• On Monday, Eurostat will release the final estimate for eurozone October HICP. After the French data out today, we continue to see a low risk of a revision to the flash estimate (-0.1% yoy). On a monthly basis, HICP should be up 0.2/0.3% (the call is very close).

  • The details will probably show that energy added 0.25pp to the headline rate – due to an unfavorable base effect – while core inflation remained at 1.2% yoy.

  • In November, the eurozone inflation rate will turn again positive. For the time being, we confirm our estimate of +0.5% yoy. We will refine the call next week.

  • In the November issue of our Euro Compass published yesterday, we argue that the strong rise in the inflation rate between November and December 2009 is almost entirely an energy story. As a matter of fact, continued lack of firms’ pricing power is consistent with our view that core inflation will decelerate also next year. Moreover, leading indicators for food inflation keep signaling no meaningful pressures for at least the next three-six months.