http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2008-12-16.htmlAgenda Market overview Emerging Markets remain under pressure and a look at some of the more spectacular stories Macro overview The bad news: The horrific growth slowdown The good news: Inflation is coming down fast Q&A sessionTue, 16 Dec 2008 14:25:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2008-12-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2008-11-19.htmlAgenda Markets update IMF has been busy Financial markets plummeted Economic indicators turned more sour Regional outlook EMEA CEE/Baltics CIS LATAM Asia Q&A sessionWed, 19 Nov 2008 15:08:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2008-11-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2008-10-16.htmlAgenda - Markets status - It all started in Reykjavik                 - Travel itinerary for the IMF - a look at credit default swaps - Regional outlook                 - EMEA                         - CEE/BalticsThu, 16 Oct 2008 15:59:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2008-10-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2008-01-07.htmlUS outlook has worsened Since our last EM-briefer, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further, and we have, as consequence, revised our forecast further down for GDP growth in the US and Euroland. We now believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 1.0%-point during H1 08 and the ECB will start cutting in H2 08. With both the Fed and the ECB cutting rates, the important question is if the monetary tightening cycle in EM is close to its peak and if possible could start easingMon, 07 Jan 2008 15:58:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2008-01-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-12-03.htmlAnother month with high volatility November brought renewed turmoil to the global financial markets and the impact was also felt on the Emerging Markets. Initially the traditional high-beta markets Turkey and Brazil came under pressure. It seems like the markets have calmed down a bit now on renewed hope that the Federal Reserve will come to the rescue once again with rate cuts. How will EM weather external shocks? Going forward it is obvious that the global credit crunch will also hit theMon, 03 Dec 2007 14:43:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-12-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-11-02.htmlThe positive EM sentiment continued in October... October has brought another Fed cut, continued USD weakness, and surging commodity prices. The positive Emerging Markets (EM) sentiment we saw in September has carried on into October as most EM currencies have moved more strongly and local equity markets have set new records. Higher commodity prices have indeed supported external balances in those countries that are net-exporters of commodities, and have thus stimulated the respectiveFri, 02 Nov 2007 17:20:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-10-02.htmlA strong rebound • Over the last month we have seen a remarkable rebound in Emerging Markets sparked to a large extent by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive 50bp rate cut on September 18. • The cut has boosted the global stock markets as well as Emerging Markets as they often trade on the back of changes in global risk appetite. Asia looks strong • Looking ahead we would focus on two sets of news. First, the earnings season continues, which adds to event risks. Second, we still need to see whatTue, 02 Oct 2007 06:41:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-10-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-08-02.htmlEmerging markets are vulnerable... Recent turmoil in the sub-prime mortgage market and credit market in general could be regarded as the start of re-pricing of risks on a global scale and risk premiums returning to “normal” levels or worse the start of a global credit crunch. As yet the impact of the credit scare has been modest on emerging markets but they are vulnerable and could be next in line. ...and focus should return to fundamentals The risk of further worsening of global creditThu, 02 Aug 2007 06:51:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-08-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-06-08.htmlTen-year treasury yields climbed a whopping 17bp yesterday as the fixed income markets sold off across the board. This morning we have seen more softness in the US bond market, which now leaves 10-year yields at 5.24%, while two-year yields have risen to 5.04%. Rising US bond yields normally tend to weigh negatively on high-yield / high-beta Emerging Markets (EM) currencies such as BRL, MXN, IDR, PHP, ZAR, TRY, HUF etc. Remember that the broad-based sell-off in May-June last year was precededFri, 08 Jun 2007 16:06:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-06-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-06-01.htmlChina and Kuwait allow for more FX flexibility Over the past month Kuwait has changed its fixed exchange rate policy from a USD peg to a peg against a basket of currencies. The mood in Emerging Markets has remained bullish, driven by a high risk appetite. The USD sensitive currencies in Asia and LATAM have been the big winners, driven by the USD rebound and the appreciation of the renminbi. Others are likely to follow – especially Russia Other countries are likely to try to dampen inflationaryFri, 01 Jun 2007 17:05:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-06-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-05-02.htmlTurkish tension spoils carry fun Going into April, the financial markets looked quite supportive for the Emerging Markets. The positive sentiment gained support from a relatively strong global growth picture, with Europe performing better than expected and China re-accelerating. Therefore the high yielders like BRL and TRY continued to perform very well, bringing them to very strong levels. Our concern is when looking ahead these levels are unsustainable and that some correction cannot beWed, 02 May 2007 08:50:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-05-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-04-02.htmlMarch was an eventful month for Emerging Markets... It has been a dramatic month in the Emerging Market universe. The sell-off in risky assets that began at the end of February continued in the first weeks of March, with the high yielding currencies suffering. However, in the second half of March everything reversed: high-yielding currencies rebounded, the yen weakened and equities started to perform relative to bonds again. It seems that the crisis with a rise in risk aversion is over forMon, 02 Apr 2007 16:04:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-04-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-02-01.htmlIn the previous edition of Emerging Markets Briefer we suggested that the Central and Eastern European markets would lose momentum relative to the LATAM and Emerging Asian markets on the back of rising optimism about the US economy relative to Europe. Economic data released during January have clearly supported this view . with US numbers continuing to surprise on the upside, while European data have generally been fairly soft. This ongoing shift in the perception US vs. European growth hasThu, 01 Feb 2007 11:56:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2007-02-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2006-12-01.htmlNervousness triggered by USD weakness... In last month’s Briefer, we wrote that the EM markets would be "Waiting for the bandwagon" in November. This bandwagon might very well have arrived through the continued dollar weakness. The dollar weakness has accelerated over the last week and this has sparked a wave of renewed risk aversion in the global financial markets - especially in the LATAM and Turkish FX markets. ...should continue in December We believe that the USD weakness will continue,Fri, 01 Dec 2006 16:12:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2006-12-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2006-11-02.htmlRisk appetite was in the driver’s seat… October saw a dramatic change in market sentiment as high global risk appetite took over as the dominant theme, with volatility across asset classes and Emerging Market bond spreads at record lows. Especially high yield/high volatility markets - such as the South African rand, the Turkish Lira, and the Hungarian forint - benefited from this. …waiting for triggers in November November will be a wait-and-see month, with investors searching for the triggersThu, 02 Nov 2006 09:00:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2006-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2006-10-02.htmlRisk aversion on the rise… Demonstrations in Hungary, the de facto collapse of the Polish government, the military coup in Thailand, and new political scandals in Brazil led to increased risk aversion in September. Falling energy prices in September have affected external balances in Emerging Markets negatively in LATAM and CIS countries and positively in Asian countries. …and New Europe will scare investors Demonstrations in Hungary, the de facto collapse of the Polish government, theMon, 02 Oct 2006 15:24:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2006-10-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2006-09-06.htmlCarry has been the name of the game Looking back at August Continued focus on carry trades driven by the “Fed on hold”-view High volatility and high yield currencies like TRY and BRL has outperformed - the same can be said for the high yield fixed income markets Among the positive surprises have been especially SKK that have appreciated on expectations of higher rates HUF has suffered due to fiscal concerns Concerns over the C/A has contributed to KRW under performance Risk aversion to riseWed, 06 Sep 2006 14:49:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emerging-markets-outlook/2006-09-06.html