaj commented that the economic situation in coming months may not back view for additional interest rate cuts. || German Fin Min Steinbrueck reiterated that he sees no advantage in reducing VAT rates. || The German Central Bank (the Bundesbank) pledged to create a financial stability division, effective May 1. || A senior Japanese MoF official commented that currency would not likely to be a major topic at upcoming Finance Ministers' G20 summit this weekend (ahead of the formal April 2nd G20 meeting). G20 ministers to take every action to confront crisis and help economies.

- In currencies, the USD was softer across the boards in the session as a firmer equity markets prompted some unwinding of long USD positions. Dealers attributed the price action to position squaring rather than fresh fundamentals but the supply of pending US Government debt auctions this week seen as a factor in the sentiment. The EUR/USD tested back above the 1.2730 area but remains below its post US payroll employment highs of 1.2770. Comments from ECB Bini Smaghi that the ECB could lower interest rates to zero if warranted helped to cap the Euro currency upside momentum in the session. The JPY was initially firmer ahead of the European morning as dealers took note of comments from the Singapore Sovereign wealth fund GIC, who commented that the JPY and CNY currencies were 'safe'. USD/JPY moved towards the 98.25 level after opening in Asia at 99.00 level. || Citigroup analyst commented on CAD currency noting that USD/CAD could moved towards 1.24 level and suggested that CAD should not be selling off (CAD hit its lowest level since Q4 2004 on Monday against the USD at 1.3070 area).

- Fixed income: On the supply front the Netherlands sold €2.B in 2012 DSL's whilst results of Austrian 5y and UK 10y auctions are imminent. US Treasuries are weaker across the curve ahead of todays 3y note offering, with T Note futures down 12 ticks at 121-08 at the time of writing. The Bank of England announced it would issue a new $2.0B USD denominated, 3 year bond, with pricing indicated at 40bs over swaps. The bond replaces a previous EUR denominated program, with proceeds to be used to supplement the Bank's own foreign exchange reserves as opposed to UK national reserves.

- In Energy, Qatari Oil Min Al-Attiyah stated that OPEC needs 100% quota compliance before making additional supply cuts. || Salamander [SMDR.UK] To sign production sharing contract for block 31 Vietnam with PetroVietnam.

- In credit crisis news, a Singapore wealth fund GIC official commented that gold, sovereign bonds, JPY and CNY were all "safe bets" while corporate bonds look more attractive than equities. || An Irish republican dissident group reportedly claimed responsibility on Sunday for shooting dead 2 UK soldiers at an army base. This is the first killing of British soldiers in Northern Ireland in 12 years. || PBoC Vice Gov Su Ning told the Shanghai Securities News that the growth of China's FX reserves slowed in January.

NOTES

- There is more and more talk among government officials and central bankers that any decline in prices would be short lived. China insisted it is not experiencing deflation despite the drop in inflation. China Feb steel output and power consumption up but too early to conclude industry recovering. China Feb Vehicle saw their first advance in four months

- Looking Ahead:

- 6:30 (IR) ECB's Hurley speaks at Irish Parliament

- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Q4 GDP (IBGE) Q/Q: % v -2.3%e; Y/Y: % v 1.9%e; GDP Accumulated: % v 5.2%e

- 8:30 (US) Fed's Bernanke speaks in Washington

- 10:00 (US) Jan Wholesale Inventories: -1.0% expected v -1.4% prior

- 10:00 (SU) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 43.0 expected v 44.6 prior

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $34 in 3 Year Notes

Published on  Tue, Mar 10 2009, 12:19 GMT

Vote:

974200e5-c889-40d7-b040-bd10ac3da41b

0

0

• Send
• Print
• Add To
• Rss