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Emerging Markets outlook
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Turkish risks, but no delight
Wed, May 2 2007, 08:50 GMT
by Danske Research EmergingMarkets Team
Turkish tension spoils carry fun
- Going into April, the financial markets looked quite supportive for the Emerging Markets. The positive sentiment gained support from a relatively strong global growth picture, with Europe performing better than expected and China re-accelerating.
- Therefore the high yielders like BRL and TRY continued to perform very well, bringing them to very strong levels. Our concern is when looking ahead these levels are unsustainable and that some correction cannot be avoided at some point when a trigger arrives.
Will Turkish jitters spill-over to Emerging Markets?
- This trigger might very well be the Turkish presidential elections, which have led to a sharp rise in risk premiums in the Turkish markets.
- If the situation in Turkey makes a turn for the worse it is very likely that this will spill-over significantly into other Emerging Markets - especially the other high-yielding crowded trades such as South Africa, Brazil and Iceland.
Published on Wed, May 2 2007, 08:53 GMT
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