Eurostat revised down its estimate for eurozone September inflation
Fri, Oct 19 2012, 12:58 GMT
by
Marco Valli
|
UniCredit Group
- Eurostat revised down its estimate for eurozone September inflation from 2.7% to 2.6%, in line with our expectations.
- In October, eurozone inflation will probably start slowing, as easing energy pressures and positive base effects more than offset the 2pp hike in the Dutch VAT. Our preliminary estimate is for a deceleration to 2.4%, with risks tilted to the upside.
- In Italy, where the VAT hike of mid-September 2011 will drop out of the yoy comparison, FOI inflation is set to shift down a gear (we predict 2.8% vs. 3.1%).
- (*) Our FOI projections do not include the 1pp VAT hike in July 2013. We will formally change our forecasts (including the impact on eurozone inflation) after the bill is approved by parliament.