http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-02-09.htmlOpposition to Putin is growing Following the Russian Duma elections in early December there have been protests against what opposition forces are seeing as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s monopoly on power. In a special in this week’s EMEA Weekly, we take a closer look at the demonstrations and potential financial market impact. Data to support call for Polish rate hikes This week the Polish central bank (NBP) announced that in line with our expectation (and market consensus) it had kept itsThu, 09 Feb 2012 15:07:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-02-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-02-02.htmlNBP likely to maintain hawkish rhetoric Some hawkish members of the Polish central bank’s monetary policy council (RPP) are likely to call for the need for rate hikes soon when the council meets next week. Within the past month, a number of RPP members have expressed a view that rate hikes now are more likely than rate cuts. The sudden hawkish rhetoric is somewhat surprising given that both the Federal Reserve and the ECB in particular have moved in a more dovish direction. However, theThu, 02 Feb 2012 14:40:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-02-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-01-26.htmlEMEA FX: Where to put your money Following the rocky end to 2011, the start of the current year has seen a relief rally across the spectrum in the EMEA FX universe, while the implied option volatilities have eased considerably. Below, we look at three particular EMEA currencies: the Turkish lira, the Polish zloty and the Russian rouble, where we believe there is good potential for further gains (see pages 2-3 for details). Czech and Romanian central banks taking the stage next week We have twoThu, 26 Jan 2012 12:12:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-01-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-01-20.htmlTwo rate decisions – both on Tuesday – will dominate the EMEA agenda next week. Most interest will undoubtedly be on the Hungarian rate decision after the recent spike in volatility in the Hungarian markets on the back of the Hungarian government’s decision to pass a new central bank law. The law has been heavily criticized by the European Commission as, according to the EU, it is in breach of EU rules and limits the independence of the central bank. This week, the Commission said it hasFri, 20 Jan 2012 11:27:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-01-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-01-12.htmlInflation is too high in South Africa, but SARB will remain on hold The main event in the EMEA market next week will be the rate decision from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). While most central banks in the world are contemplating renewed easing of monetary policy on the back of the euro crisis, the task for the SARB is somewhat more complicated. While the growth outlook for South Africa is challenging, it is in no way catastrophic. We expect GDP to grow 2.5-3% y/y this year – not muchThu, 12 Jan 2012 18:56:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-01-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-01-05.htmlThis week turmoil in the Hungarian markets has increasingly received attention in the wider European markets and there has been considerable spill-over to other central and eastern European (CEE) markets. Whether or not this is fair is open to debate, but with this kind of volatility some spill-over to, for example the Polish markets, appears to be difficult to avoid. The Hungarian markets have remained under serious pressure and it is increasingly looking like investors are indiscriminatelyThu, 05 Jan 2012 14:20:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2012-01-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-12-15.htmlThis week, Polish central bank governor Mr. Marek Belka visited Copenhagen to speak at a seminar co-organised by the Polish Embassy in Denmark and Danske Bank. In this week’s EMEA Weekly, we feature a special that focuses on Mr. Belka’s insightful comments on the current state of the Polish economy and in particular on the Polish banking sector. Please continue to pages 3 to 4 to read our special. Also in this edition, we are re-publishing the important highlights of our recently updatedThu, 15 Dec 2011 21:21:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-12-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-12-09.htmlMacro outlook While the focus in the markets is firmly on the European debt crisis and, in particular, tomorrow’s European summit, next week sees a number of scheduled economic data releases from the EMEA region. For details on these, see page 3. Russian election special – how much can you cheat? Parliamentary elections held in Russia last Sunday have had surprising consequences. Although we were not surprised by the result itself, with the ruling party United Russia losing a lot of support,Fri, 09 Dec 2011 16:32:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-12-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-12-01.htmlEMEA November inflation readings Next week we are due to see November inflation numbers in the three Baltic States, as well as in Turkey, Russia and the Czech Republic. We expect Baltic inflation pressures to have eased in November, while Turkish inflation is set to remain elevated and Russian inflation to remain in check (see page 3). NBP set to keep the rates unchanged Next week the Polish Central Bank (NBP) is due to announce its interest rates. It has been more or less forced by theThu, 01 Dec 2011 20:19:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-12-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-11-17.htmlCentral Bank of Russia is expected to keep rates on hold Global uncertainty remains high, but the Russian economy has continued on a steady growth path. In addition to this, credit growth continues to accelerate despite global jitters and loans to households and firms are already increasing more than 30% and 23% y/y in nominal terms, respectively. Unsurprisingly, the central bank is getting a bit worried of this declining savings rate. Thus, we are not expecting lower rates from Russia despiteThu, 17 Nov 2011 13:13:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-11-10.htmlCentral European growth far from impressive Next week sees the release of Q3 GDP numbers in a number of CEE countries. While the global markets’ focus is firmly on the turns and twists of the eurozone debt crisis, we look at the CEE growth estimates and fail to find much to cheer about. For details see page 3. Strong Russian numbers expected despite global jitters After a rather tame growth performance in H1, Russian GDP growth has likely accelerated clearly in Q3. We expect growth to haveThu, 10 Nov 2011 21:56:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-11-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-10-27.htmlRussian central bank is likely to be on hold The Central bank of Russia is expected to leave rates unchanged at Friday’s meeting. Strong economic performance during the past couple of months together with rapid credit growth give little room for loosening policy. (For details see page 3.) CNB should seriously consider monetary easing Next week will see the policy rate decisions from both Czech and Romanian central banks. Growth continues to disappoint in the Czech Republic and inflationThu, 27 Oct 2011 21:11:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-10-20.htmlSimor's challenge András Simor, the governor of the Hungarian central bank (MNB), is due to meet next week with his colleagues at the MNB’s Monetary Council. They will make an announcement on monetary policy action. Simor is in a tricky situation. (Read more on page 3.) Baltic special: Lithuanian macro outlook This week, we have updated our macro forecasts on the Lithuanian economy to include the latest economic releases. Our new forecasts are presented in our Lithuanian macro Monitor. (OnThu, 20 Oct 2011 20:57:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-10-13.htmlTCMB on hold for the time being Next week the Turkish central bank (TCMB) is due to convene for its October round of rate-setting meetings. Since cutting the policy rates at an interim rate setting meeting in August by 50 basis points, from 6.25% to 5.75%, to shore up against a slowing in growth and as a pre-emptive measure against the deteriorating external conditions, the TCMB has maintained decidedly dovish rhetoric and has eased both local and foreign currency reserve requirement rates onThu, 13 Oct 2011 20:53:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-10-06.htmlZloty weakness opens opportunities for long-term investors Up until this week’s trading, the Polish zloty had remained under considerable pressure, seeing nearly 10% of its value eroded against the euro since the start of August. Below we recap some of the key reasons why the zloty has been a relative underperformer and point out reasons why zloty weakness offers opportunities with regard to long-term value for investors (for more, please see page 3). More benign inflation outlook across EMEAThu, 06 Oct 2011 19:07:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-10-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-09-30.htmlPoland Recently, the Polish zloty has weakened significantly and this effectively means that monetary conditions have been eased in Poland. As a consequence, the short-term need for rate cuts in Poland has been reduced. Therefore, we also find it likely that the Polish central bank (NBP) will keep its key policy rate unchanged at 4.50% at next week’s Monetary Policy Council meeting. Romanian central bank remains on hold Today, the Romanian central bank kept its benchmark rates unchanged atFri, 30 Sep 2011 11:54:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-09-23.htmlRouble continues to be under pressure During the past few weeks, the main issue in rouble rates market has been the tightening rouble funding and the way it is moving especially FX swaps and cross currency swaps higher. The CBR repo rate, that was surprisingly lowered 25bp last week, is becoming the most important policy rate, as repo allotments have increased significantly. Month-end tax payments are adding on the pressure, as more rouble liquidity is needed (for more, please see page 3).Fri, 23 Sep 2011 12:10:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-09-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-09-16.htmlAmid the easing bias, EMEA central banks on hold for now The coming week is scheduled to see several EMEA central banks – namely South African, Turkish, Czech and Hungarian banks – announcing their policy rates. While the double impact of slowing global activity levels and European debt crisis continue to exert pressure on the EMEA central bank to engage in outright easing policies or to maintain an ongoing easing momentum, as is the case in Turkey, we expect all the respective central banksFri, 16 Sep 2011 12:37:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-09-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-09-09.htmlSerbian central bank becomes the first in CEE to cut rates This week the Serbian central bank (NBS) cut its key policy rate by 50bp to 11.25%. The NBS is the first Central and Eastern European (CEE) central bank to reverse the tightening cycle and is now cutting rates. Russian August economic data is likely to come out strong Next week, plenty of important data is due to be published in Russia. We continue to keep an eye on investment activity and construction sector growth, as we have beenFri, 09 Sep 2011 12:27:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-09-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-09-02.htmlRate decisions in Russia and Poland - both likely to keep rates unchanged Next week there will be rate decisions in both Poland and Russia. We expect the Central Bank of Russia to keep rates on hold for now and also for the rest of the year. The Polish central bank is likely to keep the key policy rate unchanged as well, but we expect the NBP’s Monetary Policy Council (RPP) to soften its rhetoric and looking ahead we see a rate cut coming – maybe before the end of the year, or in Q1 12.Fri, 02 Sep 2011 18:38:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-09-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-08-19.v02.htmlMNB on hold, but rate cut looks tempting On Tuesday, the Hungarian central bank (MNB) is due to announce its rate decision. In line with consensus, we expect the MNB to keep its key policy rate on hold at 6%. Hungarian inflation has surprised on the downside recently and it now looks set to remain close to the MNB’s official inflation target of 3%. Hence, in our view, while there has not been any room for monetary easing, this might now be gradually emerging. TCMB on hold as well following theFri, 19 Aug 2011 13:30:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-08-19.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-08-12.htmlPolish central bank likely to CUT rates over the coming year Our EMEA Monetary Policy Tracker (MPT) continues to indicate that interest rates could actually be cut across the region – particularly in Poland where the MPT is now pointing to a 50bp rate cut. We have been reluctant to put this into our forecast as Polish inflation is still running above the Polish central bank’s official inflation target of 2.5%. However, given the sharp deterioration in the global financial situation andFri, 12 Aug 2011 12:14:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-08-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-07-29.htmlRate cuts could soon be back on the agenda Over the past couple of weeks we have seen a rather dramatic s change in the outlook for monetary policy in the EMEA region. Hence, a constant flow of disappointing macroeconomic data and clear easing of inflationary pressure combined have changed market expectations for monetary tightening from the ECB and the Federal Reserve is clearly taking some pressure off the EMEA central banks for monetary tightening (for more on this, see  pdf page 3).Fri, 29 Jul 2011 12:22:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-07-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-07-22.htmlIt's getting boring - Hungarian central bank to stay on hold The Hungarian central bank is due to hold its monthly Monetary Council meeting next week and announce its rate decision on Tuesday. In line with the consensus expectation we expect the MNB to stay on hold next week and keep its key policy rate at 6.0%. As such, we do not think there will be any major market impact on the back of the rate decision (see more on page 3 pdf). Poland indicates slowdown and easing of inflationary pressuresFri, 22 Jul 2011 16:26:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-07-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-07-15.htmlCEE sees price pressures ease with falling food prices This week has seen the release of June CPI across the CEE region. Following the moderation in June Baltic CPI growth numbers and a notable downside surprise in Turkish headline inflation numbers last week, Czech, Hungarian and Polish consumer prices for June have followed suit, moderating from May readings (see pdf page 4). Polish industrial production numbers ahead Polish industrial output numbers from the month of June are due to beFri, 15 Jul 2011 12:09:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-07-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-07-01.htmlCBR to continue with hawkish tone Based on weekly figures, Russian year-on-year inflation in June is likely to slow to 9.5% from 9.6% in May. This is clearly positive, as we expected the easing in inflation to start only in August, due to base effect. However, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is likely to be more interested already about the second round of inflation. (See page 3 for details). NBP to remain on hold, but not for long Next week will see the Polish Monetary Policy Council meetingFri, 01 Jul 2011 14:24:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-07-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-06-24.htmlEMEA Summer Weather Forecast: Partly cloudy, with global growth slowing and occasional showers with debt worries, but generally sunny TCMB drops further behind the curve As expected, the Turkish central bank (TCMB) left its key policy rate unchanged at 6.25% at Thursday’s rate setting meeting. However, contrary to many market participants’ expectations, the TCMB did not increase the reserve requirement (although announcements in the near future cannot be completely ruled out) and failed toFri, 24 Jun 2011 12:24:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-06-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-06-17.htmlNext week three central banks in the region will announce their rate decisions. In line with the consensus expectations, we expect all three central banks – Hungarian, Czech and Turkish – to leave rates unchanged. Although we expect unchanged rates, the outlook for monetary policy is somewhat different in the three countries. However, what all three central banks have in common is that there seems to be some concern about the ongoing soft patch in the global manufacturing cycle and theFri, 17 Jun 2011 14:57:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-06-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-06-10.htmlOur Turkish headline “Four more years” captures the essence of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Turkey, to be held on Sunday, 12 June: The current governing party Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP) under the leadership of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is headed for a third election victory and the continuity of AKP’s rule for another term is now all but a foregone conclusion. From a market perspective, an AKP victory will guarantee the continuity of the current economic policies andFri, 10 Jun 2011 18:01:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-06-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-05-27.htmlPotential for further weakness in CEE currencies With the thin FX market liquidity conditions that tend to prevail in the summer months approaching, our EMEA FX Scorecard has given signs of moderate short-term weakness across the EMEA currency space. Multiple factors in global markets – ranging from continuing euro-area debt worries and disappointing Chinese PMI numbers to still-lacklustre commodity prices following the correction seen in early May – have combined to restrain the general riskFri, 27 May 2011 14:49:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-05-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-05-20.htmlHave a look at EM Bond Snapshot! This week we launched the first edition of our new publication, EM Bond Snapshot. It will be a monthly publication and will be released in connection with our updated forecasts in the EM Briefer. In it we present a preferred emerging markets bonds view based on our expectations for both EM fixed income and FX markets developments.  We will re-allocate the model once a month. Initially, our EM Bond Snapshot will include bonds from Poland, Hungary, Russia,Fri, 20 May 2011 12:20:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-05-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-05-13.htmlWe expect the Hungarian central bank to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 6.00% in connection with the MNB’s Monetary Council meeting on Monday. This is also the consensus expectation. The MNB seems to think that it will be able to fulfil its inflation target of 3% before the end of 2012. That said, sooner or later we think the MNB will realise the need for monetary tightening in order to re-establish its credibility and therefore we continue to recommend investors position themselves for aFri, 13 May 2011 14:39:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-05-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-04-29.htmlEMEA fixed income markets untouched by Greece Despite increased concerns regarding a possible restructuring of Greek debt the spill-over effect on EMEA markets has been extremely limited. In fact EMEA yields have decreased all week due to strong global risk appetite and lower Euroland and US yields. We argue later that even though the Greek situation is clearly problematic markets have largely discounted some kind of debt restructuring or partial Greek default and as such the risk ofFri, 29 Apr 2011 19:00:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-04-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-04-15.htmlUnchanged in Hungary but elevated inflation warrants further monetary tightening As in Poland, inflation surprised on the upside in Hungary in March. In light of this we would be sceptical that inflation will come back to the Hungarian central bank’s (MNB) inflation target of 3% without monetary tightening – as suggested in the MNB’s latest quarterly inflation. Rather, we believe that monetary tightening is needed to bring down inflation in the medium term and sooner than later we believe theFri, 15 Apr 2011 17:30:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-04-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-04-08.htmlInflation to take centre stage next week Next week the focus is expected to turn to inflation numbers for March for a number of countries in the region. The overall picture across the region remains the same - inflationary pressures are increasing, mainly due to the continued rise in energy prices, but some countries are also showing stronger domestic demand - particularly in Poland. The Czech Republic stands out as the country in the region with the least inflationary pressures and inflationFri, 08 Apr 2011 14:57:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-04-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-04-01.htmlPolish tightening cycle continues The Polish central bank’s (NBP) Monetary Policy Council is likely to continue its monetary tightening cycle when it meets next week. Hence, expect a hike of 25bp to 4.00%. The continued tightening of monetary policy is natural as the Polish economy continues to expand relatively robustly and inflation remains well above the NBP’s inflation target of 2.5%. In fact we expect inflation to remain above the target throughout 2011 and most likely also throughoutFri, 01 Apr 2011 13:05:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-04-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-03-25.htmlPoland'ss worrying current account data Next week the Poland Central Statistical Office (GUS) will release current account data for Q4 10. A lot of uncertainty surrounds the Polish current account data at the moment due to extraordinarily large ‘errors and omissions’ on the balance of payment statistics. While this has not resulted in any revisions to the Polish central bank’s current account data, revisions might be made in the GUS data. This could very well be a big (negative) market moverFri, 25 Mar 2011 13:09:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-03-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-03-18.htmlThe global markets continue to experience tremendous uncertainties, as the tragic earthquake and subsequent tsunami’s aftermath in Japan reveals ever growing losses, both in human and in material sense and the ongoing efforts at the Fukushima nuclear plant to contain the radiation leakage and stabilise the reactors are yet to show a conclusive success. The surging yen implied volatilities and the G7 efforts to curb the rapid yen appreciation have added their own contribution to the globalFri, 18 Mar 2011 13:11:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-03-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-03-11.htmlPolish data will underline need for hikes Next week’s Polish data will be quite interesting as they are likely to confirm the need for further monetary tightening. Inflation, labour market and manufacturing data should confirm that the Polish recovery continues unabated and that inflationary pressures are increasing. Overall, inflation now clearly seems to be edging upwards and is likely to reach as much as 5% in the autumn. In our view, inflation is likely to remain above the Polish centralFri, 11 Mar 2011 22:51:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-03-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-03-04.htmlDiverging inflation expectations in CEE countries Next week will see double inflation releases from the CEE area, as we get both the Czech and the Hungarian CPI numbers for February. While we expect Czech inflation to come out only moderately higher than in January, we are looking for more notable acceleration in Hungarian price growth. Trichet's hawkish stance puts pressure on his CEE colleagues As the ECB's rhetoric has decisively turned more hawkish, with an eventual rate hike now comingFri, 04 Mar 2011 16:33:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-weekly/2011-03-04.html