http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2012-01-17.htmlEurozone December inflation was revised down to 2.7% vs. the flash estimate of 2.8%. The core rate – ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – held at 1.6%. The slowdown in headline inflation from November was mainly driven by an energy base effect, which shaved 0.25pp off yearly CPI growth. The inflation slowdown is bound to continue in January, when we expect headline CPI to settle at 2.6% yoy. We see core and energy inflation weakening, while food inflation should record a technicalTue, 17 Jan 2012 16:46:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2012-01-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2012-01-10.htmlAfter having held at 3% for three consecutive months, eurozone inflation should start easing in December. Our forecast is 2.7% yoy, with risks tilted to the upside (less so on the HICP ex tobacco). The main driver of the slowdown should be a favorable base effect on energy. The flash estimate will be released on 4 January. In Italy, December CPI figures will see the effect of the increase in fuel taxes. In the eurozone, the downward trend in inflation should continue into 2012, and we stillTue, 10 Jan 2012 09:19:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2012-01-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-12-23.htmlAfter having held at 3% for three consecutive months, eurozone inflation should start easing in December. Our forecast is 2.7% yoy, with risks tilted to the upside (less so on the HICP ex tobacco). The main driver of the slowdown should be a favorable base effect on energy. The flash estimate will be released on 4 January. In Italy, December CPI figures will see the effect of the increase in fuel taxes. In the eurozone, the downward trend in inflation should continue into 2012, and we stillFri, 23 Dec 2011 14:23:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-12-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-12-05.htmlAccording to the flash estimate, eurozone inflation in November held steady at 3%, 0.1pp above our forecast. Although only limited information is available at this stage, it looks like the upside surprise could be explained mostly by noncore items. Due to technical reasons, clothing/shoes prices (as recorded by the HICP methodology) remain an important source of uncertainty. In the last two months, prices in the eurozone have been a bit stickier than expected, but the outlook remainsMon, 05 Dec 2011 09:23:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-12-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-11-18.htmlEurozone inflation was confirmed at 3.0% yoy in October, with the core rate (ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) stable at 1.6%. HICP ex tobacco inflation came in at 3.0%. Data details show a stronger-than-originally-expected increase in energy prices, and another upside surprise on clothing/shoes prices. The latter are particularly difficult to forecast with accuracy after the introduction, at the beginning of the year, of a new methodology for computing the price of seasonal items. ThisFri, 18 Nov 2011 15:20:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-11-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-11-07.htmlWe made no changes to our inflation forecasts. We see eurozone inflation easing only marginally in November, probably to 2.9% yoy. We confirm our view that April 2012 will see the first sub-2% reading. The FAO food price index, which leads food PPI and CPI, is down 9% from the February peak, and the downward trend is gathering momentum.  In the eurozone, food PPI is already moderating substantially, while food CPI has not yet been affected. We should prepare for a material softening ofMon, 07 Nov 2011 15:08:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-11-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-10-24.htmlThere are no relevant changes to our projections compared to last week. In the eurozone, our forecast for October headline inflation remains 2.9% yoy, with downside risks. On HICP ex-tobacco, we expect 2.8% yoy, with upside risks. This month, we see two main sources of uncertainty on our eurozone forecasts: 1) how clothing/shoes prices will behave after the September jump; 2) the degree of pass-through of the Italian VAT hike.Mon, 24 Oct 2011 07:54:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-10-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-10-18.html■ We expect eurozone headline inflation to accelerate moderately in August, to 2.6% vs. 2.5%. This is a close call, and we see risks skewed to the downside. The flash estimate will be published on Wednesday. ■ Clothing/shoes prices pose the largest risk to our forecast. After the steeper-than-expected drop recorded in July due to the new methodology for computing the price of seasonal items, there is large uncertainty on how this new methodology will affect clothing/shoes prices this month,Tue, 18 Oct 2011 10:09:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-10-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-08-26.html■ We expect eurozone headline inflation to accelerate moderately in August, to 2.6% vs. 2.5%. This is a close call, and we see risks skewed to the downside. The flash estimate will be published on Wednesday. ■ Clothing/shoes prices pose the largest risk to our forecast. After the steeper-than-expected drop recorded in July due to the new methodology for computing the price of seasonal items, there is large uncertainty on how this new methodology will affect clothing/shoes prices this month,Fri, 26 Aug 2011 14:10:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-08-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-07-29.htmlEurozone inflation in July slowed to 2.5% yoy vs. 2.7%. This is lower than expected, particularly after the strong German HICP reading. Last week, we warned that core inflation was set to fall back in July as the new methodology for computing the price of seasonal items could lead to a significantly larger drop in clothing/shoes prices than in July 2010. Although no numerical details are available, today’s steep decline in Italy’s HICP inflation (from 3.0% to 2.1%) should be largely due toFri, 29 Jul 2011 16:21:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-07-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-07-22.htmlWe confirm our forecast that eurozone inflation in July will slow by 0.1pp to 2.6% yoy. However, risks are tilted to the upside. The first upside risk is related to energy: weekly motor fuel prices have come in slightly stronger than our expectations. The second upside risk involves core prices: we have assumed that core inflation will fall back as the new methodology for computing the price of seasonal items should lead to a significantly larger drop in clothing/shoes prices compared to JulyFri, 22 Jul 2011 16:52:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-07-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-06-24.htmlWe confirm our forecast that eurozone headline inflation will stabilize at 2.7% in June. Risks are tilted to the upside. The flash estimate is due next Thursday. June CPI in Saxony (+0.1% mom), the first German state to release its inflation numbers, is consistent with our eurozone call. Euro-denominated oil prices have dropped 8% from mid-June. This lowers slightly our near-term inflation path. Our preliminary estimate for July signals a further moderate easing in eurozone headline inflationFri, 24 Jun 2011 16:15:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-06-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-06-10.htmlNational data released so far suggest that eurozone inflation will be confirmed at 2.7% yoy in May. On the ex-tobacco index, we expect 2.8% yoy (0.0% mom). Still missing French data (out on Wednesday) represent the main risk to these forecasts. The eurozone final HICP release is due for publication next Thursday. We assume that core inflation – ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – accelerated 0.1pp to 1.5%. Energy slowed down on declining oil prices whereas food inflation probablyFri, 10 Jun 2011 14:19:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-06-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-03-25.htmlThe flash estimate for eurozone March inflation is due next Thursday. Our forecast remains 2.5% yoy, with upside risks. Our forecast is above consensus (at the time of writing, the Bloomberg survey is 2.3%), and this may be due to our assumptions on core inflation. As we explained last week, in February core inflation – ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – was weaker than expected and dropped by 0.1pp to 1.0%. We think that the decline was technical, and related to the new methodologyFri, 25 Mar 2011 13:46:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-03-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-03-21.htmlEurozone inflation in February was confirmed at 2.4% yoy (vs. 2.3% in January), with prices up 0.4% on a monthly basis. On the ex tobacco index, the yoy rate accelerated to 2.4% from 2.2%. Data details show a pick-up in food inflation from 1.5% to 2.0%, with energy inflation accelerating to 13.1% from 12.0%. This means that non-core items added 0.15-0.20pp to headline inflation. Core inflation – ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco –was weaker than expected and dropped by 0.1pp to 1.0%. Mon, 21 Mar 2011 11:28:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-03-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-02-18.htmlEurozone January inflation should be confirmed at 2.4% yoy, with risks skewed towards a downward revision. Among the largest countries, only France has not yet published January HICP figures. The eurozone final release is due on 28 February. Brent prices continue to rise: in euro-denominated terms, they are up 3% since last week. In the eurozone, this adds another 0.05pp to our near-term inflation projections. The February reading should show a further inflation acceleration to 2.5%. WeFri, 18 Feb 2011 14:29:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-02-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-02-11.htmlNational data released so far suggest that eurozone inflation will be confirmed at 2.4% yoy in January, with prices down 0.6% vs. December. On the ex-tobacco index, we expect 2.3% yoy (-0.6% mom). Still missing French data represent the main risk to these forecasts. The eurozone final HICP release is due for publication on 28 February. In the eurozone, the February reading seems a very close call, with headline inflation hovering between 2.4% and 2.5% yoy. At the time of writing, 2.5% seemsFri, 11 Feb 2011 15:56:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-02-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-01-28.v02.htmlEurozone inflation is bound to accelerate further at the beginning of the year. Our January forecast for the eurozone has been bouncing back and forth in the last couple of weeks. After the relatively soft German data released yesterday, we think the flash estimate will show a 2.3% reading, but risks are clearly skewed to the upside (unrounded figure: 2.34%). Last week we had penciled in 2.4% (unrounded figure: 2.35%). On the ex-tobacco index, we see an acceleration from 2.1% to 2.2%. UpwardFri, 28 Jan 2011 11:38:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-01-28.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-01-21.htmlWe confirm our view that eurozone inflation will accelerate further at the beginning of the year. With respect to last week, we have upped slightly our forecast for January, from 2.3% yoy to 2.4%. However, this change reflects mostly rounding (the unrounded figure is currently 2.35%). On the ex-tobacco index, we see an acceleration from 2.1% to 2.3%. We will finalize both projections next week. Upward pressure on the yoy inflation rate in January should be driven mostly by the food component,Fri, 21 Jan 2011 12:32:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-01-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-01-14.htmlThis is our first update after the Christmas break, and today’s main message is that the near-term inflation picture isdeteriorating fast: some of the upside risks that we identified in our 2011 Outlook are now materializing. This is mostly due to energy, with Brent prices significantly exceeding our expectations and now approaching USD 100p/b. To take into account the latest developments, we raise our 2011 projections - in the eurozone, we now see an average of 2.1% on the headline and 2.0%Fri, 14 Jan 2011 18:46:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2011-01-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-12-10.htmlNext week, the final reading of eurozone November inflation should confirm the preliminary 1.9% yoy. Prices should be up 0.1% mom. We think that the acceleration in food prices was offset by a base-effect-driven decline in energy inflation. Core prices (ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) probably remained at 1.1% yoy. Looking beyond the November data, we note that energy-driven upside risks are starting to materialize, with the price of gasoline and heating oil up strongly in the last fewFri, 10 Dec 2010 11:36:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-12-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-12-03.htmlEurozone headline inflation in November probably held steady at 1.9% yoy. This is a slight upward revision to the forecast we published last week (1.8% with upside risks), which is mostly explained by the firm German HICP reading out today. The flash estimate for the eurozone is due on Tuesday. Our forecast is consistent with 1.8% inflation on the ex-tobacco index. In the last few days, oil prices have resumed rising, while the EUR has weakened vs. the USD. This has pushed the price ofFri, 03 Dec 2010 15:48:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-12-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-11-26.htmlEurozone headline inflation in November probably held steady at 1.9% yoy. This is a slight upward revision to the forecast we published last week (1.8% with upside risks), which is mostly explained by the firm German HICP reading out today. The flash estimate for the eurozone is due on Tuesday. Our forecast is consistent with 1.8% inflation on the ex-tobacco index. In the last few days, oil prices have resumed rising, while the EUR has weakened vs. the USD. This has pushed the price ofFri, 26 Nov 2010 14:17:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-11-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-11-19.htmlEurozone October inflation was confirmed at 1.9% yoy, the highest reading in almost two years. Both energy and food inflation were in line with our projections, while core prices (ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) surprised to the upside and recorded a further slight acceleration to 1.1% yoy from 1.0% – the cyclical low was hit at 0.8% in April-May. In the November issue of our Euro Compass published yesterday, we took stock of recent signs of core inflation strength and revised ourFri, 19 Nov 2010 18:29:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-11-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-11-08.htmlWe confirm our view that the eurozone October flash estimate (reported at 1.9%) suffers from some downside risks. The final release is due on November 16. In the eurozone, the recent increase in euro-denominated oil prices poses some upside risks to our near-term projections, although for the time being we stick to our year-end inflation target of 1.8% yoy.Mon, 08 Nov 2010 09:08:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-11-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-10-29.htmlThe flash estimate showed that eurozone inflation in October was a tad higher than we had expected, showing an acceleration to 1.9% yoy vs. the previous 1.8%. We and consensus had penciled in a stable outcome. On a monthly basis, prices probably rose 0.3%. The flash estimate is consistent with HICP ex tobacco printing at 1.8% yoy. Judging from the limited information available at the country level, we think that the upside surprise with respect to our forecast was mostly driven by core items,Fri, 29 Oct 2010 10:59:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-10-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-10-25.htmlWe have refined our inflation forecasts for October. We see the eurozone HICP flash estimate showing a stabilization of the inflation rate at 1.8% yoy. The release is due for publication next Friday. On the ex-tobacco index, we expect 1.7% yoy, with risks tilted to the upside. On a monthly basis, prices should be up 0.3% on both indices. In October, we have penciled in moderately higher energy inflation, a broad stabilization in food inflation, and an unchanged reading on core inflation withMon, 25 Oct 2010 09:41:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-10-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-10-18.htmlAs expected, eurozone inflation was confirmed at 1.8% yoy in September. HICP ex tobacco printed at 1.7% yoy. On both indices, prices were up 0.2% mom. The breakdown was very much in line with our working assumptions. Food inflation moved sideways (1.2% yoy vs. 1.1%), with seasonally adjusted data showing a deceleration from July-August, when the food price dynamic was affected by a heat wave. Core prices were stable at 1.0% yoy. We expect headline inflation to stabilize in October: ourMon, 18 Oct 2010 08:18:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-10-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-10-04.htmlThe flash estimate for eurozone September HICP showed an acceleration to 1.8% yoy vs. the previous 1.6%, in line with our and consensus expectations. This is the highest yoy reading since November 2008, and is consistent with a 0.2% price increase on a monthly basis. HICP ex tobacco should print at 1.7% yoy. We expect the inflation acceleration to have been driven by an unfavorable base effect on energy. Both food and core inflation should have moved sideways. In Italy, September CPI came inMon, 04 Oct 2010 08:31:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-10-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-09-10.htmlNational HICP data so far available suggest little risk of a revision to the eurozone August flash estimate. The final release out on Wednesday should therefore confirm the preliminary 1.6% yoy, with the ex-tobacco reading showing a slowdown to1.5% yoy. On a monthly basis, prices probably rose 0.2% on both metrics. The whole inflation slowdown should have been energy-driven, while food inflation likely posted a further moderate acceleration in yoy terms and core inflation held steady at 1%.Fri, 10 Sep 2010 18:27:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-09-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-09-03.htmlThe flash estimate for eurozone August HICP came in at 1.6% yoy (slowing from 1.7% in July), in line with our and consensus forecast. The final reading will be published on September 15, and we see risks tilted towards a downward revision of the preliminary estimate. We confirm our view that the whole inflation slowdown last month should have been energy-driven, while food inflation likely posted a further moderate acceleration in yoy terms and core inflation held steady at 1%. Our preliminaryFri, 03 Sep 2010 10:16:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-09-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-08-27.htmlThe flash estimate for eurozone August HICP is due on Tuesday. We have penciled in a moderate inflation slowdown to 1.6% yoy vs. the previous 1.7% yoy. On the ex-tobacco index, the deceleration should be a bit more pronounced (1.5% vs. 1.7%). In both cases, prices should be up 0.2% on a monthly basis. The whole inflation slowdown should be energy-driven. We estimate that energy prices in August were about flat on a monthly basis, but a base effect will push down the yearly rate by 2pp. ThisFri, 27 Aug 2010 18:18:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-08-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-07-30.htmlThe flash estimate for eurozone July HICP was reported at 1.7% yoy, vs. 1.4% in June. The outcome is a tad higher than our 1.6% projection, but we had highlighted upside risks to our forecast yesterday, after the release of the Spanish HICP reading. As always with the flash estimate, no details are yet available. However, judging from German and Italian data, it seems that the upward surprise was split between non-core and core inflation, which probably stood unchanged at 0.9%. Among noncoreFri, 30 Jul 2010 12:12:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-07-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-07-23.htmlWe have finalized our inflation forecasts for July. In the eurozone, we confirm our call for an acceleration in the headline rate to 1.6% yoy vs. 1.4%. On the ex-tobacco gauge, we see 1.5% yoy vs. 1.3%. The flash estimate will be released on 30 July. We expect the bulk of the acceleration to come from an energy base effect, while food inflation probably continued its moderate upward trajectory (for more details on this topic, please turn to the July issue of our Euro Compass). Core inflationFri, 23 Jul 2010 10:05:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-07-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-07-16.htmlEurozone June inflation was confirmed at 1.4% yoy, a 0.2pp deceleration from May that was totally energy driven. Consumer prices were flat on a monthly basis. HICP ex-tobacco printed at 109.70 (flat mom, +1.3% yoy). As expected, food inflation exited negative territory for the first time in a year and now stands at +0.2% yoy. The core rate – ex food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – was a touch stronger than we had thought and accelerated by 0.1pp to 0.9% yoy. In the coming months, the trend forFri, 16 Jul 2010 10:37:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-07-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-07-09.htmlEven though French HICP data are still missing, we see a relatively low risk of revision to the eurozone June flash estimate (reported at 1.4% yoy). The final reading is due for publication next week. When details will be made available, we expect to see that the 0.2pp inflation deceleration was entirely driven by a base effect on energy. Food inflation probably exited negative territory, while the core rate was stable at 0.8% yoy. Our preliminary forecast for July eurozone inflation stillFri, 09 Jul 2010 11:02:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-07-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-07-02.htmlThe flash estimate for eurozone inflation in June came in at 1.4% yoy (from 1.6% in May), matching our forecast. No details are yet available, but we assume that all the slowdown was driven by a base effect on energy. Core inflation probably held steady at 0.8% yoy, while food inflation should have recorded the first non-negative yoy reading in a year. The preliminary estimate for Italy’s June CPI was also in line with our forecast, so we leave unchanged our FOI projections. Our preliminaryFri, 02 Jul 2010 13:14:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-07-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-06-25.htmlWe have refined our eurozone inflation forecasts for June. On the headline rate, we now expect a deceleration from 1.6% yoy to 1.4%. Last week, we had penciled in 1.3% with upside risks. On the ex-tobacco index, we see a decline from 1.5% yoy to 1.3%.  All the expected inflation slowdown comes from energy, mostly due to a base effect. This means that the downward inflation move is not going to mark the beginning of an easing trend. After one year, food inflation will probably exitFri, 25 Jun 2010 09:16:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-06-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-06-18.htmlEurozone inflation in May was confirmed at 1.6% yoy, vs. the April reading of 1.5%. Data details were broadly as expected. The core rate was unchanged at 0.8% yoy, food inflation came in very weak (stable at -0.2% yoy, with unprocessed food costs adjusting downwards sharply), while energy inflation accelerated only marginally. Inflation in the eurozone will slow in June, largely due to a decline in energy inflation related to a base effect. Our preliminary forecast remains 1.3% yoy, but risksFri, 18 Jun 2010 11:15:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-06-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-06-11.htmlWith HICP figures already published in all the main countries, it looks like the risk of an upward revision to the eurozone May flash estimate (1.6%) have decreased significantly. For the final reading (out on June 16), we expect core inflation to remain stable at 0.8% yoy, while food inflation will stay very weak due to a correction in the price of unprocessed food. We confirm our view that headline inflation in the eurozone will slow in June, largely due to falling energy prices. OurFri, 11 Jun 2010 10:00:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/communication@unicreditgroup.eu (UniCredit Group)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-inflation-update/2010-06-11.html