• We finalize today our eurozone inflation forecasts for November. Next Friday, with the German data already available, we will refine our call, if needed.

  • In November, the eurozone inflation rate will turn again positive. We confirm our estimate of +0.5% yoy (+0.4% yoy on the extobacco index), and see broadly balanced risks to this forecast. The flash estimate is due on November 30.

  • The rise in the inflation rate will be entirely an energy story. We think energy prices will be up around 1.5% mom, but the yearly rate should jump 6pp due to a markedly unfavorable base effect: this will lift overall inflation by 0.6pp. Food inflation probably bottomed out already in October, while core inflation could ease by 0.1pp to 1.1%.

  • In December, the energy base effect will weigh heavily again and push the inflation rate to 1%.