Market movers ahead: Polish numbers on the table next week
Some interesting Polish numbers dominate next week’s calendar. On Monday we will receive data on Polish inflation in February. It is both our and consensus expectation that Polish inflation has dropped significantly in February – we expect it to come out at 3.2% y/y in February vs 3.6% y/y in January. Polish industrial production data is being released on Wednesday. We expect industrial production growth to have picked up a bit in February to 9.0% y/y vs to 8.5% y/y in January.
On Wednesday, the Minutes from the Hungarian central bank (MNB) meeting in February will be published. This could prove to be an interesting read following the 25bp cut of the key policy rate by the MNB in February. The Turkish central bank (TCMB) meets on Thursday. We expect that the TCMB will leave the key policy rate unchanged at 6.50%.
FX Outlook: and this could turn out positive for the Zloty
With somewhat limited newsflow recently, the FX market might turn its eyes on a couple of interesting economic releases in Poland in the coming week. A couple of interesting Polish numbers such as industrial production, wages and inflation are all being released. We expect all these readings to show positive signs for the Polish macro economy which is likely to have a positive impact on the Zloty.
Scorecard trade of the week - Buy PLN/TRY
Last week we recommended buying PLN/TRY based on our EMEA FX Scorecard. The trade has been fairly stable over the course of the week. The PLN continues to be the highest scoring currency and the TRY the lowest scoring currency of the five currencies covered by the Scorecard. We therefore keep our PLN/TRY trade open going into next week.
