http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-11-20.htmlWe finalize today our eurozone inflation forecasts for November. Next Friday, with the German data already available, we will refine our call, if needed. In November, the eurozone inflation rate will turn again positive. We confirm our estimate of +0.5% yoy (+0.4% yoy on the extobacco index), and see broadly balanced risks to this forecast. The flash estimate is due on November 30. The rise in the inflation rate will be entirely an energy story. We think energy prices will be up around 1.5%Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:26:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-11-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-11-16.htmlOn Monday, Eurostat will release the final estimate for eurozone October HICP. After the French data out today, we continue to see a low risk of a revision to the flash estimate (-0.1% yoy). On a monthly basis, HICP should be up 0.2/0.3% (the call is very close). The details will probably show that energy added 0.25pp to the headline rate – due to an unfavorable base effect – while core inflation remained at 1.2% yoy. In November, the eurozone inflation rate will turn again positive. For theMon, 16 Nov 2009 06:09:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-11-06.htmlCountry data so far available in October suggest a low risk of revision to the eurozone flash estimate (-0.1% yoy). The final release will be out on November 16: we have penciled in a 0.25pp boost to the headline rate coming from energy, while food inflation probably eased a bit further and core inflation was unchanged at 1.2% yoy. In November, the eurozone inflation rate will rise strongly and exit negative territory. Once again, energy will be the main driver, with the price of oil productsFri, 06 Nov 2009 12:34:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-11-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-10-30.htmlEurozone flash estimate for October came in at -0.1% yoy, in line with consensus but 0.1pp higher than our own forecast. After slightly higher-than-expected figures in Germany and Spain, we had warned about upside risks to our call. We still think that prices were up 0.2% mom. With no breakdown available, it’s not easy to say what components drove the moderate surprise vs. our call. Judging from the German and Italian data, it could have been a mix of energy and core inflation. What can beFri, 30 Oct 2009 11:59:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-10-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-10-23.htmlWe have refined our inflation forecasts for October. In the eurozone, we confirm our -0.2% yoy call on headline inflation, with broadly balanced risks. HICP ex tobacco should come in at -0.3% yoy. In both cases, prices should be up 0.2% mom. In the eurozone, the rise in the yoy inflation rate vs. September will be driven by the energy component. Even though energy prices probably fell on monthly basis, the steep decline in the price of oil products in October 2008 will push up the yoy rate. WeFri, 23 Oct 2009 11:47:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-10-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-10-16.htmlEurozone inflation in September was confirmed at -0.3% yoy, with the ex tobacco gauge at -0.5% yoy. On both indices, consumer prices were flat on a monthly basis. Core inflation held on a declining trend and moved down by 0.1pp to 1.2% yoy. Energy prices (-1.2% mom, -11% yoy) depressed the headline inflation rate by 0.1pp. Food inflation inched down to -1.3% yoy vs. -1.2%, with momentum (as measured by monthly seasonally adjusted data) starting to stabilize after almost one year of outrightFri, 16 Oct 2009 10:41:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-10-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-10-09.htmlToday, German HICP for September was revised down by 0.1pp to -0.5% yoy. We don’t expect this to trigger a downward revision to the eurozone flash estimate (reported at -0.3% yoy), unless there is a large downside surprise on the French number out on Tuesday. The final September HICP release for the eurozone is due on October 15. We think energy was the main driver of the decline in the yearly inflation rate vs. August, with food inflation also expected to inch down further. Core inflationFri, 09 Oct 2009 11:08:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-10-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-10-02.htmlThe eurozone flash estimate for September came in at -0.3% yoy, marginally below our -0.2% forecast. We suspect that the downward surprise was equally split between energy, food and core prices. The final figure is due on October 15. In October, the yearly inflation rate will probably inch up vs. September, but we see high chances that it will stay in negative territory. Our very preliminary estimate is for a -0.1/-0.2% yoy reading, with the price of oil products set to fall further after theFri, 02 Oct 2009 09:37:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-10-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-09-25.htmlToday we refine our inflation forecasts for September. In line with what we wrote last week, eurozone inflation should stabilize at -0.2% yoy, but this looks like a close call and we see downside risks to our projection. On a monthly basis, HICP should be up 0.1%. On the ex-tobacco index, the yearly rate should fall back to -0.4% vs. the previous -0.3%. The flash estimate is due on Wednesday. Due to the drop in the price of oil products, energy prices should decline by about 1% mom, with theFri, 25 Sep 2009 09:45:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-09-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-09-18.htmlIn the eurozone, September is shaping up as a month of broad stabilization in the inflation rate. For the time being, it seems like HICP will stay at -0.2% yoy, but we see some downside risks to this estimate. We will refine the call next week.  Based on the data so far available, this month energy prices should decline by about 1% mom, with the yoy rate set to fall back after having risen to -10.2% in August. However, due to the collapse in oil prices at end-2008, the yoy rate in energyFri, 18 Sep 2009 10:24:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-09-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-09-11.htmlThe downward revision to the German final HICP reading makes a revision to the eurozone August final estimate quite unlikely. Based on our forecast for France (the only major country that hasn’t yet published its figures), on Wednesday we expect eurozone consumer prices for August to be reported up 0.3% mom, with the yearly rate confirmed at -0.2%. HICP ex-tobacco should print at 107.86. Core prices – ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – were probably stable at 1.3%, with some downsideFri, 11 Sep 2009 11:22:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-09-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-09-04.htmlThe flash estimate for eurozone August inflation was reported at -0.2% yoy, in line with our forecast. Several countries still have to publish their HICP figures, most notably France, so it’s premature to provide an assessment of the balance of risk to the final estimate (to be released on September 16). Up to now, country figures have been marginally stronger than we had expected: if anything, risks of an upward revision to the euro area figure seem to prevail. Taking a first look at theFri, 04 Sep 2009 11:38:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-09-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-08-14.htmlToday, Eurostat revised down eurozone July inflation rate to -0.7% yoy (unrounded figure: -0.655%, flash estimate: -0.6%). On the ex-tobacco gauge, the yearly rate fell to -0.8%. In both cases, consumer prices dropped 0.7% mom. The deceleration in the yearly inflation rate was driven by energy (which subtracted 0.25pp from the overall rate) and food prices (-0.1pp). Core prices – ex food, energy alcohol and tobacco – slowed to 1.3% vs. 1.4%, helped by weak dynamics in clothing/shoes andFri, 14 Aug 2009 13:27:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-08-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-07-24.htmlWe have finalized our inflation forecasts for July. In the eurozone, consumer prices should slow to -0.6% yoy vs. the previous -0.1%. We see upside risks to our estimate. On the ex-tobacco gauge, the yearly rate should fall to -0.7% yoy vs. -0.2%. With a favorable base effect kicking in and the price of oil products down vs. June, energy will probably subtract about 0.2pp from the overall inflation rate. The ongoing easing in food inflation and a further slight weakening in core prices (helpedFri, 24 Jul 2009 11:14:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-07-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-07-17.htmlThe final estimate for eurozone June HICP confirmed the preliminary -0.1% yoy, in line with our and market expectations. However, core inflation (ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) surprised on the downside coming in at 1.4% vs. 1.5%. As we had anticipated, food inflation turned negative and subtracted almost 0.1pp to the headline rate, while energy inflation was roughly stable. Note that in June the HICP printed at a slightly lower level than we had assumed last week (108.48 vs. ourFri, 17 Jul 2009 09:16:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-07-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-07-10.htmlNext week, Eurostat will publish the final reading for euro zone June HICP. At this stage, with only the French data missing among the largest economies, risks of a revision to the preliminary -0.1% yoy appear to be low. Last week, we flagged downside risks to our July forecasts due to the beginning of a phase of correction in Brent prices. As the downward move in oil prices gathered further momentum (euro-denominated Brent is now down 13% from the June 29 level), these risks have now fullyFri, 10 Jul 2009 11:09:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-07-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-06-26.htmlCPI data out so far in three German states and the drop in Belgian inflation to -1.1% y-o-y (vs. the previous -0.4%) are consistent with our forecast that eurozone inflation in June will ease 0.1pp to -0.1% y-o-y. We therefore stick to our call, and see risks as broadly balanced. The flash estimate is due on Tuesday.  For June, in the eurozone we have penciled in a strong increase in the price of oil products, but a favorable base effect implies that energy prices probably were littleFri, 26 Jun 2009 10:22:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-06-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-06-19.htmlWe have finalized our eurozone inflation forecast for June. As we already anticipated last week, this month headline inflation should dip into negative territory at -0.1% y-o-y. With energy inflation expected to remain broadly stable – a favorable base effect will offset the strong monthly rise in the price of oil products – the deceleration in overall inflation should be driven by the food component. Core inflation will probably hold steady. In the last three months, in the eurozone theFri, 19 Jun 2009 11:53:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-06-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-06-12.htmlHICP data out today in France and Portugal help better assess the balance of risks on the final eurozone figure for May. With respect to last week, risks of an upward revision from the preliminary 0.0% have diminished. At this stage, we estimate that even a moderate upward revision to the Italian figure would not suffice to trigger a revision at the area-wide level. The final release of May HICP for both the eurozone and Italy is due on June 16. In the eurozone, we expect a deceleration inFri, 12 Jun 2009 11:23:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-06-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-06-05.htmlInformation available at country level is still not sufficient to assess the balance of risks to the eurozone’s May flash estimate released last week at 0.0%. Our gut feeling is that risks lean toward an upward revision – the final release is due on June 16. The near-term inflation picture remains unchanged. The prices of oil-products hold on a steady upward trajectory, and we confirm that June will show a strong m-o-m increase in energy prices, probably the largest one since last summer: ourFri, 05 Jun 2009 10:56:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-06-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-05-29.htmlToday’s HICP flash estimate for May came in at 0.0% y-o-y, marginally weaker than we had expected. A positive base effect on energy, a downward correction in core prices after the Easter-related volatility and a further slowdown in food inflation should explain the deceleration. Oil prices are making a remarkable come back and the price of all oil-related products is now rising significantly, particularly for gasoline. A strong m-o-m increase in energy prices is therefore in store for June,Fri, 29 May 2009 15:17:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-05-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-05-15.html* The final release of April HICP for the eurozone confirmed the preliminary 0.6% y-o-y. HICP ex tobacco printed at 108.04. On balance, the data brought more core inflation and less non-core pressures than we had thought. * The core rate picked up more than we had expected to 1.8% vs. a downwardly revised 1.4%, but this move reflects mostly technical factors related to the different timing of Easter with respect to last year: accordingly, the trend in core prices remains downwards. FoodFri, 15 May 2009 15:25:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-05-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-05-08.htmlThe inflation outlook for the eurozone is very similar to the one depicted in our last update on April 24. With still several national data due for release (France being the most important one), it’s still premature to assess the probability of revision of the April flash estimate (reported at 0.6% y-o-y). For the time being, we stick to the view that upside risks prevail. The week ending today has seen a significant increase in oil prices, about 8% in euro-denominated terms. This doesn’tFri, 08 May 2009 10:59:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-05-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-04-24.htmlIn the eurozone, the April flash estimate will be released next Thursday. We see the headline inflation rate staying at 0.6%, with risks tilted to the upside. Consumer prices should rise 0.4% on a monthly basis. We project HICP ex tobacco up 0.4% m-o-m to 108.08. In April, the price of motor fuels is up about 3% m-o-m and heating oil costs by approximately 5%, but large cuts in utility bills (particularly for natural gas) should offset most of this upward pressure: total energy prices shouldFri, 24 Apr 2009 10:37:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-04-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-04-17.htmlThe eurozone final March HICP reading published yesterday was confirmed at 0.6% y-o-y. HICP ex tobacco printed at 107.66, implying a 0.5% yearly rate. As expected, core, energy and food inflation all eased from February. For the time being, we stick to our view that eurozone inflation will move sideways in April, but due to recent oil price developments risks are shifting to the upside. This month we see several forces pushing in opposite directions and therefore broadly neutralizing eachFri, 17 Apr 2009 13:07:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-04-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-04-03.htmlThe March HICP flash estimate for the euro area came in slightly below expectations at 0.6% y-o-y (vs. 1.2% in February), marking the lowest level on record. We currently estimate March HICP ex tobacco at 107.70 (last week we projected 107.78). No details are yet available, but we think that the slowdown was pretty generalized across components. Energy prices probably subtracted about 0.3 pp from headline inflation, with a further easing in food inflation and slower core inflation explainingFri, 03 Apr 2009 10:50:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-04-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-03-27.htmlGerman states’ CPI data have come in on the soft side of expectations, but we think the figures remain overall consistent with the euro area forecasts we made last week. We still see headline inflation slowing to 0.7% in March vs. February’s 1.2% (the flash estimate is due on Tuesday), but now downside risks to our forecast seem to prevail. Energy, food, and core inflation should all ease this month. We see more potential for downside surprises on food prices (which seem to have been weak inFri, 27 Mar 2009 12:40:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-03-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-03-20.html-In the eurozone, the increase in headline inflation recorded in February (1.2% vs. the previous 1.1%) was only temporary. In March, the yearly growth rate of consumer prices will resume slowing, and we expect the decline to be sizeable. - We forecast 0.7% y-o-y, mostly driven by falling energy prices. With motor fuels and heating oil costs on a downward trend, we expect energy prices to drop by slightly more than 1% m-o-m. Helped by a favorable base effect, the yearly rate of growth of energyFri, 20 Mar 2009 11:49:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-03-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-03-13.html- As we pre-announced last week, we made some important changes to our inflation projections in the wake of a further substantial downward revision to the GDP outlook. Given that economic slack affects core prices with a lag (and having left largely unchanged the assumptions on non-core components), the bulk of the revision involves 2010, while the inflation path for 2009 doesn’t change much (the eurozone yearly average is still seen at 0.5%, though downside risks have increased). - With theFri, 13 Mar 2009 11:05:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-03-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-03-06.html- The Staff forecasts published yesterday by the ECB showed a very weak figure for 2010 inflation, now seen at only 1.0% (from 1.8% in the December projections). This change is very important because shows that the ECB has now fully acknowledged that mounting economic slack will push core inflation to unprecedented low levels next year. - We are in the process of revising further down our eurozone GDP figures for 2009 and 2010 to levels similar to the ones published yesterday by the ECB. ThisFri, 06 Mar 2009 13:17:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-03-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-02-27.htmlAs expected, eurozone inflation was confirmed at 1.1% in January (UniCredit and consensus 1.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined by 0.8%. Core inflation slowed to 1.6% from 1.8% (UniCredit: 1.7%, Consensus: 1.8%), while HICP ex tobacco matched our forecast at 106.82 (up 1.1% y-o-y). The data breakdown shows slightly stronger energy and weaker core than we had expected. Energy prices were flat m-o-m, with the y-o-y rate down to -5.3% from -3.7% and subtracting 0.15 pp from theFri, 27 Feb 2009 12:56:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-02-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-02-13.v02.html■ This week we made some downward revisions to our 2009 projections. In the eurozone, we see headline inflation averaging 0.5% (vs. 0.7% previously), and HICP ex tobacco at 0.4% (vs. 0.6%). French CPI ex tobacco will average 0.4% (vs. 0.6%), and Italy’s FOI ex tobacco 0.6% (vs. 0.7%). ■ The changes are due to a downward revision to the energy projections. Brent prices have undershot our forecasts, but equally important is the surprisingly muted pass-through from euro-denominated Brent ontoFri, 13 Feb 2009 15:45:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-02-13.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-02-13.html■ With January HICP figures already out in most of the euro area countries (France is the main notable exception), it seems like the eurozone flash estimate for January (reported at 1.1%) is at considerable risk of upward revision to 1.2%. The picture will become clearer after the French HICP figures due next Friday, for which we expect -0.3% m-o-m, +0.9% y-o-y. ■ At present, we would put the chance of an upward revision of the euro area January reading at just below 50%. Besides the alreadyFri, 13 Feb 2009 15:38:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-02-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-01-23.html■ We have finalized our inflation forecast for next week’s eurozone HICP flash estimate. There are no major changes from last week’s update: consumer prices should fall 0.7% m-o-m in January, with the yearly rate easing to 1.2% from 1.6%. A further drop in energy prices will probably drive most of the deceleration. HICP ex tobacco should be down 0.8% m-o-m to 106.92. ■ More specifically, we assume that energy prices will decline by about 0.5/1.0% m-o-m, pushing the yearly rate from -3.7% toFri, 23 Jan 2009 14:52:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2009-01-23.html