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European Market Update

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Weak European PMI highlight growth outlook and corporate profit potential

Wed, Oct 1 2008, 13:14 GMT
by Trade The News Staff

TradeTheNews.com

ECONOMIC DATA

- (GE) Sept Retail Sales M/M: 3.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -3.0% v -2.6%e

- (SW) Sweden Sept Swedbank Sweden PMI Survey: 42.3 v 46.0e

- (SP) Spain Sept Manufacturing PMI: 38.3 v 42.4 prior (lowest on record)

- (SZ) Swiss Sept Manufacturing PMI: 47.8 v 51.0e

- (IT) Sept PMI Manufacturing: 44.4 v 46.0e (lowest since Oct 2001)

- (FR) Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: 43.0 v 43.6e

- (GE) Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: 47.4 v 48.1e

- (EU) Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: 45.0 v 45.3e

- (IT) Aug Trade Balance Non-EU: -€2.1B v -€1.80Be

- (UK) Sept PMI Manufacturing: 41. 0 v 45.0e (lowest since 1992)

- (UK) July Index of Services Q/Q: 0. 0% v 0.1%e

- (EU) Aug Eurozone Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.3%

- (UK) Sold GBP2.25B 4.25% 2049 Gilts

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

- In equities news overnight: Roche [ROG.SZ] Invested CHF215M into a German research & development facility. The new building will house laboratories and production facilities for the Roche Applied Science and Roche Professional Diagnostics business areas. || Lonmin [LMI.UK] Xstrata stated that it had no intention to make offer for company; citing the current financial market uncertainty. Xstrata added that the lack of clarity on future availability of credit was behind its decision. Xstrata added that they reserve the right to purchase Lonmin shares, subject to the requirements of the code and other London regulations. || Ciba [CIBN.SZ] Germany's BASF expected to finalize its buyout of CIBA transaction by Q1 2009 at the latest. BASF added that it expected that the transaction will make a positive contribution to its earnings per share in the second year after the acquisition. || Cadbury [CBRY.UK] CFO Ken Hanna will step down effective April 2009 to join Inchscape || Qiagen [QIA.GE] Acquired Biosystems business from Sweden's Biotage for $60M in cash and payments. The transaction is valued at approximately $53M in cash and performance milestone payments of up to approximately $7M over the next four years. || [KGP.UK] Agreed new €330M syndicated credit line in which the funding to facilitate company's organic and acquisition growth plans over the next 5 years. It Replaced the previous facility which was due to run until December 2009. || Thus Group [THUS.UK] Cable Wireless stated that itsoffer for company was unconditional. The Offer remains open until further notice and at least 14 days' notice will be given if C&W Holdco decides to close the Offer. || Domino's Pizza UK [DOM.UK] Reported 13 week Revenues in amount of £83.3M compared to £70.7M year ago. Its 39-week like-for-like sales growth was 10.5% and stated that store openings progressed well with 9 new openings during this period. || Spectris [SXS.UK: Acquired LDS Test & Measurement unit from SPX Corporation for $102M . Porsche [POR3.GE] Guided FY08 sales up 1.3% y/y at €7.46B compared to analyst estimates of €7.55Be. Company forecasted vehicle sales at 98.6K, +1.2% y/y. It noted that it was difficult to provide 2009 forecasts under the current environment. Ford [F] Ford Europe CEO stated that he expected the auto industry to feel the effects of the economic downturn in H2, but added that the unit remained profitable. The difficult environment would impact the premium automakers the most. He noted slowdown in some of the emerging markets. Sovay [SOLB. BE] CEO noted that its pharma division results are in line with expectations. He Believed the market remained in good condition, but cited some tight conditions in chemicals The company would see an impact to its Vinyls business in third quarter as a result of turnaround in Brazil || Daimler [DAI.GE] denied market speculation of a potential profit warning and added that it would provide comment on its outlook and markets with its Q3 release. It did note that the market had becoming more difficult since late July.

- Speakers: (EU) EuroGroup Juncker stated that the ECB should consider all of the elements at its monetary policy meetings as the economic growth showed a definite downward trend. He added that G7 cannot solve banking problems on its own; Notes that EU is ready to act on banks if. He reaffirmed G7 view that excessive FX volatility is undesirable. ECB remained confident in French banking system and reiterated that Europe does need a US style bailout as the European banking system is more robust than that in US. He stated that the US must utilize Treasury Sec Paulson bailout plan. || Polish Central Banker noted in a newspaper interview that he expected the economy to slow significantly adding that the Government's 2009 GDP forecast of 4.8% was 'optimistic'. The banker noted that the global financial crisis would likely have little or no impact on Poland. Lastly he stated that the central bank needs a more restrictive monetary policy ahead of its planned entry into the Euro. || WTO's Lamy: There is risk of recession || Russian Fin Min Kudrin noted that the Russian Government has yet to start any purchases of shares in order to support markets added that it may not need to do so. || Czech Central Bank Official Tuma noted that its banking system remained healthy and solvent. He added that th Central bank is able to defend the banking sector's stability. Central Bank is monitoring liquidity conditions. || France's Jouyet stated that the ECB would draw consequences of financial markets crisis on its interest rate policy and added that the leaders summit on October 15 will greatly impact crisis, regulation.

- In Currencies: Dealers were awaiting to see if the quarter-end appetite for USD would continued into October. Yesterday's sessions saw the EUR/USD encounter its largest one day decline since its January 1999 launch. Dealers were noting that early indications suggest some waning in the demand for dollars, citing the Bank of England USD repo operations in which the bid-to-cover fell back below the 1.0 level.

- In Energy: NYMEX Nov crude climbed over $2 per barrel in the session, fueled by hope that the US would approve the financial market bailout package.

- In Fixed Income: The yield curve for the US and Germany steepened as the European morning progressed. Dealers attributed to flow into the short-end on speculation that France and the UK could follow Ireland's to guarantee deposits. The Irish Fin Min was meeting with European counterparts over its pledge. || Belgian Debt Chief noted that the recent Fortis, Dexia rescue would have no funding impact as it foresees only EUR1B in funding for the remaining of 2008. It noted that November auctions would be the last for this calendar year. || The UK 2049 Gilt auction had a strong bid-to-cover of 2.1 times above the expected range of 1.6 to 1.7 times. || Commerzbank noted that credit is becoming more expensive as refi costs continue to climb. The company stated that a European credit crunch is a possibility

- In the papers: WSJ "Heard On The Street" column looks at the trillions of dollars in debt that needs to be refinanced by European banks. The article noted that some of Europe's largest banks face the problem of how to refinance debt that is coming due in the short and medium term and adding that the refinancing efforts could become even more challenging if the interbank market remains frozen. || The Irish Times noted that talks in Paris between the Taoiseach and French president Nicolas Sarkozy would be dominated by the global financial crisis, and, in particular, the Irish Government's bank guarantee. The article noted that French spokesman stated that Sarkozy "has followed and discussed" with Mr Cowen the Government's move. and that a similar guarantee could be offered by the French government, with measures announced at the end of the week

*** NOTES ***

- The start of October will determine if the recent stress experienced credit markets were structural or just quarter-end related. The central banks vow to continue with their generous liquidity provisions. The Russian Central Bank would begin making loans to rated banks with out collateral, and will help refinance foreign debts. The global growth environment showed its fragile structure as the Japanese Tankan and Capex data came in below expectations.
European Manufacturing PMIs were consistently below consensus as well. The Italian PMI Manufacturing registered its lowest since 2001 while the UK PMI data tested a 16 year low. Moody's Corporate credit outlook have deteriorated in recent weeks.

- October will get off to a fast start as the US Senate will vote on Tarp bailout package later today, the ECB monetary policy decision on Thursday and the US Nonfarm payroll data set for Friday.

- European stocks opened in positive territory but saw gains erode as softer European data weighed upon sentiment and comments from Daimler [DAI.GE] who noted tougher market conditions since mid summer. BHP was firmer after receiving Australian regulatory approval to proceed with its planned acquisition of Rio Tinto.

Looking ahead

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 26th: No estimate v -10.6% prior

- 07:30 (US) Sept Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No estimate v 11.7% prior

- 08:15 (US) Sept ADP Employment Change: expectation -50K v - 33K prior

- 10:00 (US) Sept ISM Manufacturing: Expectations 49.5 v 49.9 prior

- 10:00 (US) Aug Construction Spending M/M: expected at - 0.5% v -0.6% prior

Published on  Wed, Oct 1 2008, 13:17 GMT